Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 132251 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 651 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Isolated showers are possible tonight followed by warm and mostly dry conditions Thursday. A wave of low pressure moves across New England Thursday night and Friday, bringing mostly rain with mountain snow. Drier weather briefly returns for Saturday before another system moves into the region for Sunday. Temperatures look to progressively cool off starting next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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650 PM Update...Just a few isold sprinkles/showers out there right now owing to weak WAA in advance of a weak warm front. Really not changes to the going forecast at this time for this evening. Previously... A weak wave moving across SE Quebec will spread clouds over the area from west to east this evening. There continues to be weak returns on radar across Vermont moving into NH while surface observations suggest this precipitation is not reaching the ground thanks to low to mid level dry air. BUFKIT soundings suggest the atmosphere will moisten tonight that will allow for isolated rain showers and scattered snow showers in the mountains with little if any accumulation. Ample cloud cover and modest warm air advection will lead to low temperatures tonight in the low to mid 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Cloud cover will thin from SW to NE Thursday morning leading to mostly sunny skies across southern NH and SW Maine with partly cloudy skies across northern and eastern zones. Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 50s south of the White Mountains and across interior SW Maine. Onshore winds will keep coastal areas in the upper 40s with low 50s across central Maine. Across the mountain and far north highs will be in the mid 40s. A wave of low pressure approaching from the west will bring increasing clouds from west to east late Thursday into Thursday night. This low will pass along the NH/MA border late Thursday night spreading precipitation into the area after midnight. Temperatures are likely to remain above freezing south of the mountains with mainly rain expected. In the mountains thermal profiles will be marginal for snow with precipitation possibly starting as rain. Model soundings do suggest that there will be some low level dry air that will allow for wet bulbing to cool the atmospheric column to support a quick change to snow in the mountains. The 12Z HREF members are in decent agreement that a band of moderate snow will develop in the mountains during the pre dawn hours that could lead to slick travel in mountain towns, especially along roads at elevation. South of the mountains travel impacts will be limited to moderate rainfall into the morning commute. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ----------------------------------------------------------------- Summary: *Rain and snow likely Friday. Up to a few inches of snow possible in the mountains, with mostly rain likely south of the mountains. *More widespread rain and snow showers move through the region Sunday. *Northwest flow prevails early next week, with cooler than average temperatures expected, cloudy and showery north of the mountains with clear and dry weather expected along southern/coastal NH/ME. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Discussion: Friday will start with a low pressure system moving across New England. The low looks to bring mostly rain outside of the mountains and snow in the higher elevations. At this time, thermal profiles suggest snowfall accumulation will be confined to the mountains while some model solutions suggest there could be a rain mixing with snow from the Lakes Region of NH through the Capital District of Maine. Ensembles suggest between a quarter to a half inch of liquid equivalent with Friday`s system, with a few inches of snow possible in the higher elevations. Steady precipitation ends Friday evening as the low heads east. Northwest flow will prevail in its wake, bringing upslope showers. Another system moves over the region on Sunday, bringing more rain to New England. Northwest flow returns for the start of next week, with snow showers expected north of the mountains. Southern areas and the coast should expect more dry and clearer conditions to start next week, and temperatures are anticipated to cool down through at least the first half of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term...VFR is likely tonight through Thursday. Clouds thicken and lower Thursday night with RA developing west to east after midnight. This will likely lead to conditions deteriorating to IFR by Friday morning. Long Term... MVFR and IFR likely Friday morning as a low brings rain and mountain snow across the region. Conditions should improve by Friday evening, with more restrictions likely on Sunday as another system moves through New England. Restrictions may continue through the start of the week in HIE as some mountain snow showers are expected. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds tonight through Thursday night. Southerly winds will prevail tonight through Thursday with increasing SE to E winds late Thursday night as low pressure approaches from the west. Long Term... A low well off in the Gulf of Maine looks to bring a light northeasterly flow on Friday. Seas look to be less than 2 ft, but will gradually increase through Saturday night. Winds out of the NW Saturday morning before shifting out of the south by the end of the day at 10-20kts. Southerly winds continue on Sunday. 3-5 foot seas are expected. Seas diminish as winds shift to westerlies. Winds look to remain at 10-20kts on Monday and Tuesday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Ekster SHORT TERM...Schroeter LONG TERM...Palmer

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