Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 011307 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 907 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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---905AM UPDATE--- QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO BETTER CAPTURE THE RAIN MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. 600 AM...I ADJUSTED TIMING ON POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS..AND INGESTED THE LATEST MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE. PREV DISC... AT 06Z...A 1006 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE WILL MAKE IT INTO THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION TODAY. MODELS SUGGEST AN AVERAGE OF 1000 J/KG FOR CAPE IN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW STORMS TO APPROACH SEVERE CRITERIA WITH STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH HAIL. HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING CONVECTION QUICKLY TO AN END AS IT SWEEPS OFFSHORE. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. OUTSIDE OF A FEW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. AN OFFSHORE BREEZE SHOULD ALLOW EVEN THE COAST TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S...WITH A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR NEW HAMPSHIRE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... BROADLY SPEAKING WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOVE THE SURFACE... A BROADER TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS IS BRIEFLY REPLACED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH ARRIVES BY MID NEXT WEEK. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR US PREFERRING TO LIVE AT GROUND LEVEL IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND? GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IMPULSES PASSING THROUGH THE BROADER TROUGH WILL LARGELY GO UNNOTICED. A MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SURFACE FEATURES REMAIN QUITE WEAK AND PRECIPITATION THREAT SEEMS MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WARM UP A BIT BENEATH THE RIDGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT THIS WARM UP WILL BE TEMPERED BY AN ONSHORE WIND OVER MUCH OF MAINE. 70S AND LOW 80S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MID NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRI/... CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING IN A MIX OF RAIN AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFT 04Z BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED MVFR IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH LOCAL IFR IN VALLEY FOG. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGHOUT AFTER 13Z THURSDAY. LONG TERM... HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NIGHTTIME FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM... NO FLAGS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH WINDS AND SEAS COULD COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA LATE TODAY. LONG TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ POHL

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