Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 260152 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 952 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will slowly cross the region late tonight and Friday. High pressure will build in from the west on Saturday and will shift east of the region on Sunday. A cold front will slowly push east through the region on Monday. High pressure will build in behind the front Monday night through Tuesday. A weak cold front will cross the region during the mid week period. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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945 pm update: All showers have cleared the forecast area so have lowered pops with maybe a few sprinkles popping up over the next several hours over mainly southern areas. Took out any mention of thunderstorms until toward morning when front approaches but at best they would be isolated. Made a few minor tweaks on temps bases on latest obs data. No other changes at this time. 640 pm Update: A few very light showers or spinkles passing mainly through southern NH. Will extend the chc 20-30 pops further east across southern NH for the next few hours but leave forecast for tonight alone. Input latest mesonet data and suggested only minor adjustement for temps for the early evening hours. Previous Discussion: Weak cold front will approach from the northwest tonight bringing a few showers and possibly a stray thunderstorm...mainly this evening. Expect areas of fog after midnight. Low temperatures will range through the 60s to near 70 degrees.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Cold front will gradually drop south through the region on Friday. Morning clouds will gradually give way to partly to mostly sunny skies. Heating will generate some modest capes and a few showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly in southern areas as the front pushes through in the afternoon. Highs on friday will range through the 80s to near 90. Cooler and less humid air will filter into the region Friday night as high pressure builds in from the west. Looking for mostly clear skies and light winds overnight. Low temps will bottom out in the lower to mid 50s north and upper 50s to mid 60s south. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Over the weekend high pressure builds in from the north allowing cooler and drier air to filter in. Bubble high pressure develops over the Gulf of Maine bringing the seacoast of NH and possibly southern portions of coastal Maine onshore flow resulting in a partial sea breeze and slightly cooler temperatures there. Overall temperatures will be several degrees cooler across the south and inland areas. Increasing moisture and warmth returns areawide Sunday evening as high pressure shifts east. Expect to see another sea breeze with this one penetrating farther inland. After a low of around 0.60", PW values increase once again to near 1.70" ahead of the next short wave disturbance. Showers should develop Sunday afternoon becoming widespread by Monday morning. The cold front will move through NH and most of western Maine by early afternoon. Bulk shear is not bad but there will little instability so have only included thunderstorms ahead of and along the boundary where forcing for ascent is best. Most locations won`t receive much QPF if any... but with the high moisture in the atmospheric column localized downpours are possible. Another deeper short wave will affect the northeast around midweek. Timing and other details are not in high confidence and ensemble members are in poor agreement after have only included isolated showers at this time. Behind the FROPA it does look windy for Wednesday night and Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens between low pressure to the east and high pressure to the west. Cooler air will arrive Thursday as a Canadian airmass noses in from the north. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term...Areas of ifr/lifr ceilings/vsby overnight. VFR Friday night and Saturday. Long Term...VFR conditions through the weekend. Lowering clouds expected late Sunday night into Monday morning with MVFR or lower conditions in showers and possibly thunderstorms. This will be a greater threat for HIE AND LEB initially. Improving conditions on Tuesday after some morning fogs. && .MARINE... Short Term...Continuing sca`s from this evening through 800 am. Long Term...High pressure crosses the Gulf of Maine this weekend with light winds expected. A cold front will arrive from the northwest Monday morning, though winds with the front should remain below advisory levels. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ150-152-154. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.