Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 182258 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 658 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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645 PM UPDATE: DROPPED POPS TO NEAR NIL OVER SRN AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AS THE FIRST TROF HAS MOVED THROUGH WITH ALL THE SHWRS NOW MOVING INTO ERN MAINE. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE KICKING IN SO DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THE REST OF THE EVENING. SOME LINGERING SHWRS IN THE MTNS STILL PSBL SO CHC POPS THERE. TOWARD MORNING A SECONDARY S/WV AND THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SCT SHWRS PSBL. TEMPS WILL BE GETTING COLD ALOFT TOWARD MORNING SO SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE ANY RAIN SHWRS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA. PREV DISC: COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT KICKING OFF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO GET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. VORT MAX ROUNDING THE THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER WEAKER LOBE OF ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... BULK OF SUNDAY WILL WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...DIMINISHING TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AS TEMPS DIP TO NEAR FREEZING DOWN TO THE COAST. COLDEST AIR WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE READINGS WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR SOUTH. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY...AS THE NEXT IMPULSE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CARVES OUT AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS LOW THEN MEANDERS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE BEING KICKED OUT INTO THE MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SLOW- MOVING COASTAL LOW. WHILE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW THIS PORTION OF THE MONTH...THE PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS WILL NOT PRECLUDE SPLASHOVER AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR. VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM... TUE NIGHT - THU...MVFR IN RAIN...WITH AREAS OF IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. WED...NE SFC WND GUSTS TO 30 KT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM... MON - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE. WED - THU...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$

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