Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 251126 AAA AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 726 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE...STAYING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WET WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE W...THEN SLIDE S THRU TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE FLOW BECOMING MORE SLY...AND WARMING TEMPS. SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...WITH SLY FLOW/SEA BREEZE KEEPING THE COAST COOLER. CHANNELED VORTICITY AROUND THE QUEBEC UPPER LOW WILL ALSO BE DIRECTED TOWARDS NRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHRA IN THE MTNS AS A RESULT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WE/RE SEEING THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL STILL FAVOR SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG. ATMOSPHERE WILL GROW INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF DEVELOPING ERN TROF...SO SHRA WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS SAT AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...BUT STILL OF THE SCT VARIETY. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXACT TIMING OF EACH ONE VARIES SLIGHTLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL. OVER ALL AN UNSETTLED PERIODS EXPECTED BEGINNING SAT NIGHT WITH THE FIRST IN THE SERIES TO AFFECT THE AREA. INDICES INDICATE TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MRNG. IF TIMING IS RIGHT, THEN A BRIEF BREAK WILL OCCUR SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT AS A MORE PRONOUNCED L/WV TROF SFC/UPR TROF SLOWLY MOVES THRU NEW ENGLAND. ON TUES SOME LINGERING SCT SHWRS EXPECTED AS THE TROF ONLY SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION AND ENOUGH CYCLONIC FLOW TO ALLOW INSTBLTY SHWRS TO DVLP. TEMPS WILL BE MILD BUT DUE TO CLDS/SHWRS LIMITED DIURNAL HEATING WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LWR 80S DURING THE DAY. NIGHTS WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. BY MIDWEEK CLEARING TAKES PLACE WITH A DRIER CANADIAN AMS WITH DRIER AND PLEASANT TEMPS. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND INPUT FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED A BLEND OF HPC AND MODEL GUID FOR QPF. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH HIGHLY VRB CIGS AND VSBYS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. MORE VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. LATE IN THE DAY SAT SHRA OR A TSTM MOVING IN FROM THE W COULD BRING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS TO PARTS OF NH. LONG TERM...SCT CONVECTION SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY LWRG CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES. CONDS IMPROVED TO VFR MIDWEEK. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND HOLDS THRU SAT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. UNDERCUT WNA AND SWAN GUIDANCE FOR SEAS SAT...AS THEY APPEAR TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO AND OVER 5 FT TOO QUICKLY IN SW FLOW REGIME. LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ON SUNDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KT. MODELS BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 5 FT OR ABOVE OVER THE OUTER WATERS ON THE S FLOW...THUS MAY NEED A SCA FOR LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...LEGRO

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