Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 301653 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1253 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WHILE THE REGION WILL SEE A COUPLE FRONTAL PASSAGES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE HOT FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE WEEK...BUT SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1255 PM UPDATE...NICE DAY IN PROGRESS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. A WEAK SEABREEZE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NORTH OF PORTLAND. 915 AM UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES A BIT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A PARTLY SUNNY DAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE PASSAGE...BUT MOST MOISTURE AND MORE PRONOUNCED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. 0545 AM UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST. WITH CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY...CHANCES FOR FOG HAVE DIMINISHED...SO HAVE REMOVED EARLY MORNING FOG FROM FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUDS, TEMPS, AND DEW POINTS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING PRODUCING MOSTLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. RADAR SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER GROUND-BASED REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND IN MOST AREAS. FOR EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE COULD BE A WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. LATER THIS MORNING THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ANY SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK TODAY. CURRENTLY CLOUDS ARE LIMITING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY BEFORE DAYBREAK.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE REGION. WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE COOLER VALLEYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE FRONT PASSES. HOWEVER...THE FRONT ISN`T EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION...AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR LATER IN THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE DROP IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY HOWEVER...WITH SOME LOWERING OF THE HUMIDITY AS WELL AFTER A RATHER WARM START TO THE WORKWEEK. WESTERLY GRADIENT WEAKENS RATHER QUICKLY...ALLOWING ONSHORE WINDS TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY COOL ALONG THE SHORELINE TOWNS. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SITUATED OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE ON THURSDAY....BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. CAPE VALUES APPROACH 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...EXCEPT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO PRODUCE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS. THERE MAY BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTH. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

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