Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KGYX 231021
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
621 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016
Drier air has briefly filtered into the area from the north for
today. However...clouds will return tonight and Tuesday along with
an increasing chance of showers as low pressure off the DELMARVA
moves north into the Gulf of Maine. A trailing cold front will
slowly cross the region Wednesday through Wednesday night and will
stall over southern New England Thursday. High pressure will build
in from the north during Thursday. A frontal system will bring
unsettled weather Friday and for the start of the holiday weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --618 AM...minor ESTF update to incorporate the 10z mesonet into
near term grids.
At 06z...a 1002 millibar low was centered near the southern tip of
Nova Scotia. A 10109 millibar high was centered near Lake Huron.
The northerly circulation around the Nova Scotia low has
temporarily drawn some drier air southward into the forecast area from
Quebec Province. Goes imagery showed mainly clear skies across the
area. The light winds and mainly clear skies was allowing areas of
fog and stratus to form across interior valley locations. For
today...skies will average partly to mostly sunny with the light
synoptic flow turning onshore by afternoon in a developing
seabreeze. Highs today will be in the 70s to lower 80s...with the
warmth tempered a bit near the coast in the onshore flow.
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.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
clouds will spread northward into the area tonight as the upper
low and surface reflection off the DELMARVA begin to drift
northward with scattered showers arriving late tonight and for the
day on Tuesday along with noticeably cooler temperatures.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Any showers should dissipate Tuesday evening as diurnal heating
shuts off and low pressure pulls away. Another short wave trough
approaching from the northwest will drive another cold front
across the region Wed and Wed night. This front may be accompanied
by showers and a few thunderstorms.
Nice and warm weather is expected on Thursday as a dry air mass
advects in from the north. Thereafter, maritime high pressure
nosing in from New Brunswick will set the stage for cool and
perhaps cloudy days Friday and Saturday along with chances for
showers and perhaps some elevated thunderstorms as short wave
troughs move through. Thereafter the various models differ on
whether or not the dense maritime airmass moves out for the rest
of the Memorial day weekend into next week. This will mean the
difference between summer-like conditions arriving or a
continuation of chilly and showery air mass remaining due to
onshore flow. We`ll have to wait and see.
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /through Tuesday/...areas of mvfr and lcl ifr this am
in valley stratus and fog...otw vfr expected. Lcl mvfr Psbl again
tonight across mtn valleys in stratus and fog. Areas of mvfr Psbl
tuesday in -shra.
Long Term...Local MVFR to IFR conditions in fog Tuesday night
otherwise VFR. VFR conditions are expected Wed outside of
scattered showers and thunderstorms. VFR Thu with lower conditions
Short Term /through Tuesday/...Swell with the offshore low will
create marginal small craft conditions today outside the bays.
The current SCA has been converted to an SCA for hazardous seas
with the marine package this morning.
Long Term...Relatively tranquil winds and seas expected Tue night
through Fri with sub-SCA conditions expected.
No fire weather concerns expected.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT this
evening for ANZ150-152-154.