Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KGYX 220426 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1226 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure continues to push off to the east tonight as a weak cold front drops south out of Canada. At the same time... a coastal low pressure system will form south of Cape Cod and move northeast offshore of the mainland. The result will be cloudy skies and a chance for showers along the coast tomorrow and also over the mountains. An upper level trough of low pressure then stalls over New England for most of the week. This will generate cool and unsettled conditions.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1220 AM...Minor ESTF update to reflect the current mesonet and satellite trends in near term grids. PREV DISC... 1005 pm...Pops pushed back again, generally keeping the overnight period dry, other than maybe a few isolated showers in the mountains. Also tweaked temps just a little bit, with lows maybe a degree or two warmer in some spots. 8 pm...just a quick update to fine tune some forecast elements, but overall forecast remains unchanged thru the overnight...with just a few sprinkles in the n this evening...and then a few isolated shra developing late tonight, as any precip that does fall will be from mid lvl deck and have a lot of dry air to overcome on its way down. 435 pm...Have removed any chc POPs thru sunset given the lack of any upstream radar and 30-40F dew point depressions. Also slowed the increase of the chc pops tonight as well. Previously...Increasing clouds tonight as low pressure begins to develop off the mid-Atlantic coast and move north and east. At the same time... a weak cold front will drop south out of Canada tonight. While not particularly strong... it will set up an interesting weather pattern for tomorrow.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... Surface low pressure will pass to the east of the forecast area tomorrow as the mid-Atlantic low moves east of Cape Cod. However... the low will be just close enough to generate some instability near the coast. The result could be some scattered showers. Also... the weak cold front that will move into northern portions of the CWA tonight will stall over the mountains. With some heating during the day tomorrow... this could be just enough of a focus to get some showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms to form over the terrain. While any precipitation near the coast would be driven by synoptic scale forces... any precipitation over the mountains should die quickly after diurnal heating gets cut off. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Meandering closed low over the mid Atlantic coast will keep a trough of low pressure in place off the coast on Monday. Should see a dry day with a mix of sun and clouds in the south and mostly sunny skies north. High temperatures inland will top out in the lower 70s while an will cap temps in the mid to upper 60s in the along the coast. Upper low forecast to drift north Monday night and Tuesday. Trapped surface low with drift along with it increasing the moist onshore flow and bringing ocean stratus into much of southern New Hampshire and southwest Maine by Tuesday morning. Lows overnight will be fairly uniform across the forecast area ranging from the upper 40s in the north to lower 50s in the south. Tuesday looking pretty gloomy with low clouds over- -spreading most of the forecast area. Not a lot of lift associated with this system but areas of drizzle and scattered showers will dampen mainly southern zones through the day. May get enough heating and cape to pop off a thunderstorm in the Connecticut valley and far northwest zones. Once again highest temps will be in northern zones with readings near 70. Remainder of the forecast area will range through the 60s. More of the same for Tuesday night as low pressure weakens as it shifts north into the Gulf of Maine. Expect widely scattered showers and areas of drizzle in southern zones overnight. Lows overnight will again dip into the upper 40s to lower 50s across the region. Wednesday looking mostly cloudy through the first half of the day as weak low pressure continues to drift north. Expect partly sunny skies in northern zones. Low clouds will gradually erode in southern zones with some sunny breaks developing in the afternoon. Should see a better chance of showers and thunderstorms...mainly across northern and western zones. Onshore flow will cap high temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s across southern Maine and coastal New Hampshire while northern and western zones top out in the mid to upper 70s. Upper low will finally drift off to the east Wednesday night as upper ridge builds in from the west. Looking for partly cloudy skies overnight with lows ranging through the 50s. Thursday will be partly to mostly sunny and very warm with high temps reaching the lower to mid 80s in southern New Hampshire and extreme southwest Maine. An afternoon sea breeze will cap highs in the lower to mid 70s along the coast. Highs will also top out in the 70s in the north. Cold front edging in from the west will produce variable cloudiness Thursday night. Will see some mild overnight lows with readings ranging through the 50s to near 60. Friday looking like another warm one although a fair amount of high and mid level clouds will be around for much of the day as the cold front sags into northern zones by late in the day. Should see enough instability to pop off afternoon showers and thunderstorms with best pops in northern zones. Highs will again range through the 70s in coastal and northern zones and lower to mid 80s in southern New Hampshire. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term /through Sunday night/...Expect VFR conditions tonight at all locations. Some MVFR conditions in rain showers may be possible tomorrow and tomorrow night. Long Term...Areas of mvfr ceiling in coastal areas Monday morning otherwise VFR. mvfr/ifr ceilings developing Monday night and persisting through Wednesday morning. Becoming VFR Wednesday afternoon. VFR Thursday. && .MARINE... Short term...Low pressure will linger just to the east of the waters early in the week. The result may be some fairly large swells and waves being generated and pushed back over the waters behind the system. Long term...No problems noted. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions today from warm temperatures and low dewpoints will begin to moderate tonight. Increasing clouds will couple with a weak frontal boundary dropping south out of Canada to generate good relative humidity recovery tonight and tomorrow. An upper level trough of low pressure then dominates the weather through the majority of the week. This will result in cool and unsettled weather and will reduce fire weather concerns to a minimum. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ ES

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.