Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 221949 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 249 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure moving east through southern Canada will drag the boundary back north as a warm front...leading to a mild night tonight and warmer day Thursday. Highs will climb into the 50s to near 60 across New Hampshire...with 40s to near 50 over western Maine. A weak shallow cold front will try and push south across the area by Thursday evening. But, once again the boundary lifts north as a warm front Friday night. A strong cold front and more widespread showers moves across the region Saturday night followed by a drier and colder air mass for Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The evening will start out mostly clear as per Satellite imagery suggests. By later tonight patchy valley fog is expected to develop due to the residual low level moisture from the snowmelt this afternoon combined with calm winds. Tonights overnight lows will be mild with temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Thursday models show a mild southwest flow to develop with h85 temps aloft to reach +6 to +8C. This flow should allow temps to reach near 50 in the mountains and southern Maine and could reach near 60 over southern NH. A weak cold front tries to push south across the area but weakens and then washes out as it moves through the area by Thu evening. A few showers are possible in the mountains with its passage Thursday afternoon and evening but it should remain dry elsewhere. Patchy fog may once again form overnight due to the snowmelt. Temps will once again be mild with overnight lows ranging from near 30 in the mountains and mid 30s to lower 40s elsewhere.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Models are in fairly good agreement in the long term. A frontal boundary will stall just south of the region Friday...then start to push back through the area as a warm front Friday night as low pressure moves northeast through southern Quebec. This will lead to a rather warm day Saturday. As the low continues northeast Saturday night the trailing cold front will cross the region with rain showers which will change to snow showers in the mountains overnight Saturday night as colder air pushes into the region. At this time it appears that the moist system moving northeast in Atlantic will not phase with the northern frontal system until after it passes through the region. The models continue to show the heaviest showers with the frontal passage in the mountains...and combined with the snowmelt caused by the warm temperatures may produce some ice movement on the rivers. Drier air moves into the area Sunday but with a northwest flow there will be a persistent threat of snow showers in the mountains through Monday. Weak systems pass north and south of the region late Monday and Tuesday with the next threat of significant precipitation for the area on Wednesday.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Short Term...VFR conditions tonight will become locally IFR in developing areas of valley fog aft 06z. The valley fog with IFR conditions is expected to burn off by 14z but with some MVFR cigs remaining. VFR conditions will prevail elsewhere. Long Term...MVFR to IFR conditions possible in showers and fog Friday night into Saturday night. MVFR to IFR conditions will persist in the mountains in scattered snow showers through Monday.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term...A warm front moves north across the waters tonight. A developing southwest flow Thu will begin to build seas to near 5 ft by evening and continue Thu night. SCA`s may be needed for Thu night due to seas over the outer waters. Long Term...SCAs likely outer waters late Saturday through Monday and again on Wednesday.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Marine SHORT TERM...Marine LONG TERM...Jensenius

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