Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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499 FXUS61 KGYX 050139 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 939 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO NEW ENGLAND...ALONG WITH COOL...ONSHORE WINDS. ONE PERIOD COMES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 930 PM UPDATE: WIDESPREAD NOW ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS OF ME/NH. STICKING WITH HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS OVER SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL MAINE AND SOUTHERN NH UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASED QPF TOTALS SOME ALONG COASTAL AND ADJACENT INLAND AREAS. TEMPS NOT MOVING MUCH AS FORECAST BUT A FEW MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED BASED ON OBS. 450PM UPDATE: UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE HIGH POPS ACROSS NH AND WESTERN ME THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING. FURTHER E ACROSS THE MIDCOAST ONLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME AND LEFT VERY LOW POPS. INCREASED POPS FOR THE EARLY EVENING AS WELL AS TRAJECTORIES AND MODELS ALL POINT TO AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE. RADAR AND WATER VAPOR SUPPORTS THIS SHORT TERM TREND. MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG TONIGHT AS IT GRADUALLY UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS AND MOVES NORTHEAST...WELL OFF THE COASTLINE. THE PTYPE WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...BUT SLEET OR SNOW PELLETS MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES OVER MOUNT WASHINGTON. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... PERIODS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. THE EURO APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT CROSSES THE BENCHMARK THURSDAY EVENING. DUE TO THIS DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR ALONG THE COAST...IN PARTICULAR THE MIDCOAST REGION WHERE OVER AN INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIP MAY TAPER TO SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO WINDS BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER CHILLY...WITH 40S TO LOWER 50S MAINLY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT MEAN TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN DURING THE PERIOD WITH A SOME RAINY/SHOWERY PERIODS. IN THE DAILIES...ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS COOL AND CLOUDY ON FRIDAY. IT WON/T BE A WASHOUT BUT SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME. THE SAME GOES FOR SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO TRAVERSE THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WE MAY GET A BREAK FROM THE REAL CRUDDY WEATHER ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SHOT OF A DRY DAY THEN. THEREAFTER...FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A LOT OF MODEL SPREAD EXISTS WHERE A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT SETS UP. IF IT SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...RAINY WEATHER WILL RETURN. HOPEFULLY IT SETS UP SOUTH OF THERE AND ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF NICE DAYS TUE AND WED. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR WITH LOCALLY LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOP. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH A VERY SLOW AND SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. LONG TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE NEARBY ALLOWS FOR LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS IN RAIN/SHOWERS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BUILDING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE SCAS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL PROBABLY HOLD AT LOW-END SCA CRITERIA DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. && .FIRE WEATHER... DAYS OF CLOUDY SKIES WITH WETTING RAINS ON AND OFF THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER LOW. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. COORDINATED WITH WFO BOX AND PLAN TO HANDLE ANY POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES WITH ADVISORIES ON THURSDAY...IF NEEDED...IN AREAS FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS SOUTH. THEREFORE NO WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED THIS PACKAGE. NART BASED WAVE RUNUP MATRICES CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME EROSION BEGINNING THE THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE ALONG COASTAL YORK COUNTY. HOWEVER...NEARSHORE WAVES WILL BE AROUND 5-6 FEET. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE EURO IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ151- 153. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152- 154. && $$

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