Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 132319 AAA AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 719 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over the area will move offshore tonight. A cold front will approach from the west later tonight before dropping south into northern New England on Saturday and stalling. The front will retreat north as a warm front early Sunday allowing a warm and humid southwest flow to develop over the area. Low pressure will track east through southern Canada on Sunday and drive a trailing cold front through the region Sunday night. Canadian high pressure with cooler and dry weather follows for Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Update...No major changes to the forecast. Mainly adjusted temps and sky cover based on latest trends. We should see a gradual increase in clouds from the SW. Front pushing in from the NW will bring scattered showers nearby...but I think they will stay N of the border for the most part or generally stay N of the notches thru morning. Previous discussion...Surface high pressure centered over the region will move east tonight allowing a light south to southwest flow to develop. Some low clouds and stratus may develop later tonight within this flow. Temps will be not as cold tonight due to developing clouds and the light southerly flow that develops. Used a blend of models which puts overnight lows in the mid 40s in the mountains and lower 50s along the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Saturday - a weak front over southern Canada drifts south into northern and central Maine bringing with it clouds and scattered showers in the mountains. Meanwhile, over extreme southeast NH and southwest ME the chance of some light showers exist due to a weak low level surface wave of low pressure passing across southern New England. Those extreme southern areas of the forecast area will be on the northern fringe of the system. High temps will be near seasonal levels in the 60s. By late Saturday and Saturday night the frontal system over northern areas will move back to the north as a warm front as the flow aloft becomes more southwest and strengthens. Also any showers over extreme southern areas comes to an end as the weak surface wave passing to the south moves east out to sea. Models are in good agreement on these scenarios. By Sat night dewpoints will be on the rise passing over the cooler ocean waters and will develop areas of fog over some southwest coastal areas but especially along the mid coast. Further inland not expecting much if any fog due to a more southwest flow. Temps will be mild Sat night with lows in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A warm front will move northward through the CWA on Sunday. There may be some morning low clouds, fog, and perhaps some patchy light drizzle. However, as the warm sector takes hold by later in the morning, the sun should come out, at least partially. Temps will warm into the 70s except eastern and some central zones. There will also be an increasing southwesterly LLJ during the day, with some mixing allowing for 25-30 MPH gusts in spots by afternoon. Not out of the question that a few places gust up to 40 mph for a short time if mixing is deeper than forecast. By late afternoon, showers associated with a cold front should reach the CT river valley. The cold front will sweep across the CWA during the evening hours Sunday with a band of showers, heaviest in the west. At this time, it looks like instability will be too weak for thunder, but will watch trends. However, with low level jet of about 50 kt between 2 and 3 kft, convective showers may bring down some locally strong wind gusts if the low levels don`t decouple too much (which they shouldn`t). Much cooler and drier air moves in for Monday and Tuesday with high pressure. However, after that, high return flow around southeast ridging should allow us to warm up to well above normal levels again with dry weather Wed-Fri (and perhaps through next weekend). && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term...VFR this evening. Some coastal stratus is possible later tonight. MVFR Conditions expected Sat as stratus develops/spreads from s-n on the developing warm moist s-sw flow. By Sat night IFR conditions develop in low stratus along the coast and mostly MVFR inland as moist marine layer thickens and tries to push inland. Long Term...IFR conditions possible in fog and low stratus Sunday morning (mainly coast) before lifting to VFR mid to late morning (except perhaps mid coast). Gusty SW winds perhaps up to G30 kt Sunday afternoon in advance of cold front. MVFR conditions to local IFR possible Sunday evening in showers with cold front. VFR returns later Sunday night and looks to last through Wednesday. && .MARINE... Short Term...A light south to southwest flow expected tonight through Saturday night. Conditions to remain below SCA criteria. Long Term...Southwesterly winds increase Sunday ahead of cold front and likely peak over the waters Sunday evening where a few gusts around 35 KT will be possible along with building seas. Winds shift NW in wake of cold front Sunday night with diminishing gusts by later Monday afternoon. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Legro

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