Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 191355 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 955 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE FOR A DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND. THE HIGH WEAKENS A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ALLOWS WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AT END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPDATE... UPDATED THE GRIDS THIS MORNING TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO POUR INTO MAINE/NEW HAMPSHIRE PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER MUCH OF THESE CLOUDS ARE HIGH/THIN CS. MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT FORECASTS. HIGHS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE CLOUD COVER...WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES FURTHER TO THE NORTH. A SEA BREEZE WILL KICK IN SHORTLY ALONG THE SHORELINE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. PREV DISC... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. MEANWHILE UPPER RIDGE OVER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HAS A SHARP SHORTWAVE EXTENSION INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULT IS WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. HOWEVER... CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS GRADUALLY PUSHING INTO THE AREA. THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY... WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY ENDING UP PRETTY CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY IN THE END. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL ARRIVE LATER AND BE LESS EXTENSIVE... ALLOWING THIS AREA TO TAKE BETTER ADVANTAGE OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TODAY... AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT ABOUT 700 MB WILL CAP ANY INSTABILITY THAT IS ABLE TO BE GENERATED FROM HEATING TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ALTHOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND... AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD. THIS COULD ADD TO THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA... ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. BUT DO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND A LITTLE HIGHER DEW POINTS. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH... BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER FORMING OVER THE TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... STRONG RIDGING AT 500 MB OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW JET STREAM TO LIFT NORTHWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY... AND WILL SEE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WORK IN. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO 15C ON TUESDAY... AND APPROACH 18C ON WEDNESDAY... BEFORE 500 MB TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. MONDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85... COOLER ON THE SHORE. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT... WILL SEE A LIGHT EAST FLOW DEVELOP... AND EXPECT COASTAL STATUS AND FOG MOVING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SHOULD SEE CLEARING ON TUESDAY... AS THE SW FLOW DEVELOPS... WITH HIGHS INLAND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND AROUND 80 ON THE COAST. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOT DAY... AS HIGHS REACH TO AROUND 90 INLAND... AND MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST COASTAL AREAS. WILL START TO SEE SOME THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS... ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES... AS HIGH INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH SOME WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. 00Z EURO AND GFS ARE COMING INTO BETTER SYNC AS FAR AS TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK WAVE ALONG THE FRONT... WHICH ALL COMES TOGETHER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT... WHICH WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY IF THE 500 MB LOW DEEPENS AS MUCH AS THE EURO SUGGESTS. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY... WITH SOME CUMULUS FORMING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON BENEATH A LAYER OF HIGH CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE FLOW DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FOG TONIGHT AS CLOUDS PREVENT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LONG TERM... MAINLY VFR...BUT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG MONDAY NIGHT... AND VALLEY FOG MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... MAINLY KLEB/KHIE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM... FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LONG TERM... CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH WILL SEE INCREASING SW FLOW LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

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