Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 132251
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
651 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Isolated showers are possible tonight followed by warm and
mostly dry conditions Thursday. A wave of low pressure moves
across New England Thursday night and Friday, bringing mostly
rain with mountain snow. Drier weather briefly returns for
Saturday before another system moves into the region for Sunday.
Temperatures look to progressively cool off starting next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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650 PM Update...Just a few isold sprinkles/showers out there
right now owing to weak WAA in advance of a weak warm front.
Really not changes to the going forecast at this time for this
evening.
Previously...
A weak wave moving across SE Quebec will spread clouds over the
area from west to east this evening. There continues to be weak
returns on radar across Vermont moving into NH while surface
observations suggest this precipitation is not reaching the
ground thanks to low to mid level dry air. BUFKIT soundings
suggest the atmosphere will moisten tonight that will allow for
isolated rain showers and scattered snow showers in the
mountains with little if any accumulation. Ample cloud cover and
modest warm air advection will lead to low temperatures tonight
in the low to mid 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Cloud cover will thin from SW to NE Thursday morning leading to
mostly sunny skies across southern NH and SW Maine with partly
cloudy skies across northern and eastern zones. Temperatures
will climb into the mid to upper 50s south of the White
Mountains and across interior SW Maine. Onshore winds will keep
coastal areas in the upper 40s with low 50s across central
Maine. Across the mountain and far north highs will be in the
mid 40s.
A wave of low pressure approaching from the west will bring
increasing clouds from west to east late Thursday into Thursday
night. This low will pass along the NH/MA border late Thursday
night spreading precipitation into the area after midnight.
Temperatures are likely to remain above freezing south of the
mountains with mainly rain expected. In the mountains thermal
profiles will be marginal for snow with precipitation possibly
starting as rain. Model soundings do suggest that there will be
some low level dry air that will allow for wet bulbing to cool
the atmospheric column to support a quick change to snow in the
mountains. The 12Z HREF members are in decent agreement that a
band of moderate snow will develop in the mountains during the
pre dawn hours that could lead to slick travel in mountain
towns, especially along roads at elevation. South of the
mountains travel impacts will be limited to moderate rainfall
into the morning commute.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Summary:
*Rain and snow likely Friday. Up to a few inches of snow possible
in the mountains, with mostly rain likely south of the mountains.
*More widespread rain and snow showers move through the region
Sunday.
*Northwest flow prevails early next week, with cooler than average
temperatures expected, cloudy and showery north of the mountains
with clear and dry weather expected along southern/coastal NH/ME.
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Discussion:
Friday will start with a low pressure system moving across New
England. The low looks to bring mostly rain outside of the mountains
and snow in the higher elevations. At this time, thermal
profiles suggest snowfall accumulation will be confined to the
mountains while some model solutions suggest there could be a
rain mixing with snow from the Lakes Region of NH through the
Capital District of Maine. Ensembles suggest between a quarter
to a half inch of liquid equivalent with Friday`s system, with
a few inches of snow possible in the higher elevations.
Steady precipitation ends Friday evening as the low heads east.
Northwest flow will prevail in its wake, bringing upslope showers.
Another system moves over the region on Sunday, bringing more rain
to New England. Northwest flow returns for the start of next week,
with snow showers expected north of the mountains. Southern areas
and the coast should expect more dry and clearer conditions to start
next week, and temperatures are anticipated to cool down through at
least the first half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...VFR is likely tonight through Thursday. Clouds
thicken and lower Thursday night with RA developing west to east
after midnight. This will likely lead to conditions
deteriorating to IFR by Friday morning.
Long Term...
MVFR and IFR likely Friday morning as a low brings rain and
mountain snow across the region. Conditions should improve by
Friday evening, with more restrictions likely on Sunday as
another system moves through New England. Restrictions may
continue through the start of the week in HIE as some mountain
snow showers are expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds tonight
through Thursday night. Southerly winds will prevail tonight
through Thursday with increasing SE to E winds late Thursday
night as low pressure approaches from the west.
Long Term...
A low well off in the Gulf of Maine looks to bring a light
northeasterly flow on Friday. Seas look to be less than 2 ft, but
will gradually increase through Saturday night. Winds out of
the NW Saturday morning before shifting out of the south by the
end of the day at 10-20kts. Southerly winds continue on Sunday.
3-5 foot seas are expected. Seas diminish as winds shift to
westerlies. Winds look to remain at 10-20kts on Monday and
Tuesday.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Ekster
SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Palmer