Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 091414 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1014 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE...A QUICK UPDATE TO LWR POPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WILL UPDATE TEMPS WITH OBSERVATION. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION FIRE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION SOULD BEGIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE AS INDICATED BY THE HRRR AND PROGRESS TOWARD THE COAST. SPC WRF INDICATES CONVECTION LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG OR ISOLATED SVR STORM IN TH CWA. DEWPOINTS DROPPED A 3 TO 5 DEGREES OVERNIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TODAY. PREVIOUS DISC...LINGERING SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TO MID MORNING. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO REMAIN DRY AS DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT. MAY SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT TO KICK OFF A LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY AND SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... SECONDARY FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. THURSDAY LOOKING VERY NICE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY. ASIDE FROM A FEW MOUNTAIN CLOUDS...SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NGT THRU FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE AND WEAK SFC LOW MOVE OUT TO OUR S...TOO FAR S TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA. THE HIGH STAYS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NGT AND SATURDAY THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NGT. EXPECT FAIR WX WITH THIS HIGH THURSDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY NGT. THE TREND WILL BE TO START OUT WITH PLEASANT SUMMER TEMPS WITH LOW HUMIDITY UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND A RETURN FLOW OF SW WINDS BRINGS INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WHICH WILL START ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING RISK OF SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WELL. THE VERY WARM AND HUMID WX LASTS THRU TUESDAY. AN UPPER LVL TROF MOVES THRU MONDAY AND MONDAY EVE WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY. ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MOVES IN FROM THE W TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVE AS IT PINWHEELS AROUND AN UPPER LVL CLOSED LOW LOCATED IN CANADA N OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM AGAIN WILL HELP FOCUS SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY NGT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY INCREASING THE CHC OF SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S FOR SEAS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WINDS AND SEAS WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NGT THRU SATURDAY NGT. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THE S SW FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED BY A SEA BREEZE CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE AND SEAS TO BUILD ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT INCREASE ENOUGH TO CREATE SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...

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