Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Portland, ME
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 141112
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
712 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Warm and dry conditions for today. A wave of low pressure moves
across New England tonight and Friday, bringing mostly rain
with mountain snow. Drier weather briefly returns for Saturday
before another system moves into the region for Sunday.
Temperatures look to progressively cool off starting next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
710 AM...The overnight showers have left a few foggy patches,
but even these are starting to burn off as may areas are just
showing SCT-BKN cirrus above this and allowing the rising sun
to do it`s work on this Pi day. Otherwise forecast in good
shape.
Previously...Weakening 500 MB wave in zonal flow along with
some mid level convergence near baroclinic zone is setting off
some showers now moving across west and central ME. Models not
doing a great job with this but through it is the showers weaken
as the flow aloft picks up a bit and the showers weaken before
daybreak as they shift E. The rest of the day should see
clearing in the S this morning, and probably in the mtns too,
but that may take longer. Light flow eventually picks up a bit
but from SW, especially further W, but near the coast will sea
breeze effects this afternoon keep the maxes down. So highs
range from 45-50 in the N, to 50-55 along the coast and in
interior central ME, and as highs as around 60 in interior S NH.
Cirrus will start to move in from the W late this afternoon.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Weak wave in the 500 MB near zonal flow approaches from the W
tomorrow evening, with reflected sfc low. 500 MB dynamics not
so great, but good upper jet dynamics as 130+ kt jet moves in
with the system, and helps improve the UVV. So best rain will
likely be in the 06-16Z time frame, which could be more
moderate, even briefly heavy at times, but overall QPF still
looks to be around a half inch or less in this time period, so,
it shouldn`t cause any flood issues. The rain will taper off to
showers Fri afternoon. 850 temps will be marginal for snow in
the N, especially for the valleys, but could see a little at
onset and toward the end, but above 2500 feet will likely see a
couple inches of accums. Low tonight range from the low to mid
30s in the mtns to the upper 30s in the S. NE flow develops
Friday, which combined with the clouds and precip will keep
maxes in the low to mid 40s across much of the area. The warmest
spot will be in the CT valley where there will be downslope and
the precip will end earlier, and highs could be near 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upslope flow will keep a chance of snow showers in the
mountains Friday night, and the rest of region may see a few
rain showers develop as a 500mb shortwave crosses through
overnight into very early Saturday morning. Winds will also be
light and given the rain expected Thursday night and Friday,
wouldn`t be surprised to see patchy fog.
Mostly dry conditions continue outside of the mountains on
Saturday as weak high pressure settles in. High temperatures
will reach the upper 40s to lower 50s with some mid 50s also
possible in southern NH.
The next system and chance for precipitation arrives Saturday
night and into Sunday as a shortwave trough out ahead of an
upper low across southern Quebec sends a cold front across New
England on Sunday. The track of the surface low near or just
north of the International Border is expected to keep this a
mostly rain event, except for snow in the mountains. Moisture
does not look overly impressive with this system and given its
progressive nature, QPF is expected to be on the order 0.25" to
0.50" areawide.
The upper low will move slowly east early next week while the
surface low moves into and deepens over the Canadian Maritimes.
A couple of subtle waves associated with the upper low may bring
a few rain or snow showers to the area on Monday with the
better chances in the mountains. After that, precip chances look
mainly confined to the mountains with low-level flow switching
to northwesterly, promoting upslope rain and snow showers into
Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. Temperatures look somewhat
cooler next week but still close to normal with highs in the
40s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...VFR through today and into the evening, but rain
and cigs will bring conds to IFR for a period late tonight
through much of Fri morning at least, and those areas that do
improve Fri afternoon mainly interior NH terminals, will likely
still not improve beyond MVFR.
Long Term...Even though conditions are expected to improve
Friday night, some restrictions remain possible, mainly owing to
MVFR to IFR ceilings, but there may be patchy fog at times as
well. Mainly VFR on Saturday, except MVFR ceilings may persist
at HIE. Another low pressure is expected to bring another round
of mostly rain Saturday night into Sunday with MVFR to IFR
ceilings possible. Mostly VFR on Monday with a chance of rain or
snow showers, mainly toward HIE, where there could also be MVFR
ceilings.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds pick up from the NE late tonight into Friday,
but should still still stay below SCA conditions, with gusts
limited to 20 kts outside the bays.
Long Term...Weak high pressure brings tranquil conditions
Friday night through Saturday before southerly wind gusts
potentially increase to SCA levels ahead of a cold front
Saturday night and into Sunday. West winds may also reach SCA
thresholds behind the front later on Sunday into Sunday night.
Low pressure generally to the north and northeast of the waters
maintains W/SW winds Monday and Tuesday of next week before
becoming more W/NW by Wednesday.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Cempa
SHORT TERM...Cempa
LONG TERM...Combs
AVIATION...
MARINE...