Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 161047 AAA AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 647 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HOLD OFF THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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.UPDATE... ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE SHOWERS ON RADAR AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS. OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK THIS MORNING.
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&& PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LIGHT SHOWERS ALREADY IN PROGRESS MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NH IN POORLY ORGANIZED WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. WRF-NMM MODEL HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON CONVECTION THIS MORNING SO HAVE USED THIS MODEL THE FIRST FEW HOURS. FORCING IS NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM NOR IS MOISTURE SO AM EXPECTING MORE OF WHAT WE ARE SEEING AT PRESENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE BETTER FORCING MOVES EAST. THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM NEAR KPSM NORTHWARD TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP FOCUS RAIN ON THE MESOSCALE AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDES ANOTHER SOURCE OF LIFT. STILL PROBABLY WILL SEE ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... DRIER AIR HELPS USHER IN COOLER AIR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL HELP SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WITH A FEW MID 30S FILTERING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. LOWER TO MID 40S SHOULD BE AS LOW AS THE LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN DROP. WEDNESDAY LOOKS A BIT WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY... ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN...AS THE COOLER AIRMASS MODERATES QUICKLY. CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT THE REST OF MAINE AND NH WILL ENJOY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL LIKELY CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY LITTLE FORCING WITH THIS BOUNDARY SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS UP AND EXPECT LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S. MORNING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A HARD FREEZE IN THE NORTH WHERE LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL SEE A WIDESPREAD FROST WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 30S. COASTAL SECTIONS WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR 40 BUT SOME LOW SPOTS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST. SUNNY BUT COOL WEATHER CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 50S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL EDGE BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY BUT MAY SQUEAK OUT ONE MORE NICE DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 70S IN WARMER SOUTHERN ZONES. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...SOME BRIEF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS PRIMARILY DUE TO FOG...OTHERWISE EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS FOR THIS LIGHT RAIN EVENT ENDING BETWEEN 18Z- 21Z TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EVENTUALLY WESTERLY. LONG TERM...VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. && .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS WAVES INCREASE ABOVE 5 FT. LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ HANES/SINSABAUGH

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