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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 152350 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
750 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WING SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
PRECIPITATION HAS NOW EXITED MOST OF NH AND IS MOVIGN THROUGH
CENTRAL MAINE. MOVEMENT HAS BEEN FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND DRIER
AIR SHOULD FILTER IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...ALLOWING DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP. WIDESPREAD
FOG IS LIKELY WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS MOVING OUT. GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL SET UP BEFORE DAYBREAK...HELPING TO PUSH MOISTURE
EAST. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE ADJUSTED FOR THESE
REASONS.

$$

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE AS THE WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES.
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT INTO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EAST. THERE IS THUNDER OCCURRING IN
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WHILE I CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION I HAVE OPTED TO NOT PUT THUNDER IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.
ANY THUNDER WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE. THE FRONT MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH
THE RAIN DEPARTING THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLEARING SKIES IN THE MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER THERE. IT WILL BE
QUITE WARM SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY WITH A GUSTY DOWNSLOPE
WIND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR TO NEAR 80 IN SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN SOUTHERN AREAS BUT IN THE MOUNTAINS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THAT AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL A DRY PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

A DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT IN
THE MTNS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY SOME MOISTURE WILL TRY AND SPREAD INTO NEW
ENGLAND FROM A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SO THERE IS
THE CHC OF SHWRS DEVELOPING BUT ANY SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT. DUE TO
THE CLOUDS AND A DEVELOPING SSELY SFC FLOW, TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOME WAA FROM THE W
AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...THIS DUE TO SFC/UPR
RIDGING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW
WEAK SRN SYSTEMS TOO FAR TO OUR SOUTH.

USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET TEMP GUID FOR 4TH/5TH PDS AND A BLEND OF
GMOS AND ADJUSTED MEX TEMPS FOR DAYS 4-7.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND SOME FOG TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS BECOME VFR BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY HOWEVER WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE WEST AND BECOME GUSTY TO 25 KTS. VFR THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
GENERALLY VFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD ABATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SEAS SUBSIDE.

LONG TERM...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAY APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR A BRIEF TIME TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH RH LESS THAN 25 PERCENT AND WINDS OF 15-25 MPH OVER SOUTHERN
NH. IN REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER WETTING RAINS TONIGHT WOULD
PRECLUDE INCREASED FIRE WEATHER ACTIVITY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES