Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 250710 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 210 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... AT 07Z...A 979 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR TO THE WEST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THEN ONSHORE ACROSS MIDCOAST AND DOWNEAST MAINE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD JUMP TOWARDS DAWN AS THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE`S ONE MORE BAND OF SHOWERS TO CROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT THIS MORNING BEFORE WE BREAKOUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE SNOW MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ONE LAST SLUG OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT COULD PUSH SOME OF THE RIVERS AND STREAM TO NEAR BANKFULL LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT...SO NO CHANGE PLANNED FOR THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. IT`LL BE HARD TO BELIEVE IT`S CHRISTMAS TODAY AS TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND WE BREAKOUT INTO SOME SUNSHINE. OVERALL...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A GOOD TWENTY DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...BUST STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/... WINDS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH LINGERING UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR SOUTH. A FEW MOUNTAIN CLOUDS FRIDAY...OTHERWISE A MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...OR A GOOD TEN DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. IT REMAINS MILD ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND. MODELS ARE HAVING A CHALLENGING TIME DECIPHERING POSSIBLE SNOW EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW...MOST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...BUT STILL KEEPING ANY PRECIP CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY AS A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. SW SFC WIND WILL GUST UP TO 40 KT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. SCT MVFR TONIGHT IN MTN SNOW SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDS EXPECTED. LONG TERM... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY WITH THE COLD FRONT SUN. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO GALE THIS MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. LONG TERM... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD BY THE WEEKEND AND WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE ONLY CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS BEING SUNDAY WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT AS WINDS SWITCH FROM THE SW TO THE W. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVERS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH THE SWIFT RIVER FORECAST TO CREST THIS MORNING NEAR FLOOD STAGE. ALSO...THE KENNEBEC RIVER AT AUGUSTA IS EXPECTING RISES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ONGOING RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDES WILL BE RUNNING CLOSE TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING AND RECEDING TODAY. WITH THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND SOME WAVE ACTION WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT...WILL BE ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE 1 PM HIGH TIDE FOR MINOR IMPACT. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE TIED OR SET AT PORTLAND AND CONCORD TODAY. THE HIGHEST CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPERATURES ON RECORD ARE 56 FOR CONCORD IN 1889...AND 53 AT PORTLAND IN 1994. ALSO...RECORD HIGHS FOR MOUNT WASHINGTON ARE 38 FOR THE 24TH AND 42 FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. BOTH WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014- 018>022. NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NHZ001>013-015. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ153. GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>152-154. && $$ SCHWIBS/CANNON

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