Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 262036 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 336 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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OVERNIGHT LOTS OF HIGH...THIN OVERCAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE COLD FRONT SAGGING SWD TOWARDS THE AREA...THE OVERCAST OR PARTIAL OVERCAST WILL LIMIT COOLING SOMEWHAT. BEST CHANCE TO CLEAR OUT WILL BE THE NRN VALLEYS...WHERE SFC RIDGING WILL TRY TO NOSE IN FIRST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BRANCH INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP WX ON THE QUIET SIDE. CONTINUED CLEARING...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE. RIDGE AXIS WILL TRY AND ALIGN OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT...AND COULD ALLOW FOR SOME VERY COLD TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. AIR MASS IS MODERATING A LITTLE ALOFT...BUT IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE COLDER MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE. FAVORED THOSE PIECES OF GUIDANCE MORE FOR MIN TEMPS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ON SATURDAY A VERY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SUNDAY INTO MOMDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON A TRIPLE POINT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. AT THIS POINT THIS APPEARS TO BE A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM SO NO MAJOR SNOW AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES. A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WANT TO TAKE THIS SYSTEM WEST OF THE AREA ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO TRY TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION TYPE CHALLENGES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. AS THIS IS STILL ALMOST A WEEK AWAY IN WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISING IF MODELS TREND COLDER AS WE GET CLOSER AND THAT WILL BE SOMETHING THAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...VFR TO PREVAIL THRU FRI NIGHT. LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...COLD TEMPS AND LINGERING BREEZE WILL KEEP MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN THE FORECAST THRU THE OVERNIGHT. ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED. FOR SEAS...NOTED THE SWAN MODEL GUIDANCE WAS RUNNING TOO HIGH TODAY. OPTED FOR THE WNA4 AND ITS COARSER RESOLUTION AS A RESULT. LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS...ALTHOUGH WINDS COULD ROACH SCA LEVELS LATE MONDAY.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...LEGRO SHORT TERM...LEGRO LONG TERM...LULOFS AVIATION...LEGRO/LULOFS MARINE...LEGRO/LULOFS

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