Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 221036 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 636 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front brought welcome rains to the region overnight and early Monday morning. Behind the exiting cold front, a gusty northwest wind will usher noticeably cooler and drier air into the area today. Dry weather and moderating temperatures are expected for the middle of the week. A weakening cold front will bring another chance for some showers and thunderstorms by the end of the week. High pressure then looks to build in for this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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635 AM...for this ESTF update I adjusted near term grids to reflect current radar trends and to ingest the latest mesonet. Prev disc... At 06z...a cold front extended from Quebec province southward through western New Hampshire to a 1008 millibar low over western Massachusetts. A 1021 millibar high was centered over Missouri. NWS doppler radar mosaic showed a band of showers...with embedded thunder over southern New England...along and ahead of the cold front. For today...showers will end from west to east this morning following the cold frontal passage with any lingering showers exiting are far eastern Maine zones vicinity of Penobscot Bay by mid morning. A gusty Northwest flow will develop behind the cold front with downslope bringing sunny skies to much of the forecast area. The exception should be the mountains where upslope and the upper trough should allow a few clouds to linger into early afternoon. Highs today will range from the 60s in the mountains to the 70s elsewhere. a few 80 degree readings are possible over extreme southeast New Hampshire.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... Winds will become light this evening as high pressure settles over the area. The dry airmass and clear skies will provide the coolest night we`ve seen in some time with lows ranging from the mid 40s in the mountains to the upper 40s and lower 50s elsewhere. Expect we`ll see some late night valley stratus and fog across the interior as well. On Tuesday...the surface high builds to our south with warm air advection providing a few clouds to northern Maine zones by afternoon.`ll be a sunny day with highs in the 70s...with a few 80 degree readings over southeast New Hampshire. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Not much change to the forecast from previous thinking as models have not strayed much from earlier runs. The bottom line is mainly dry weather throughout the extended, with really the only chance of rain being centered around Friday with a cold front. In the dailies...high pressure will settle over southern New England Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will allow for mostly clear/sunny skies with radiational cooling a good bet Tuesday night. Return flow on Wednesday will allow for warmer temperatures and increasing dewpoint values. A few locations across southern NH may touch 90 on Wednesday. More of the same on Thursday, with southerly return flow continuing which should aid in slightly higher dewpoint values...possibly in the mid 60s. A few members of the model suite indicate the potential for a weak short wave trough to skim our northern zones Thursday afternoon. The weak forcing for ascent may be just enough to trigger a shower or thunderstorm across the far north Thursday afternoon or early evening. A stronger short wave trough, although weakening and increasingly moisture-starved, will pass across the region on Friday and will drive a cold front across the region. This will represent the best chance of rain for the region in the form of scattered thunderstorms. However, not all towns are expected to get beneficial rains at this time. High pressure then looks to build across the region for the weekend which should bring fair weather as well as lower humidity and temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term /through Tuesday/...MVFR with lcl IFR through dawn in shra and fog...then improving to VFR throughout from west to east during the morning following a cold frontal passage. Developing northwest winds will gust up to 25 kt through early evening before diminishing. Lcl IFR developing between 07z and 12z Tuesday in valley stratus and fog...otw VFR conditions expected. Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions are expected Tuesday night through Friday. However, valley fog is expected Tuesday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Friday with cold frontal passage and may allow for local restrictions then. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Tuesday/...seas may briefly approach 5 ft this morning outside the bays as a cold front traverses the water along with a few wind gusts to near 25 kt. Otherwise...rather quiet on the waters as high pressure builds east into the area this afternoon through the remainder of the forecast period. Long Term...Small craft conditions will be possible, mainly on the ocean waters Thursday into Thursday night as s/sw winds increase in advance of a cold front. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ ES is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.