Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 251204 AAB AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 704 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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.UPDATE... CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WHICH CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN FORECAST... LIKELY DUE TO MODELS NOT HANDLING RH (CLOUD COVER) WELL AND OVERFORECASTING OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. ALSO INCREASED TODAY`S MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST REASON MENTIONED. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
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&& .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
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A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT PROMPTING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SHORTLY. MOISTURE STREAMING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FEEDING A BAND OF CONVECTION OFFSHORE. CIRRUS DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS IS NOW COVERING MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. THESE CLOUDS HAVE NOT INHIBITED RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN A FEW SITES. EXPECTING A PARTLY SUNNY DAY TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY SKIRTS THE AREA. A STRONG JET STREAK ON THE ORDER OF 190 KTS REMAINS OVERHEAD SO CIRRUS WILL REMAIN. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. WSW WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE UNTIL NEARLY DAYBREAK WHEN JUST A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY REACH THE SHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE THANKSGIVING STORM. WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDINESS HOWEVER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TOWARDS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE HEADS UP THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY 00Z THURSDAY. AFTER THAT ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER AND DEEPER THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. GENERAL TREND PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS HAS SHOWN THE ECMWF DRIFTING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY COLDER...QUICKER AND WITH LESS QPF. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY INITIALLY BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN OR A MIX IN COASTAL AREAS...VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AT LOWER TO MID LEVELS WILL QUICKLY COOL AND EXPECT ANY MIXED PRECIP AT THE ONSET TO GO OVER TO SNOW. THIS SHOULD PUSH INTO SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT TAKES TO SATURATED THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. BIG QUESTION THEN BECOMES QPF AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. ECMWF SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARD LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE GFS BUT SOME DIFFERENCES PERSIST. THIS DIFFERENCE PROBABLY DUE TO SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE SUGGESTION OF SOME WEAK BANDING SETTING UP ALONG THE COAST...WHICH THE GFS IS HINTING AT BUT FURTHER EAST AND WEAKER. WILL TRY TO FIND A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO FOR NOW. THIS WOULD GIVE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL. WITH WATCHES UP AND CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY...SEE NO REASON TO RUSH WARNINGS. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE A LOOK AT THE NEXT MODEL RUNS AND REFINE THE WARNING AREA FROM THERE. LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT STEADIER HEAVIER PRECIP TO SHIFT EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT LEAVING JUST OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IN IT`S WAKE. LOWS TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY KEEPING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH. WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL SEE TEMPS RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... TROUGHING REMAINS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT KEPT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND OFF THE COAST. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE CLOUD COVER IS SCOURED OUT...AND FOR NOW HAVE KEPT AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 20S. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS SO FAR THIS YEAR...WITH MANY AREAS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND TEENS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. COLD AIR REMAINS DAMMED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME MODERATION SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IT WILL STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS HOWEVER...BUT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY AND DROPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN REMAINS FICKLE WITH A SYSTEM AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND EVERY 1-2 DAYS. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...PLENTY OF CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM STORMS MOVING ALONG A FRONT CURRENTLY OFFSHORE HAS MADE IT TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. UNDER THIS DENSE FOG HAS FORMED IN A FEW SPOTS AND THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AREN`T INHIBITING THE RADIATION MUCH IF ANY. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. SSW HAVE WEAKENED FINALLY BUT WILL INCREASE AFTER MIXING RESUMES MID MORNING WITH WINDS MORE WSW. OTHERWISE VFR. LONG TERM...PERIOD OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEGINNING MIDDAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COASTAL STORM DROPS HEAVY SNOW AND PERHAPS INITIALLY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE STORM WITH CONDITIONS LIFR FOR A STRETCH BETWEEN 20Z WEDNESDAY AND 12Z THURSDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...ALL MARINE ZONES NOW UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...GALES WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAYS FOR WINDS AND SEAS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028. NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ001>010-013-014. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ HANES/SINSABAUGH

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