Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 181505 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1105 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A ROUND OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 11 AM UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN SO HAD TO EASE BACK ON THE FORECAST HIGHS A BIT. ALSO LEFT MOUNTAINS OBSCURED IN THE MOUNTAIN REC FORECAST A BIT LONGER AS UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THEM IN THE CLOUDS UNTIL AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. 800 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO SKY AND MOUNTAIN RECREATION FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO, INCLUDED FROST IN THE FORECAST WORDING FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH TEMPS AT 35 OR BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND WINDS SHOULD GET LIGHT ENOUGH FROM NORTH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS JUST CREEPING INTO NORTHWEST ZONES AND THIS BAND OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOWING UP NORTH OF THE BORDER AND MAY BRIEFLY DAMPEN PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. IN THE SOUTH EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAP TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. FARTHER SOUTH...DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70S ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... LOOKING FOR CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HARD FREEZE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AS TEMPS DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE WINDS OVERNIGHT SO MAY NOT EVEN SEE FROST IN COASTAL ZONES WERE OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL BE A REAL GUESSING GAME AS FAR AS AREAS THAT DECOUPLE OR NOT. WILL LIKELY NEED FROST ADVISORIES FOR PATCHY FROST. WITH THE SITUATION STILL EVOLVING WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT THE NEXT MODEL RUN BEFORE DECIDING ON FROST/FREEZE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS. EXPECT A SUNNY BUT COOL FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD. EXPECT MUCH OF THE REGION TO ONLY RANGE THROUGH THE 50S FOR HIGHS WHICH BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 500MB HEMISPHERIC PATTERN LOOK TO REMAIN UNSTABLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND WE START TO SHIFT FROM DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING TO BLOCKING IN BOTH DIRECTIONS. ULTIMATELY THIS COULD LEAD TO WARM SPELL...PROVIDED BOTH GFS/EURO ARE ON TRACK. BEFORE THAT...WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH ONE MORE 500 MB TROUGH THAT WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUE. ON SATURDAY WILL DEVELOP A WEAK WARM FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY AND SAT NIGHT. BEST FORCING REMAINS WELL TO THE N...BUT COULD PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHRA IN THE N SAT NIGHT. AFTER TEMPS WARM INTO THE 60S ON SAT OVERNIGHT MINS WILL FEEL BALMY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS THEY ONLY DROP INTO THE 50S. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE INCREASED SW FLOW...AND 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING 15C. TEMPS WILL RISE WELL INTO MID TO UPPER 70-S IN MANY SPOTS...BUT THE SW WINDS WILL KEEP THE COAST COOLER...ESPECIALLY THE MID-COAST WHERE HIGHS WILL PROBABLY PEAK OUT NEAR 70. WILL ALSO START TO SEE SHRA MOVE INTO FAR N AND W ZONES LATE IN THE DAY. THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING...AND THIS WILL BE THE BEST CH OF SHRA ACROSS THE CWA. BEHIND THE FRONT...LOOK FOR THE NW DOWNSLOPE TO BRING MINS UP TO AROUND 70 ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT IN THE MTNS HIGHS WILL ONLY GET TO THE LOWER 60S...AND LIKELY DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SOME COLDER AIR RETURN FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT MAX/MINS LOOK TO ONLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL. BY WED...AS LARGE SCALE 500MB RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL...WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN MORNING FOG TODAY...OTHERWISE VFR. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME VLY FOG POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT IN SHRA A HEAD OF A COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...MAY COME CLOSE TO NEEDING SCA`S TONIGHT...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS. LONG TERM...SW FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT COULD BRING WINDS AND SEAS TO SCA CRITERIA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ007>009- 012>014. NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ001>006. MARINE...NONE. && $$ KISTNER

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