Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 131046 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 646 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will retreat into the maritimes today. A cold front will approach from the west tonight before dropping south into northern New England on Saturday and stalling. The front will retreat north as a warm front early Sunday. Low pressure will track east through southern Canada on Sunday and drive a trailing cold front through the region Sunday night. High pressure follows for Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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640 AM...dropping the frost/freeze products attm. The damage is done at this point and temps will rise from here on in. A quick look at some overnight temps said we may have ended the growing season for many inland areas, but will wait for the COOPS to come in to make it official. For the most part, temps are pretty close to their bottom at this point, and should remain close to where they are until after sunrise and they begin to warm. Sfc high slowly begins to shift east today, which will allow weak onshore flow to develop. although given shallow inversion, winds should be light, with little mixing. Despite mainly clear skies, with just some cirrus moving in from SW, highs will be coolest today. Mostly 60 to 65, although a bit cooler in the mtns and along the immediate coast, but even these temps are the high side of normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Weak WAA advection begins to develop tonight, and will see cirrus lower and thicken. There could be a few light SHRA moving through the mtns, and maybe even sprinkle along the coast after midnight and into the first part of Saturday morning, mostly falling from 5-10k ft clouds Lows tonight will be warmer than this morning generally in the mid 40s to low 50s. There is a possibility of some low marine stratus moving onshore late this evening as well, so it will likely be mostly cloudy to cloudy everywhere into Saturday mid-morning. Although weak WAA aloft will remain through the day on Sat, there seems to be enough 500 mb and sfc ridging to allow for partly sunny skies, at least in the afternoon, across all but the mtns, which are likely to stay mostly cloudy with a chc of showers. Highs will be warmer than Friday, generally 60-65 in the mtns, and around 70 on the coastal plain. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The models are in decent agreement on the long wave pattern through the first half of next week. We begin the period with an upper ridge over the southeast CONUS and a sharp trough over the plains states with a resultant southwest flow across New England. The shortwave trough will slide quickly east into New England by Monday and be followed by yet another shortwave impulse for late Tuesday into Wednesday. In the wake of this second shortwave...rising heights and a broad upper ridge for the eastern third of the CONUS to round out the work week. With the mean jet position nearby or to our north for much of the period...temperatures will average above normal. In the dailies...a stalled front across northern New England Saturday night will retreat north as a warm front on Sunday as low pressure tracks from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. The trailing cold front with the system will cross the region sunday night with a ridge of high pressure to follow for monday into Tuesday. Another cold front will cross the area Tuesday night with high pressure to build to our south Wednesday through Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term...Valley fog will dissipate this morning and VFR will hold at terminals into this evening. Some coastal stratus is possible tonight, but it will likely hold off until later in the evening or after midnight. Should see a return to VFR Sat morning. Long Term... Sun...Sct MVFR in -shra/-tsra. Tue...Isold MVFR psb in Mtn -shra. && .MARINE... Short Term...SE winds today shift to SW tonight and at, but should remain below SCA, but could see some gusts to 20 kts or so. Long Term... Sun...Small craft conditions likely, with Gales possible outside the bays. Mon...Small craft conditions are possible outside the bays. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Cempa SHORT TERM...Cempa LONG TERM...Schwibs AVIATION... MARINE...

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