Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 170718 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 318 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into the region through early next week, however moist conditions will continue with fog expected each night and morning. Tropical system Jose will approach New England by mid week. Canadian high pressure will build into the region late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Clear skies tonight over much of the area has given way to dense fog which is lowest in the Connecticut River valleys, the notches, other mountain valleys, and also along the coast where moisture from Irma and Jose meets. A large area of stratus over the Gulf of Maine has moved just inland and will drift back offshore later this morning. Once again expecting fog to dissipate rather late this morning in a few of the more stubborn valleys. We will have another mostly to partly sunny day with highs warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s thanks to increasing heights across the area.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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Moisture continues to be lofted northward ahead of Jose and another night of widespread fog and stratus is forecast. Drizzle along the immediate coast is also possible. Overnight lows will be on the warm side thanks to increasing clouds from southeast to northwest overnight. Deterministic and ensemble model guidance for Jose are in agreement the storm system will be off the North Carolina coast by Monday night. Showers will begin to spread north and we should see a slight chance for precipitation blossom across the region, especially as afternoon heating ensues. Although showers will be widely scattered at first, some cells will have heavy rainfall.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Jose will continue to head north Monday night although just how far north still in question as ECMWF guidance still lagging behind GFS and is farther west with its track. Have played it conservative with pops for Monday night and expect any shower activity in far southern zones to hold off at least until daybreak Tuesday. Ocean stratus will once again spread inland Monday evening and should overspread much of the forecast area south of the mountains and foothills as onshore flow increases overnight. Lows overnight will range from the mid 50s to near 60. Showers will become more widespread in coastal and southern interior zones on Tuesday as Jose continues to slowly move north. Only looking for light amounts of rainfall through the day with generally a quarter inch or less in coastal zones. High temperatures will top out near 70 across much of the forecast area. Occasional showers will continue Tuesday night and will be heavy at times as PWAT`s push 1.5 inches or better in southern zones. Winds will also be on the increase as Jose makes its closest approach to the area before turning east on Wednesday. At this point models keeping heaviest of QPF well south of the forecast area but with continuing model diffs in mind...axis of heaviest precip still in play and may have to be adjusted in future forecasts as models converge on a solution and common track. With models still diverging at mid week will keep likey to chance pops going for southern zones on Wednesday although a majority of this activity may be south and east of the forecast area. Far northern zones will see the best chance for sun with southern zones remaining mostly cloudy. Highs will top out in the lower to mid 70s. Quiet weather should return Wednesday night and Thursday as low pressure pulls away and high pressure builds in from the northwest. High temperatures both Thursday and Friday will reach the lower to mid 70s. Expect high pressure to persist across northern New England into the weekend with temperatures running above normal.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Short Term... IFR to LIFR conditions in dense fog will dissipate late this morning. Used last night`s fog timing to determine when fog may burn off this morning at the different terminals. Otherwise light SSE winds will keep clouds along the coast with another round of dense fog likely tonight into Monday morning. Long Term...IFR/LIFR ceilings overspread much of coastal and southern iterior zones Monday night and will persist through Tuesday night. Expect improving condition Wedneday through Wednesday night. VFR Thursday through Friday.
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&& .MARINE... Short Term...Quiet water in terms of winds and seas. Onshore flow and high pressure will keep overcast skies and fog in the waters through the start of next week. Long Term...Seas and winds will remain below SCA thresholds. However, building long period swells will approach the coast next week as Jose moves northeast off the coast. Marine areas will see impacts regardless of track with large swells and a developing north to northeasterly winds likely on the waters. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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There is a moderate risk of rip currents today for area beaches. Hurricane Jose will pass east of the region on Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will result in long period swell, and an increased risk for beach erosion and splash-over or possibly coastal flooding mid week. Dangerous rip currents are possible.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MEZ018-019- 023>028. NH...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NHZ010-013- 014. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...Hanes SHORT TERM...Hanes LONG TERM...Sinsabaugh

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