Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 191037 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 637 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Even warmer temperatures arrive in the area today on a southwesterly wind. A cold front moves through from the northwest tonight, but temperatures behind it on Friday will only be a few degrees cooler than today, still above normal. As high pressure slides east this weekend a large ridge of high pressure will build over the East Coast while a deep trough develops in the center of the country. This will keep warm, humid conditions in New England into the first half of next week with an increasing chance of rain toward the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Update... Have updated the current weather conditions across the forecast area with patchy fog occurring in both Maine and New Hampshire. There are a few patches of dense fog as well including IZG and BML. Modified current temperatures and dew point values per current observations. Winds expected to be relatively light for a few more hours before mixing improves and wind fields increase from the southwest. Prev Disc... A weak front will approach from the west today. Ahead of this moisture starved system, a southwest gradient will increase. Mixing values will deepen as well this afternoon. Bufkit and mesoscale models suggest that many areas will receive winds in the 10 to 20 mph range with gusts as high as 30 mph. A strong gradient will continue across the higher terrain as well. Mainly sunny skies will yield afternoon and H8 temperatures approaching at or above +10C will allow for highs in the lower to mid 70s across most of our forecast area this afternoon. This is a good 10 to 15 degrees above normal highs for this time of the year. The record high temperature for the Forest City is 81 degrees set back in 1963. We will fall short of that record.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... A few clouds may cross the region tonight with the passage of the moisture starved front during the early evening hours. A shower is possible across the far north as upslope winds kick in initially from the west, then northwest. Temperatures will settle down into the 40s in most areas tonight despite some gradient winds and a few clouds. This is well below maxi-min records for the region. A sharpening upper level trough in the Canadian Maritimes will allow for cold air advection to continue, mainly over eastern areas on Friday. Very dry downslope conditions expected over southern areas (see fire weather section for elevated conditions both today and Friday below). It will be slightly cooler on Friday. However, readings will still be well above normal with highs well into the 60s in many southern areas, with chillier 50s in the far north. Some CU may hold in the mountains and foothills. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface high pressure slides east into the Appalachians and the Mid Atlantic states Friday night into Saturday morning. This will bring good radiational cooling conditions overnight, but especially to southwestern areas closer to the center of the high. How low temperatures go will be dependent on low level moisture which will be driest in the north. Expect lows in the valleys to reach the low to mid 30s. Warm advection begins again in earnest on Saturday with temperatures warming into the 60s in the north and mid 70s in the south. While surface high pressure shifts east into the Atlantic, an upper level ridge of high pressure will grow in amplitude over the East Coast in response to deep troughing over the center of the country. This will keep a warm and increasingly humid flow of air into New England, with temperatures generally in the 70s during the day and dewpoints rising into the 50s, buoying nighttime lows by the beginning of next week. Eventually the upper trough over the center of the country will make its way eastward, and it seems likely that a more organized pressure system will develop and move north northeast along the eastern side of the trough generally in the direction of New England. This will provide a good chance of rain sometime in the Tuesday/Wednesday time period before the cooler air in the trough arrives. Models still showing a wide range of solutions on when and how this trough will move through, with the potential existing for the trough to take the rest of the week to make its way through. Thus rain chances will continue through the week until a clearer picture can emerge from the mess. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term...Mainly VFR conditions this morning after isolated inland valley fog. Winds will be rather gusty from the southwest. Mainly VFR conditions continuing tonight into Friday. Long Term...VFR conditions expected through Saturday. Could see morning fog in the valleys each morning beginning on Sunday. && .MARINE... Short Term...Have raised SCAs for this afternoon and tonight for all of the waters as a southwesterly gradient increases across the region and seas build. The SCAs will continue into Friday for the outer waters as winds shift to the west to northwest and remain rather gusty. This update was to add Casco Bay to the SCA. Long Term...High pressure builds east across southern New England on Saturday and into the Atlantic on Sunday. A broad southerly flow is expected to gradually increase in intensity early next week as a frontal system approaches from the west. && .FIRE WEATHER... A weak cold front will approach the region today. Winds will increase from the southwest out ahead of this system with most areas increasing to 15 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph. At the same time, relative humidity values will fall to 30 to 40 percent across New Hampshire and adjacent areas along the border in westernmost Maine. The combination of the gusty winds, low relative humidity values and our recent dry conditions will allow for elevated fire weather conditions today. Elevated fire weather potential is expected today over western portions of our forecast area. Will issue a special weather statement to bring attention to this threat. The front will cross the region tonight. Although the winds will not be quite as gusty tomorrow, dry northwest winds will allow for relative humidity values to be in the 30 to 35 percent range across much of western Maine and New Hampshire. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ151-153. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ150-152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Cannon SHORT TERM...Cannon LONG TERM...Kimble

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