Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 281935 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 335 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT GOOD SOAKING RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY ONCE AGAIN AFFECT NEW ENGLAND DURING THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN HAS EXITED THE REGION WITH ONLY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS WE EXPECT NO PROBLEMS ON THE RIVERS OR STREAMS. ALSO WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND SO THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALSO CANCELLED. WILL CONTINUE THE SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE HIGH SEAS. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT MODELS SHOW ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH VENTILATION OF DRIER AIR TO DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS AS A BROAD TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE REGION SO AREAS OF FOG AND SOME DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AND COASTAL AREAS. FOR POPS AND TEMPS USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A SURFACE/UPPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AS PER A MODEL BLEND SUGGESTS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MAIN STORM TRACK REMAINS OVERHEAD EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FURTHER AT THE SURFACE TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA AND IS PUSHED EAST BY AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS ENTIRE TIME FRAME (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT). THUNDERSTORMS LOOK MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS AFTER THE RECENT RAINFALL. MODELS ARE IN DISPUTE OVER THE PATTERN FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE MIDWEEK STORMS MOVES OUT... FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY (JULY 4) LOOKS RAIN-FREE *AT THIS TIME*. SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST HOWEVER AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE NEARS... AND CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY HAVE ALREADY REACHED NH AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES... DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S AREAWIDE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. SOME AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS. CONDITION BECOME VFR BY MID MORNING MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR TUESDAY EVENING AS RAIN BECOMES HEAVY. THESE CONDITIONS WORSEN TO IFR/LIFR AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OR MVFR POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...LOWERED THE GALE WARNING TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND OVER THE OUTER WATERS INTO MONDAY. A SCA FOR SEAS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS MONDAY. LONG TERM...NO CONCERNS ON THE WATERS AS WAVES AND WINDS STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. THERE MAY BE LOWER VISIBILITY ON THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND FOG. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023>028. NH...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ MARINE/HANES

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