Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 201313 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 914 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY...WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY...PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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910 AM...A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. A VERY NICE DAY CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND WARMING TEMPS. 630 AM...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO T/TD/SKY EARLY THIS MORNING...BASED ON CURRENT OBS...BUT NOTHING THAT CHANGES THE BASIC FORECAST OF A MAINLY SUNNY DAY. PREVIOUSLY...SFC HIGH CRESTS OVER THE CWA TODAY...AND LOOK FOR A GENERALLY SUNNY DAY...OTHER THAN A FEW PATCHES OF THIN CIRRUS. WILL SEE SEA BREEZE DEVELOP...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED A LITTLE BY WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AS THE HIGH SHIFTS S...THIS WILL KEEP THE COAST COOLER...WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50...WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... WILL SEE CIRRUS THICKEN A BIT OVERNIGHT AS WAA ALOFT MOVES THROUGH. MINS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES THAN THIS MORNING. THE CIRRUS WILL LKLY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE P-M SUNNY. FLOW SHIFTS TO SW...AND TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S INLAND. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLER...BUT CASCO BAY AND POINTS SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS CLOSE TO 60...WHILE THE MID-COAST WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WARM FNT LIFTING THRU THE AREA AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE CLOUDS THRU TUE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF MAY BE THE FOCUS ON SOME SHRA ACROSS THE MTNS...BUT EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY FIRST HALF OF THE DAY OTHERWISE. AS LOW PRES/OCCLUSION APPROACHES SHRA WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS FOR THE REST OF THE CWFA. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FEATURE...WITH UPPER TROF AXIS CROSSING THE REGION BY MIDDAY WED. DRY NWLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUT MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WED. HOWEVER CAA WILL SUPPORT THAT NWLY FLOW BECOMING GUSTY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. BEST WINDOWS FOR WIND GUSTS WILL BE WITH UPPER TROF PASSAGE...AND AGAIN THU WITH SECONDARY COLD FNT. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS APPROACH 30-35 MPH IN THESE WINDOWS. THE REGION WILL THEN BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES...WITH RIDGING ALOFT PROVIDING FOR SOME DRY WX. THE RESULTING LOW RH VALUES COUPLED WITH THE BREEZY CONDITIONS THU COULD LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. WINDS RELAX FRI AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES IN...WHICH SHOULD ALLEVIATE CONCERNS. AS RIDGING MOVES EWD...NEXT TROF APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND WITH PCPN CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. LONG TERM...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED IN SHRA. VFR RETURNS WED AFTERNOON...OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WITH GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPING THRU FRI. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM....SCA IS BEING CANCELLED AS WINDS SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS INTO MONDAY MORNING...EXCEPT FOR ONSHORE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. SW FLOW FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE MON AFTERNOON. LONG TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUE AS SLY FLOW BUILDS SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT. WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FNT/LOW PRES STRONGER NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE WATERS. GUST MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE FOR A TIME THU. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

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