346
FXUS61 KGYX 101137
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
737 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and unsettled weather pattern is expected through the
next several days as a longwave trough gradually crosses the
area. Although day-to-day details are relatively uncertain,
there will be several opportunities for rain showers through
this time. No days are expected to be washouts, however. Below-
average temperatures are expected through this weekend, then
will start to trend warmer next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730am Update...Dry air in the region is really doing a number on
incoming moisture and clouds arriving from the SW. Modified
cloud cover over the next few hours to tone it back, but do
expect a diurnal deck to develop midday. Any shower activity
should mostly fall towards the mountains, with sprinkles
elsewhere across the interior.

Previous Discussion...
Low pressure passes well south of the region today, with a rain
shield across much of the interior Northeast pivoting east.
Meanwhile, high pressure to the NE will continue to feed dry air
at the surface across much of northern New England.

While much of the CWA will see partly to mostly cloudy skies
today, the threat for showers or sprinkles will be limited to
mainly the interior. This is where warmer surface temps and
moisture in the low levels will combine for some diurnal shower
development this afternoon. CAMs depict a lot of this occuring
near the mountains and foothills, but could see additional
development through the rest of the interior around peak
heating. Showers that do develop will be light, with plenty of
dry air throughout the column.

Kept temperatures roughly in line with NBM guidance, but opted
to run lower in places where clouds may be more likely or
onshore flow a bit cooler. This should result in many locations
seeing highs in the mid to upper 50s today, remaining in the 40s
for much of the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Areal coverage of showers decreases overnight, with clouds
persisting. There is uncertainty exactly how overcast it remains
tonight, and this could again bring variation to overnight lows
amid light winds. With more clouds expected across parts of NH
vs. southern ME for much of the night, opted to run slightly
cooler temps in ME. However, clouds and moisture arriving from
the NE may bring in additional clouds late.

Moisture wrapping around passing low to the east will arrive
across Maine early Saturday as temperatures again climb in the
mid 50s. Showers are again expected to develop as warming
begins, initially across portions of southern ME and then into
NH. As showers development here will be better forced than
Friday, have a wider presentation of PoPs across the interior.
However, the limitations of dry air will again be present. A bit
more CAPE or instability will be available, however warming
aloft will put a lid on just how tall clouds get on the day.
Thus, showers may pack a bit more rain than those that develop
Friday, but still a low chance of any one location seeing a
fulfilling wetting rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A long-wave trough overhead will define the extended forecast
period, with embedded shortwaves providing periods of rain
showers around the region. Temperatures will fall within
seasonal norms, with below-average conditions under more
maritime influence this weekend transitioning to near- or above-
average as the trough shifts east and allows drier, warmer,
continental air to filter in next week. Overall, not expecting
any weather impacts besides perhaps some dense fog at times...
though there is little confidence in where, when, or if that
happens given the nebulous nature of the pattern at this time.

Upper level low pressure settles overhead by Sunday with a very
weak pressure gradient, which will once again allow a sea
breeze to develop amid light background flow. Though low
confidence... there is model agreement with deeper moisture
building across the region allowing for more cloud development
Saturday night into Sunday. Model guidance is mixed for
precipitation chances on Sunday, but in general increasing
cyclonic flow and mixing should at least contribute a diurnal
component to rain shower activity on Sunday.

The upper level trough shifts east into Monday with shortwave
ridging briefly building to start the coming work week. This
should offer a brief period where we actually manage to have
minimal precipitation chances... although timing that out may be
a challenge in the short-wave driven pattern, especially as it
turns a bit more zonal before another trough wanders in around
mid-week. All in all, the trough shifting east brings the
reasonable expectation for a warming trend, on average, early in
the week as a southerly to southwesterly flow regime takes
over. Current model consensus brings widespread 60s and 70s,
coolest in the mountains where clouds are most likely and along
the coast with a southerly component to flow. Though, increasing
humidity and ripples in the upper wave pattern continues
potential for rain showers... especially as a warm front
overtakes the region, followed by potential for a more organized
system around mid-week with the next long wave trough.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR for most locations, with SCT or occasionally
BKN MVFR decks. These should be limited to Friday morning and
again Saturday. SHRA develop for interior terminals today, with
coastal locations seeing chances Saturday. Dry overnight,
although valley fog may develop.

Long Term...Potential for lowered CIGs Sat night through Sun
along with -SHRA. The pattern in general from Sun into next week
favors periodic restrictions, mainly CIG, and light flow
allowing daily sea breezes. But, this is a particularly low-
confidence forecast in terms of timing and day- to-day details.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Conditions below SCA, but NE winds continue through
Saturday 10 to 15 kts. Wave heights 1 to 3 ft through Saturday.

Long Term...Light flow and quiet seas are expected over the
extended forecast period with SCA conditions unlikely to occur.
In general, winds this weekend will be NE, then will turn out of
the SW to start the next week however daily sea breezes and a
nebulous pressure gradient will muddy this progression a bit.
The best chance for 25+ kt winds, right now, comes around Tue
with a more organized system potentially crossing the region.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High astronomical tides combined with
around 0.8 feet of surge may push water levels to around minor
flood stage around the time of high tide once more tonight. A
Coastal Flood Advisory or Statement may be necessary, however
any impacts will be very minor.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Cornwell
SHORT TERM...Cornwell
LONG TERM...Casey