Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KGYX 042151 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 551 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
545 PM UPDATE: QUICK UPDATE TO TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF THE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING AS THEY HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT MAYBE A SHOWER LATER IN THE EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: CURRENT BATCH OF -SHRA OVER SRN AND CENTRAL NH IS THE RESULT OF 700MB DEFORMATION ZONE ON ASSOCIATED UPPER LVL TROUGH TO OUR NW AND SFC LOW TO THE S. MODELS DO INDICATE THAT THIS FORCING PEAKS AROUND 18Z AND WEAKENS THRU THIS EVENING AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE NRN SYSTEM. ALSO...THE MODELS AGREE THAT WE HAVE PRETTY MUCH SEEN THE FARTHEST EWD AND NWD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP...ALTHOUGH I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES WORKING INTO INTERIOR YORK/ CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THRU ABOUT 5 PM. OTHERWISE... THE RAIN OVER SRN NH WILL DIMINISH THRU ABOUT 21-22Z...LEADING TO A MAINLY DRY EVENING HERE...AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. EVENING TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPR 60S. THE MID- HIGH CLOUDS ARE LKLY TO LINGER THRU THE EVE...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT.. MINS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 IN THE N...TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE COAST AND IN URBAN SRN NH. THE SECOND UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING JUST N OF THE CWA TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND COULD START SEEING A FEW SHRA POPPING UP IN THE MTNS LATE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSES N OF THE CWA AROUND MIDDAY...SO THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHRA IN THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A FEW TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...GIVEN SOME LOWERING 500MB HEIGHTS...AND INCREASING LOW LVL HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY-PARTLY SUNNY DAY IN THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL TOP IN THE MID 70S N...AND ON THE COAST...TO THE LOW 80S IN SRN NH AND INTERIOR SW ME. SUN NIGHT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY CLEAR...BUT TDS WILL BE CREEPING UP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY EVENING...AND THIS WILL KEEP MINS GENERALLY IN THIS RANGE AS WELL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MONDAY WILL BE A HOT DAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR 14-16 C OVER PORTIONS OF NH AND MAINE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS. A SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RIGHT ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. OTHERWISE MID 80S ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH LOWER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MOVES OFFSHORE. A SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS HELPING A SURFACE LOW DEEPEN AND EJECT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AND WARM SHOWERS WILL KICK OFF ACROSS NH TUESDAY MORNING... REACHING MAINE BY THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WELL NORTH BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND FRONTOGENESIS FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. SHOWERS MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BEFORE WE SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK UNDERNEATH THE HIGH PRESSURE DOME. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN VLY FOG AT KHIE/KLEB TONIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CREATING MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME ENHANCED S-SW FLOW ALONG THE SHORE IN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SUN AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS WILL STILL SEE SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 3-4 FT. LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AND THEN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS DO SEAS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MARINE SHORT TERM...MARINE AVIATION... MARINE

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.