Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 141616 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1216 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will pass along the international border, while weak low pressure moves across southern New England today. A warm front crosses the region tonight allowing a warm and humid southwest flow to develop over the area. Low pressure will track east through southern Canada on Sunday and drive a trailing cold front through the region Sunday night. Canadian high pressure with cooler and dry weather follows for Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1215 pm Update: Large area of clear skies over the southern half of NH/southwest ME continues allowing more heating and thus warmer temps, so increase max temps 3-5 degs across those areas. 945 am Update: Visible satellite imagery showing a large area of clear skies developing over the southern half of NH into southwest Maine due to strong subsidence, so made adjustments to sky grids for more sun across those areas. Otherwise no changes to previous forecast. 630 AM...Forecast in pretty good shape this AM. The trend to keep the precip from srn system to our south continues in the hourly meso models, and very little upstream precip associated with the front to our north at this point, and do not see much that force anything more than brief shower or sprinkle there today. Previously...Two weak waves moving thru near zonal flow aloft will bring clouds to the region today, especially this morning. One system moving just N of the CWA early this morning will push a weakening cold front to around the intl border today, and that could set off a few SHRA in the mtns today, and will keep conds mostly cloudy thru most of the day. Another weak wave will track across srn New England, and that could bring a few sprinkles to seacoast NH this morning. Should some sunny breaks outside of the mountains this afternoon, except maybe along the mid-coast which could stay mostly cloudy. Temps should generally be in the 60s, coolest in the ME mtns, and warmest in srn NH and interior SW ME. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Overnight, will likely see some stratus develop as warmer, moister air rides over the cool sfc air, as inversion develops. So while the WAA will begin as sfc low intensifies over the Great Lakes, it will not make much headway to the sfc overnight. Still with clouds moving in again, and fog developing as well, mins will be limited mostly to the mid to upper 50s. Could see a few showers in the north, especially along the intl border after midnight, as forcing and warm front come together. On Sunday, the sfc low tracking ENE across Ontario and into Quebec, will continue to intensify, and this should produce an increasing pres SW pres gradient. It will likely take at least part of the morning, if not most of it for the flow to become strong enough to mix out the sfc inversion, so clouds will linger. Could also see a few SHRA in the NE zones during the morning as well. By afternoon, SW winds should pick up to 10-20 mph and will see partly sunny skies in many spots. The clouds will break from SW-NE, so the sun will come sooner in the west and later in the east. MAx T forecast offers some challenges as it will depend on how quickly the warm sector mixes down to the sfc, but model consensus is for warmest in srn NH and SW ME, as well as CT vly, where they will max out at 70-75. Cooler central and mid-coast ME, but still above normal, with highs mid to upper 60s. It will also be noticeably humid by Sunday afternoon as Tds rise into the low to mid 60s. Latest models showing some agreement that cold front will only begin to move into NW zones late in the day, so any SHRA associated with the front should generally hold off until around or after sunset. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The models are now in decent agreement on the long wave pattern through late next weekend. We begin the period with a broad trough centered upstream over the Great Lakes. The lead shortwave and an associated surface low will drive a trailing cold front across New England Sunday night accompanied by a band of showers. A second shortwave will cross the area Monday along with a weak surface reflection producing a few clouds and scattered showers mainly across the higher terrain. A ridge of high pressure follows this front briefly Monday night and early Tuesday. Another shortwave impulse crosses eastern Canada and northern New England late Tuesday and Tuesday night with an associated cold front bringing a few clouds and scattered showers mainly to mountain sections. Ridging and a low amplitude flow will bring fair weather and a warming trend for the second half of the new work week and into the upcoming weekend. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term...VFR conditions today except some MVFR conditions along the coastal midcoast areas. MVFR- IFR stratus moving in late this evening and lingering into Sunday morning. Should see improvement to VFR Sunday afternoon, although will see SW winds increase with some gusts to 20-25 kt possible. Long Term... Sun Night...Areas of MVFR in -shra. Tue...Isold MVFR psb in Mtn -shra. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA levels into Sunday morning. SCAs may be needed by Sunday afternoon as SW winds increase, and seas respond. Long Term... Mon...Small craft conditions are possible outside the bays. Wed...Small craft conditions are possible outside the bays. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR/SHORT TERM...Marine SHORT TERM...Ekster

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