Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 220733 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 333 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING FAIR BUT BREEZY WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING CLOSE TO OUR AREA BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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SCT WAA SHRA ARE TRAVERSING THE REGION THIS MORNING PER LATEST RADAR. HOWEVER...DRY AIR REMAINS AT THE SFC...AND SHRA ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE GROUND. WILL KEEP MEASURABLE POP CONFINED TO THE MTNS FOR THE MORNING HOURS ATTM. LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD FNT TOWARDS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE SPC WRF AND HRRR...HAVE SHRA ARRIVING ACROSS WRN ZONES BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z. FOR WRN NH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED CAPE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED SCHC TSTMS FOR THESE AREAS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z. ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP COASTAL ME A LITTLE COOLER...WHILE INTERIOR NH SHOULD WARM NICELY INTO THE 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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GUIDANCE TRACK SHRA THRU FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT...WITH THE MAJORITY OF PCPN COMING TO AN END JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS INLAND OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WLY WINDS KICK IN. BEYOND THAT TIME MOIST NW FLOW WILL BEGIN A FAIRLY LONG DURATION UPSLOPE PCPN EVENT FOR THE MTNS. GRADUALLY COOLING COLUMN WILL BRING A TRANSITION FROM RA TO SN WITH TIME. HEADING INTO WED UPPER TROF WILL HANG BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP SFC LOW PRES LINGERING NEARBY. COULD SEE SHRA REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF WRN ME DURING THE DAY. AS UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES AND CAA BEGINS IN EARNEST...WIND GUSTS WILL START TO INCREASE INTO WED EVENING.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AFTER A NICE RUN OF WARM CLEAR DAYS AND ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW... A CUT OFF LOW AND BLOCKING PATTERN REAPPEARS IN THE EXTENDED RETURNING US TO OUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED APRIL. THE JET FIRST DIVES SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY... PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. AFTER WEDNESDAY`S FRONT PULLS OUT OF THE REGION... WE ARE LEFT UNDER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH... AFTER DAY BREAK THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 50KTS OCCUR AT 5K FT JUST BEHIND THE FRONT... WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATING GOOD MIXING... A FEW GUSTS TO 45KTS ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPING REGIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY BRINGS A WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN AS THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES RAPIDLY AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHAT WAS A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG WEDNESDAY`S FRONT STALLS OUT SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO CUT IT OFF. A LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS WELL AS THE VARIOUS HEMISPHERIC MODELS SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LOW STALLING... BUT LESS CONSENSUS OVER THE LOCATION OF THIS LOW OR THE ASSOCIATED OMEGA BLOCK FORMING THROUGH THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS LEAVES OUR AREA IN THE COL BETWEEN THE STALLED LOW TO OUR EAST OVER NEWFOUNDLAND AND ANOTHER LOW TRYING TO PROGRESS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FLOW TO SHIFT ONSHORE LATE FRIDAY... KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND ALLOWING FOR FOG TO FORM FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS NEXT LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND... BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN. WITH TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE A BROAD BRUSH CHANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME... ALTHOUGH HIGHEST POPS REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN WITH A HIGH BUILDING IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY. HOWEVER... WITH THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING A HUGE SPREAD AND A BLOCK DEVELOPING... HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY PROGRESSION IN THE PATTERN AND SUSPECT THE INFLUENCE OF THE CUT OFF OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WILL LINGER INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE... TRENDING TOWARDS THE SEASONAL NORMS IN BOTH TEMPS AND POP.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE BETTER PART OF TODAY. FNT CROSSING THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL SPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE AREA FROM W TO E. EXPECT SHRA TO GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR OR VFR IN NATURE. OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN COASTAL FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE. LONG TERM... GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AT ALL LOCATIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE COASTAL SITE REDUCED TO IFR IN FOG. MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY AS THE RAIN APPROACHES.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SUSTAINED SLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BUILT SEAS TO 4 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS...SO IT WON/T TAKE MUCH MORE TO SEE 5-7 FT LATER TODAY. LONG TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL GUST TO 35 TO 40 KT AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ANZ150>154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...CURTIS/LEGRO NEAR TERM...LEGRO SHORT TERM...LEGRO LONG TERM...CURTIS AVIATION...CURTIS/LEGRO MARINE...CURTIS/LEGRO

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