Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 221655 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1155 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INTRODUCE SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY LATER TODAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL TRACK OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK HOLIDAY PERIOD...AND COULD BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 0900 AM ... MINOR UPDATE ADJUSTING CURRENT TEMPS. FORECAST FOR TODAY IS LOOKING GOOD. WILL BE TAKING A HARD LOOK AT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT AS THE NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN THIS MORNING. AT 07Z...A 1035 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS EVIDENT ON GOES IMAGERY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH THE RETURN FLOW INTRODUCING SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...IN DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS OR SLEET ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION PERSISTS TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND SPOTTY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION...NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. ON SUNDAY...WE BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS NORTHERN SECTIONS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...ALTHOUGH A 50 DEGREE READING OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION/SW WINDS APPROACH OVERNIGHT. A FEW VALLEYS AND FAVORED COLD LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE FREEZING MARK. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RAIN OVER THE INTERIOR OR HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS WARMER AIR IS USHERED IN AND THE NOW OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. RAIN WILL BE STEADY IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE TURNING INTO SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO NOTABLE COLD AIR ARRIVES IMMEDIATELY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND WINDS TURN WSW. VARIOUS MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS AND LATEST EURO ARE BRINGING THIS BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE WITHIN THE BENCHMARK NOW ON A VERY BUSY TRAVEL HOLIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BEGIN AS RAIN ON WEDNESDAY... ALL AREAS WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHICH WOULD SEE A MIX AT TIMES. FOR NOW UPPED POPS TO 50% ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND DUE TO MODEL AGREEMENT... BUT DID NOT GO LIKELY AT THIS TIME AS THIS IS STILL CONSIDERED DAY 6. DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A FLIP FLOPPING FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING IF THE MODELS TURN DRY AGAIN. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ARCTIC AIR WILL BE UNINHIBITED FROM REACHING THE NORTHEAST. 300MB TRAJECTORIES TRACK BACK TO A VERY COLD SOURCE AIRMASS. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...VFR...XCP SCT MVFR POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN SPOTTY -FZRA/IP/SN. LONG TERM...MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN OR SNOW ON MONDAY. MOUNTAIN TERMINALS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. ALL LOCATIONS MAY SEE RAIN AND OR SNOW WEDNESDAY WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS SEEING LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE AN OCEAN SYSTEM COMES INLAND. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING WIND GUSTS TO MARGINAL GALE LATER TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CASCO AND PENOBSCOT BAYS. LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER THAT. WAVES WILL BE 6-10 FT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153. GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CURTIS SHORT TERM...CURTIS LONG TERM...CEMPA AVIATION...CEMPA/CURTIS MARINE...CEMPA/CURTIS

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