Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 192319 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 719 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into the region tonight and Monday. Warmer and dry weather can be expected Monday, with temperatures trying to get above 40 for the first time in a while in many places. Warmer air moves in for Tuesday with highs a little warmer than Monday. A cold front then moves through late Tuesday and temperatures return to well below normal readings once again for Wednesday and Thursday under a large ridge of high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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715 PM Update...Mostly clear skies are expected to continue overnight as low pressure departs well to the east. Some valley fog may form in portions of the CT River valley very late tonight. Otherwise, a chilly but fair night on tap. Previously... The ocean storm remains well out to sea moving east. Clouds have cleared the area this afternoon as high pressure has been building into the area and will continue through tonight. With this high pressure system over the area, clear skies and light winds can be expected. Radiational cooling can be expected once again but not as cold as the last few nights.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will be centered over northern New England Monday producing sunny skies and light winds. During the afternoon some high clouds well ahead of a weak trof will begin to spread from west to east. Temps will be mild. After using a blend of guidance consensus is for temps to range from the upper 30s in the mountains to lower to mid 40s elsewhere. Mon night a very weak moisture starved upper short wave moves across the area spreading clouds. Due to very dry low levels this system will move through dry with no precipitation except maybe a few snow showers in the mountains. Due to clouds and waa ahead of the upper trof, min temps will be rather mild with lows in the 20s to near 30. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Overall, no significant changes to extended forecast thinking in the last few days, as the deep and persistent 500 mb over ern NOAM begins to recede poleward as down stream blocking shifts east out of the Atlantic into Europe, and allowing less amplified flow over the nrn CONUS by next weekend. Still, we`ll have one more surge of arctic air around mid-late week. Tuesday should see mainly partly cloudy skies and temps running near to slightly above normal as weak ridging aloft makes a brief appearance before a trough approaches from the west and pushes a cold front through, late afternoon in the north and during the evening elsewhere. Highs will surge into the 40s, and may touch 50 in warmer southern areas. Any showers associated with the front will be limited to the mountains, and higher elevations could see a couple inches of accumulating snow in the upslope Tue night into early Wed. Temps will drop off into the teens to low 20s Tue night. Highs on Wed will be in the teens N, to the 20s S, with a gusty NW wind, and wind chills in -10 to +15 range during the day. Should see winds slacken some Wed night with lows dropping from about zero to 10 above. The surge of coldest air will be brief and temps will rebound a bit on Thursday, but still be about 10F below normal, with generally sunny skies. Highs will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Friday should see warmer temps, in the 30s and low 40s, with sunshine fading behind high late. Low confidence in the weekend forecast, as models not showing agreement, or run to run consistency, other than to show that there will be some form of trough moving thru over the weekend, so chc pops for precip seem prudent for now. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Short Term...VFR conditions through Mon night expect perhaps KLEB where some valley fog may occur between 10z and 13z Monday. Long Term...Mainly VFR Tue-Fri. KHIE could see some flight restrictions in SHSN Tue night. All terminals will likely see NW wind gusts to 25 kt on Wed.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term...Winds and seas will continue to increase tonight as low pressure passes east of the Gulf of ME. Gale force wind gusts are likely on the outer waters...with SCA conditions expected in the bays. Winds and seas diminish Mon as high pressure moves over the waters. Light winds will continue through Mon night. Long Term...SCA will likely be need Tue night into Wed night, with a chance for a period of gales during the day Wed. Should see a break Thu-Fri, but may need SCA again by Fri night.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ151-153. Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ150-152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE...Ekster

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