Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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678 FXUS61 KGYX 280719 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 319 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY...AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH ANTHER LOW PASSING OFFSHORE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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AT 06Z...A 1037 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED WEST OF HUDSON BAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...GOES INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH COOL DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME MID AND UPPER 40S FOR THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. AN IMPULSE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WILL SPREAD A FEW CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST MAINE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THEN TODAY GIVEN AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH IMPACT WX: NONE. THE COLD CLOSED 500MB LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE SHIFT NWD AND FILL OVER THE WEEKEND. AS UP AND DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING WEAKEN A BIT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME NEAR ZONAL THRU THE WEEKEND BEFORE WE GET INTO MEAN TROUGHING OVER ERN NOAM EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS RIDGES BUILD TO OUR EAST AND WEST...AND THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS THIS TROUGH IS NOT AS COLD AS THE ONE WE ARE EXPERIENCING NOW...AND TEMPS OVER ALL WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY AS SFC RIDGE TRAVERSES NRN NEW ENGLAND FROM W TO E WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL INLAND...AND A BIT COOLER AS FLOW SHIFTS S-SE ON THE COAST. SUNDAY WE SEE A WAVE MOVE TRY TO MOVE THRU WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AT 500 MB...AND MAY SEE SOME WAA PRECIP MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY...AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS WELL S OF NEW ENGLAND AND TAKES OVER. WILL SEE A LOT CLOUDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT PRECIP MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL INTO DRY LOW LVL AIR MASS THRU A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY. ANOTHER 600 MB WAVE APPROACHES MONDAY AND CROSSES THE REGION MON NIGHT...AND THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER WEAK LOW THAT WILL PASS JUST S OF THE CWA...AND HAS A BETTER CHC TO PRODUCE RAIN MON-MON NIGHT. COULD BE SOME COLD AIR DAMMING AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND MAY MAKE FOR A CHILLY DAY...BUT TEMPS ALOFT GENERALLY AROUND OR ABOVE ZERO...AND IF THERE IT IS ANY SNOW IT WOULD BE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOOKS LIKE SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR TUE. FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...IT IS HARD TO FIND A LOT OF AGREEMENT ON MUCH OF ANYTHING. THERE MAY BE A 500MB CLOSED LOW PASSING SOMEWHERE TO OUR N...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME RAIN AT SOME POINT.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...VFR. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME POSSIBLE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SUN AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING....ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS...IN LOW CIGS AND SHRA.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...QUIET UNDER SURFACE RIDGE WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD. LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERION INTO SUNDAY EVE. MAY SEE WINDS/SEAS APPROACH SCA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS COASTAL LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR 20 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS AND WE WON`T HIT METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL SEE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY. GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY...AN ONSHORE WIND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SCHWIBS/CEMPA

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