Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 301831 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 231 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. A BROAD SHALLOW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AT 18Z...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED A LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW MID COAST MAINE LOCATIONS...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD...WITH ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY SLIDING OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ON FRIDAY...WESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...CAN`T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IT`LL BE LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. PARTLY CLOUDY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS AHEAD OF NEXT DISTURBANCE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... BROAD SHALLOW SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTING A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL CANADA WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GOOD SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE SO THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END DURING THE EVENING. LOOKING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BRING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. CAPES WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION. REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THESE WILL BE BRIEF AND WIDELY SCATTERED AND WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY. AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION WOULD BE NORTHWEST ZONES. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FINALLY CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY TO KICK OFF MORE CONVECTION BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LOT DAYTIME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. HIGH WILL AVERAGE OUT BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 11Z SAT/...AREAS OF MVFR THROUGH 06Z IN SHRA AND SCT TSRA. LCL IFR PSBL IN FOG AND STRATUS BTW 06 AND 12Z FRI. VFR THROUGHOUT FRI AND FRI NIGHT. LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN SCATTERED DAYTIME CONVECTION. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THE OUTER WATERS BRIEFLY APPROACH 20 KT AND 5 FT FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD. LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

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