Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 131232 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 832 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PRECEDED BY CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN. A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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825 AM...FORECAST UPDATED MAINLY FOR POPS...TO BETTER REFLECT TIMING OF THIS BATCH OF PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE SRN AND WRN ZONES THIS ZONES...WITH LESS CHC OF POPS IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME ISOL THUNDER TO THE FORECAST...AS THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE WARM BOUNDARY...AND SOME LIGHTNING/THUNDER BEING REPORTED IN VICINITY OF HUDSON VALLEY NY ATTM. PREV DISC... AT 06Z...A COLD FRONT HAD SETTLED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAD BROKEN OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC IN DEVELOPING OVERRUNNING PATTERN TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR TODAY THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY RETURN NORTH WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FOUND NEAR OUR INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WHILE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WILL BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR TODAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME AS THE COOL ONSHORE FLOW SLOWS THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. THE BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A COLUMN THAT IS INITIALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF SLEET OR WET SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 60S OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THE WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE IN ITS WAKE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. ON MONDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL WARM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...WITH 60S ELSEWHERE. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG EAST OF BRUNSWICK IN THE ONSHORE TRAJECTORY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A WARM RAINY DAY IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT WILL BE NEARLY N/S ORIENTED AND WILL MOVE QUITE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR HIGH PWAT AIR WITH BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MAINE CONTRIBUTING TO THE MOISTURE POOL. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALL DAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST AXIS ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE NH AND WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...AND THE AUGUSTA/MIDCOAST REGION TOWARDS EVENING. QPF TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 0.75-1.25 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH TODAY`S PRECIPITATION...CONTINUED SNOW MELT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ELSEWHERE FROM RECENT WARM WEATHER...AND ICE JAMS ON RIVERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FLOODING FOR AREA RIVERS. SOME OF THESE RIVERS ARE ALREADY HIGH FROM SNOW MELT...AND A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE HAZARDS. THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY ONCE AN UPSTREAM KICKER SWINGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND OR MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAINLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND HOW FAST THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND IN RELATION TO THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AFTER A TUMBLE INTO THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY FOR HIGHS...TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE MID TO NEAR 60 FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MVFR CONDS A GOOD BET TODAY AT KHIE/KAUG...AND POSSIBLY LATE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING COASTAL TERMINALS. SFC WND ON MONDAY WILL GUSTS TO 25 KT. LONG TERM...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN +RA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN VFR MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM/ THROUGH MONDAY/...A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING...AND S-SW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND PERSIST BEHIND THIS FRONT...REACHING SCA LEVELS BY TONIGHT. LONG TERM...GALES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS WITH WINDS 35-45 KTS AND WAVES 8-11 FT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY MOST OF WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY...
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THE COMBINATION RAPID SNOW MELT AND SOME PERIODS OF RAIN WILL KEEP MOST RIVERS RUNNING HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. ICE MOVEMENT WILL ADD TO THE UNPRECICTABILITY OF WATER LEVELS ON AREA RIVERS TODAY AND MONDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WENESDAY AS POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITHA COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014- 018>028. NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CEMPA SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE... HYDROLOGY...

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