Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 260745 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 345 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WEST WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LOW MOVING OVERHEAD FOR THE AFTERNOON. IN THE NEAR TERM...A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS NORTHERN ZONES...FOLLOWED BY NW UPSLOPE FLOW. BUFKIT SOUNDING ANALYSIS AT KBML SHOWS SATURATED LOW LEVELS AND ENOUGH OMEGA TO FORCE UPSLOPE SHOWERS. INITIALLY IT WILL ONLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. FARTHER SE...EXPECT SOME PARTIAL SUN EARLY IN THE DAY. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE DESTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE...AS THE SLIGHT HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR RENEWED CLOUD GROWTH AND A BROKEN DECK TO DEVELOP. COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON...THIS COULD BRIEFLY ALLOW SHOWERS TO CLIMB OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND DRIFT TOWARDS THE COAST. I ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER...BUT THE THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED AND BRIEF.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
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NWLY UPSLOPE CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS...AND SNOW LEVELS DROPPING. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO DUST THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH SNOWFALL. CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION MIXING AND CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP MINS FROM GETTING TOO COLD. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER BRISK AND COOL DAY ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A WEAK S/WV TROUGH ROTATING AROUND LARGER UPPER LOW AND REINVIGORATING UPSLOPE SHOWERS FOR A TIME. HAVE INCREASED POP TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ELEVATIONS AS A RESULT. FOR A BRIEF TIME EARLY MONDAY FREEZING LEVELS MAY BE LOW ENOUGH TO SEE SOME FLAKES FALL FOR THE HIGHER NORTHERN VALLEYS.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING OUR BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO. HOWEVER... DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WHICH WILL LIMIT THE COOLING POTENTIAL. MOST AREAS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON TUESDAY WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S SEEM LIKELY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS IT DOES SO... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WARM... AND COULD RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST BEFORE COLD ADVECTION TAKES OVER. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT IN THAT THEY BOTH NOW AT LEAST HAVE A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH MAKING SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES... HOWEVER THERE ARE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF SURFACE FEATURES. GFS IS NOW THE MODEL WHICH DEVELOPS A COLD TRAILING SURFACE LOW AND SNOW ACROSS PART OF THE NORTHEAST WHILE 24 HOURS AGO IT WAS THE ECMWF WHICH HAD THIS SORT OF SCENARIO. THINK THIS MAY BE A BIT FAR FETCHED FOR NOW AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW OUTSIDE OF ELEVATED AREAS. BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL MENTION THE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...BATCH OF RAIN IS HEADING EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS INTO THE WESTERN ZONES SHORTLY...BEGINNING A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS FOR THE NW FACING SLOPES. GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED FOR COAST AND COASTAL PLAIN...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN THE NEAR TERM...THRU 12Z...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS WHERE -RA HAS FALLEN EARLIER IN THE EVENING. GUSTY WNWLY WINDS WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY. LONG TERM... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS IN UPSLOPE FLOW MAY CONTINUE TO THE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE WATERS NEAR DAWN...WITH COLD ADVECTION MIXING 25 KT GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO LAST INTO MONDAY. LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...LEGRO SHORT TERM...LEGRO LONG TERM...KIMBLE AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO

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