Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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599 FXUS61 KGYX 210326 AAB AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 1126 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Jose will remain nearly stationary south of Cape Cod tonight and Thursday, and could produce some gusty winds at times along the coast into Thursday. Otherwise high pressure will be the main feature and build south into the region into early next week, with temperatures running well above normal through the period, and mainly clear skies Thursday through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Update...Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends. Previous discussion...Tropical system Jose will become quasi- stationary south of Cape Cod tonight. This means continued gusty winds from the north can be expected at times along the coast tonight. Meanwhile, high pressure with a drier air mass will slowly work south tonight. Clearing has already taken place across the northern half of NH and the western mountains of Maine. Southern areas will continue the low clouds and stratus through the night but no fog expected due to the mixing. Some valley fog may develop over the CT River Valley late tonight. Overnight low temps should remain mild ranging from the mid 50s in the mountains to mid 60s over southern areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Jose will remain quasi-stationary south of Cape Cod Thu and Thu night. Meanwhile a large ridge of high pressure will slowly build south across northern New England, the combination of Jose to the south and high pressure to the north will produce some gusty winds at times along the coast again Thu. The ridge of high pressure will allow strong subsidence aloft to allow skies to become mostly sunny Thu and clear skies Thu night. Also have extended the Heavy surf advisory along the coast through Thursday night as the long period swells from the southeast continue. Temps will reach well into the 70s Thu with overnight lows dipping into the mid 40s mountains to mid 50s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Jose will likely remain nearly stationary south of Nantucket through much of the forecast period while weakening. At the same time, deep layer ridging will move in from the west. This will allow for dry weather Friday (except for a slight chance of showers on the Seacoast Friday) through at least Monday with well above normal temperatures. In fact, highs may approach records at Concord NH Sunday and Monday. While not explicitly forecasting records at this time, highs reaching 90 would do it. For now, will keep mid-upper 80s going due to limited mixing. After Monday, the remnants of Jose could come back north while getting absorbed into a southward-moving cold front across our area. If that occurs, showery weather would be likely but this seems like a low prob at this time. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term...VFR conditions over the northern half of NH and the western mountains of Maine tonight will spread to southern areas by Thursday morning...meanwhile MVFR to IFR conditions are expected over southern and coastal areas tonight. All areas will be VFR Thu and Thu night. Long Term...Late night/morning valley fog will likely restrict cigs/vsbys Friday night through early next week. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions are expected. && .MARINE... Short Term...Tropical system Jose will remain nearly stationary through Thursday night so will continue the SCA through Thursday night due to the combination of gusty north winds at times and continue long period swells of 3-5 ft in the bays and 7-11 ft over the outer waters. Long Term...SCA conditions are likely Friday through the weekend, mainly for seas, as Jose continues to meander south of Nantucket. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Long period swells will continue through Thursday night. High tide at Portland is 10.6 ft shortly after midnight, and conditions may be a little worse tonight given slightly greater swell and a higher high tide. This may possibly lead to to minor splash-over and some beach erosion. On Thursday and Thursday night continued minor beach erosion is expected. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for MEZ023>028. NH...High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for NHZ014. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ150>154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Legro

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