Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 202207 AAA AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 607 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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.UPDATE.. MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST FOR ONGOING TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT DISCREPANCIES. SEABREEZE WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED AND SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED AS A LAST GASP...BUT THESE SHOULD DROP OFF SHORTLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE RH VALUES CONTINUE TO MIX OUT TO CRITICAL LEVELS BUT THANKFULLY FUELS ARE MOIST AND WINDS ARE NOT THAT STRONG. THAT SAID SEVERAL BRUSH FIRES HAVE BEEN REPORTED.
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&& PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING. ASIDE FROM SOME THICKER CIRRUS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF MID DECK IN THE NORTH...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV TEMPS WAS USED TO DERIVE MINS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... NICE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER AND A SWLY BREEZE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH 70 IN THE INTERIOR...BUT REMAIN A GOOD BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW. CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY ON LONGWAVE PATTERN BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE. HENCE...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION...AND RESULTANT SENSIBLE WEATHER... DECLINES MARKEDLY AFTER DAY 5. A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. TUESDAY WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SHOWERS REACH WESTERN SECTIONS BY AFTERNOON...AND THE COAST TOWARDS DUSK. THE FRONT CLEARS THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS...ALONG WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWS DOWN AND CLOSES OFF NEARBY. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT THEN ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN UPPER LOW THEN ARRIVES WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM... TUE PM - WED AM...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WED...NW SFC WND GUSTING TO 25 KT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM... TUE PM - THU...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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TEMPERATURES APPROACH 70...DEW POINTS IN THE 20S...AND SSWLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE SPREAD ON MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH. ELSEWHERE...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HANES

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