Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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160 FXUS61 KGYX 211356 AAB AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 956 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cool high pressure over the area will allow early morning temperatures to be in the lower to mid 30s across the mountains and most central areas. High pressure slides east today...but gives us plenty of sun through the first half of the day before clouds increase from the west. Low pressure will move in from the west on Monday bringing cool weather and some rain. Another low pressure system may affect the region the mid to latter part of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Update...A few minor adjustments to the forecast to account for latest observational trends. Previous Discussion: High pressure allowing clear skies and calm winds over the region early this morning will allow for a cold frosty start in the mountains and some central areas so the freeze warnings and frost advisories will remain in place. The ridge of high pressure will move east to off the coast by later in the day allowing a return light southerly flow to develop in the afternoon. Temperatures will be rather quick to recover this morning due to the sunny skies and reach into the 60s by this afternoon. In the afternoon some increasing clouds expected ahead of the next system. Have also issued a Beach statement for the risk to paddlers due to the continued cold water temperatures.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... High pressure moves off the coast tonight allowing a return south flow to increase ahead of an approaching short wave with some overunning waa. This short wave will spread showers across the region very late tonight and especially Monday. Temperatures will be milder tonight due to the cloud cover and developing onshore flow but much cooler high temps expected for Monday due to showers combined with the cool onshore south to southeast flow. Highs on Monday will only be in the lower 50s. The previous forecast had likely POPS for Monday which appeared reasonable as widespread showers expected with this short wave. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low pressure will be departing to our south Monday night with weak high pressure building in from the west in its wake. Interior locations will see showers end first, but rain and drizzle may linger on the coastal plain much of the night. Tuesday looks to be a better day, with the region in between systems. So we expect a good deal of sunshine and warmer temperatures than Monday. The next low pressure system will approach from the south Tuesday night and affect the region on Wednesday. At this time it looks mainly like southern portions of our forecast will see the most rain as the storm moves to our southeast. However, plenty of model spread in terms of rainfall coverage and amounts. Thursday and Friday remain unsettled with big upper low traversing the region. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...VFR conditions through tonight. Conditions become MVFR to IFR Monday in a developing moist unstable south to southwest flow. Long Term...IFR conditions will improve to VFR from west to east by late Monday night. Tuesday will feature VFR conditions before IFR settles in again with rain Wed and Thu. && .MARINE... Short Term...Light winds and seas to become south to southeast later today and continue through Monday. Winds speeds should remain below SCA criteria through Monday. Long Term...SCA conditions possible Wed and Thu in association with low pressure. && .FIRE WEATHER... Canadian high pressure over the region will continue dry conditions with light winds today. The ridge of high pressure moves east off the the coast tonight. A moist unstable southwest flow develops monday with periods of rain. A return to dry conditions for Tuesday into Wednesday under a weak ridge of high pressure. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The highest astronomical tides of the year will be present late this week and this weekend. With a tide of 12 ft in Portland it will not take much to cause minor flooding on the NH and ME coast. With the possibility of weak low pressure affecting the region Wed-Fri we will have to watch for positive departures. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ023>028. NH...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ014. MARINE...None.
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