Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 161445 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1045 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT EXITED TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS AND WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND COULD PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1030 AM...SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND A FEW INSTABILITY CLOUDS ELSEWHERE...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVEN WITH THE SUNSHINE WE`LL BE RUNNING A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE...WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND ADDING AN EXTRA BITE TO THE COLD. THE GALE WAS DOWNGRADED TO AN SCA WITH THE UPDATE. PREV DISC... RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PROVIDE A SHARP END TO THE PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. SHOULD SEE A LOT OF SUN THOUGH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL GO CALM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH A CLEAR SKY... CALM WINDS... AND VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE... TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. RECORD COLD IS POSSIBLE AT PORTLAND AND CONCORD BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE RECORD LOW AT PORTLAND FOR THURSDAY IS 24 DEGREES SET IN 2003. AT CONCORD THE RECORD IS 18 SET IN 1908. BOTH RECORDS COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN. AIR MASS TRIES TO MODERATE A LITTLE BIT ON THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT ACROSS INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS BUT COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL SEE AN ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW BEGIN. THIS EASTERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... COLD AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODERATE A BIT ON FRIDAY AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. A FAST MOVING WAVE AT 500 MB CROSSES MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...SETTING OFF SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY RAIN. A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE HIGH CROSSES NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH MOVES OFF SHORE...AND SW FLOW SETS UP AGAIN...WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN...AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM... CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY AS THE RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS MORNING. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GO NEARLY CALM TONIGHT. LONG TERM... MAINLY VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM... NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. COULD STILL SEE A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH NOON. THE BAYS ARE NOW IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AS WIND GUSTS TO 25 OR 30 KT ARE EXPECTED THERE. SEAS MAY STAY ABOVE 5 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. LONG TERM... NO FLAGS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. && .HYDROLOGY... FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE EXTENDED AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS ACROSS NORTHERN NH INTO ADJACENT WESTERN ME THROUGH MID MORNING AS OUR FLASHY RIVERS ARE CRESTING NOW...AND THIS WILL GIVE THE STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS TIME TO FALL BELOW FLOOD LEVELS. SLOWER REACTING MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL NOT CREST UNTIL LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.
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&& $$ ES

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