Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 250731 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 331 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BRING AN ONSHORE WIND AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALL. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS A SHALLOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. LEADING EDGE OF THE COOL/MOIST AIR MASS HAS MADE IT TO NEW HAMPSHIRE AS EVIDENCED BY A LOW CLOUD DECK. WIND FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWARD TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ACROSS MAINE AND EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE 60S AND LOW 70S WILL BE THE MAX. TO THE WEST OF THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES... TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AS THIS AREA WILL NOT BE IMPACTED BY THE COOL MARITIME AIR AS MUCH. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/... WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS TROUBLE CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS... BUT IT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WARM/MOIST AIR MASS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE INSTABILITY... NOTED BY 1000 TO 2000 CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE THE RESULT SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT THIS SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST. WINDS ALOFT COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO TO FORM BUT THIS THREAT SEEMS FAIRLY LOW AT THE MOMENT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ANY REMAINING SHOWERS/TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AIRMASS WILL BE A BIT UNSTABLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT TO SEE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS A BIT COOLER AND A BIT MORE STABLE DURING THE DAY. TUESDAY...AS WARMER AIR TRIES TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL WILL DROP SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL MAINE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS NOW ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT LATE IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM...IFR CLOUD DECK SHOULD ERODE THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO AT LEAST A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER... LOW CLOUDS SEEM LIKELY TO RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS. LONG TERM...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MORNING FOG THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...EASTERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWARD TO THE EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THURSDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES. VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED IN AREAS OF MAINE FOG THROUGH THURSDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...KIMBLE SHORT TERM...KIMBLE LONG TERM...JENSENIUS

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