Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 160433 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1233 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... 1230AM UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POP TO 100 AS ALL AREAS ARE SEEING PRECIPITATION. ALSO HAVE PARTICULARLY TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT THE FACT THAT A RATHER WIDE SWATH OF SNOW IS OCCURRING ON THE BACK EDGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD AS TEMPERATURES AT ALL LEVELS ARE TUMBLING BEHIND THE FRONT. AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING. RAIN/SNOW LINE IS POSSIBLY VIEWABLE ON RADAR REFLECTIVITY AS THE BRIGHTER BAND OF ECHOES EXTENDING FROM WORCESTER TO CONCORD TO CONWAY AND PUSHING EASTWARD. HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND ADJUSTED THE TREND OF THESE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE ALREADY WELL INTO THE MID 20S IN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. EARLIER UPDATE... UPDATED THE FORECAST. DROPPED THE FLOOD WATCH NOW THAT WE ARE IN WARNING MODE FOR MOST INTERIOR ZONES DUE TO EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT. THE FLOOD THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN SINCE THERE IS LIMITED RAINFALL IN THAT AREA AND NO SNOW MELT. THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT MEETING CRITERIA FOR A WIND ADV WHICH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER. WINDS WILL STAY BELOW CRITERIA THRU THE NIGHT. STILL SHOULD CONT TO BE WINDY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MUCH LESS THAN EXPECTED, EXCEPT NORTHERN NH INTO ADJACENT WESTERN ME WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS WERE POSTED FOR SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS. STILL SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL QPF THRU THE NIGHT. ALREADY BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS THRU THE NIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN ME AT THIS TIME WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM S TO W NW. STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL EASE UP A COUPLE HOURS OR SO AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THRU AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A PERIOD OF SLEET POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE SN AND SLEET WILL FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. OVER DOWNSLOPE AREAS AND CHANGE OVER WILL BE BRIEF AS DRIER AIR AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHUT OFF THE PRECIPITATION. FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENT HAVE LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER WESTERN ZONES TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER OUR EASTERN MOST ZONES. BLACK ICE MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IN THE N/MT ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK AS TEMPS DROP QUICKLY BELOW FREEZING...AND INTO THE 20S IN MANY OF THESE AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S BY DAYBREAK. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BUFFET THE REGION DURING THE MORNING BUT WILL LET UP SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOST AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS TO SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. FARTHER NORTH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL AGAIN DROP BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH AND MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. CLEAR AND VERY COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA. LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DIP INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO HOLD POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. A CHILLY EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP THE COASTLINE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN A FEW WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COOL...AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE REGION...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN THE NORTH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT TO VFR WITH HIE HOLDING ON TO MVFR CIG/VSBY THE LONGEST. GUSTY W NW WINDS FOLLOW A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE E OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. VFR WEDNESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA. WILL CONT THE GLW WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 45 KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS. STRONG S WINDS SHIFT TO THE W NW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES W TO E ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. GALES CONT INTO WEDNESDAY THEN WINDS AND SEAS DROP OFF. LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. && .HYDROLOGY... SEVERAL FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTHERN NH INTO ADJACENT WESTERN ME. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE. THE FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED... SEE PWMFFAGYX FOR MORE DETAILS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE

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