Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KGYX 241047
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
647 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
Low pressure surface and aloft will drift northward across the
region today and early tonight. This system will bring unsettled
weather with clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms. This
weakening system will exit into the Canadian Maritimes tonight.
Warmer weather will return on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. The
cold front will bring clouds and a few showers and thunderstorms
to the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. A ridge of high
pressure will build over the area Wednesday night and will hold
over the region on Thursday as a warm front approaches from the
west. The warm front will stall over the region Thursday night and
Friday and will finally push east of the region on Saturday. A
cold front will cross the region Saturday night followed by high
pressure and dry air to round out the holiday weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --644 AM...for this ESTF update I adjusted near term grids to
reflect radar trends and to ingest the latest mesonet.
At 06z...low pressure surface and aloft was centered to the south
of Long Island. GOES infrared imagery showed clouds with this system
continued to spread northward into the forecast area. For today...the
system will continue to drift north with lowering ceilings and
showers and a few thunderstorms working into the area as upper low
center moves nearly overhead. Highs will range from lower and mid
70s along the international border and Connecticut valley to lower
60s along the coast in strengthening onshore flow.
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.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Convection will wind down from southwest to northeast this evening
with partial clearing and areas of fog developing as the system
exits into the maritimes. Lows tonight will range from the mid 40s
to lower 50s. On Wednesday...much warmer ahead of an approaching
shortwave impulse and associated cold front with highs ranging
from the mid 70s to lower 80s...except for some 60s along the
Maine mid coast in onshore flow. A few showers and thunderstorms
will develop by afternoon across northern and mountain sections
with a few cells possibly reaching southern and coastal sections
late in the day.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Any showers will dissipate or move out of the region early
Wednesday evening in the wake of a cold front. A dry Wednesday
night and Thursday is expected along with warm temperatures.
A warm front approaches from the southwest on Friday with an
attendant chance of showers and thunderstorms. This warm front
looks to move through the region in time for Saturday which should
allow for very warm temperatures away from the coast.
A short wave trough and attendant cold front will quickly
approach from the west Saturday afternoon and should spark another
round of showers and thunderstorms.
Strong Canadian high pressure will then move in from the north in
the wake of the front and clear us out for later Saturday night
and Sunday. A cooler and drier airmass will settle in place on
Sunday. At this time it looks like the high will remain entrenched
over the area to round out the holiday weekend with nice weather
Thereafter, warming temperatures should once again occur as deep
layer ridging builds.
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through Wednesday/...MVFR/IFR ceilings developing
this morning along with a few -shra and -tsra. conditions
gradually improve to vfr tonight with areas of mvfr and lcl ifr
redeveloping late in stratus and fog. bcmg vfr Wed am with sct
mvfr dvlpg during the pm in -shra/-tsra.
Long Term...VFR conditions are expected Wed night and Thu except
for some late night or early morning valley fog. Lower conditions
are possible on Friday as warm front and associated lower clouds
and showers move into the area. Mainly VFR is expected on Saturday
except for locally lower conditions in showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon hours.
Short Term /through Wednesday/...outside of ocnl vsby restrictions
in precipitation and fog...quiet on the waters as seas and winds
should remain below small craft threshold.
Long Term...At this time it appears as though no flags will be
needed Wed night through this weekend.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms and moderate to high relative
humidity values will keep fire danger low both today and Wednesday.