Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 300953 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 453 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A brief lull in the precipitation is expected THIS morning before another low spreads rain back into the region this afternoon and tonight, with a changeover to snow expected along the international border and over the higher terrain tonight. Somewhat cooler drier air will arrive on Thursday and Friday with temperatures cooling as we move into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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450 AM...Based on several obs at or near 1/4SM in srn NH, have issued Dense Fog Adv through the AM commute from Strafford- Belknap-S GRafton and points south. Sfc Ridge building in has allowed near calm conditions and some cooling despite the clouds. Previously...Weak sfc ridging will nose down from the north this morning as ridging aloft builds in response to deepening trough to our west. We could see a few breaks of sun this morning in the south, but overall it will be mainly cloudy. Precip begins to move in from SW-NE from midday through the afternoon, and will start as rain pretty much everywhere, and should begin by sunset in all but the far NE. Highs today will rebound back into the upper 30s N to the mid-upper 40s on the coastal plain.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... For tonight rain will have moved in everywhere, and could see periods of moderate to heavy precip in the evening as the low-mid level deepens and sets up decent WAA, and good frontogenetical forcing. The rain will begin wind down late tonight into early Thursday from SW-NE. Will see cold air start to filter in from the north and this will change rain to snow along the int`l border and southward toward Jackman, as well as over the higher terrain of the Western ME mountains and the Whites in NH. May need advisories for this areas with outside chance of reaching warning criteria by the tine it winds down Thursday. Lows tonight will generally be above freezing, from the low 30s in central Somerset to around 40 near the coast. On Thursday, the synoptic precip winds down and we move into a threat of upslope showers in the afternoon, although air behind this system not significantly cooler, cyclonic flow aloft will enhance the upslope. Look fro some clearing outside of the mountains in the afternoon and downslope warming on the coastal plain allowing temps to rise to 50-55. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Friday the last of a series of storms will move out to the east allowing for a slightly quieter weather pattern through the middle of next week. A long wave trough will move in over the eastern 2/3 of the country and slowly move east brining the coldest air in by Sunday night. The cyclonic flow aloft will bring upslope showers to northern New Hampshire. With Froude number remaining below 1 through out the time period all these showers will likely remain on the northwestern periphery of the mountains. Have increased QPF, PoP and Snow Amounts in those areas as models tend to under estimate the amount of snow that can result from these longer duration upslope events. Expect around 1-2" per day for Pittsburg NH area much of which may fall below the KGYX radar beam. Further to the south through the coastal plain the same persistent northwesterly to westerly flow pattern will result in down range clearing. By Saturday afternoon clear skies will prevail along the coast which will help to drop temperatures into the mid 20`s all the way to the coast for Saturday night into Sunday. Have decreased temperatures slightly in southern zones to help account for the clear skies which tends to drop temps further than expected. High pressure builds into the region for the start of next week as the core of the 500mb trough aloft shifts into our region. Here we once again see an opportunity for temperatures to plummet, especially in isolated valleys. Have dropped temps below guidance again for Monday night. Through the middle of next week the confidence decreases drastically. A long wave ridge will develop and build into the eastern CONUS with a low developing along it. Fairly significant spread in the timing with precipitation moving in as early as Tuesday night with a short wave ahead of the main trough in teh 00Z ECMWF... or holding dry until Thursday when a larger low can develop and move up the coast. Have leaned towards a drier Tuesday as there has been little consistency withe the weak system developing for Tuesday. Later in the week seems more likely to be the system to watch as a lots of moisture in southern flow will combine with very warm air aloft. After a weekend and early week in below freezing temps this could set up for a bit of a mess in terms of precipitation type, so will have to keep an eye on this as the long wave pattern progresses next week. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term...Dense fog settling in over srn NH and the CT vly, but more MVFR-IFR, if any at all elsewhere. Low cigs should hold through the morning, so look for mainly MVFR conds returning to IFR or lower in Rain this afternoon and continuing tonight. Improvement to VFR expected by Thu afternoon. Long Term... MVFR in SHSN for KHIE through the weekend, elsewhere VFR will remain. No major storms through next week for the rest of the area. && .MARINE... Short Term...ALthough winds have diminished, seas will take a little longer to subside this morning. Should see a short SCA period this afternoon, but will likely need SCA tonight into Thursday, with possible gales for a short period late tonight, especially over the eastern waters. Long Term... Friday will see winds remain near SCA criteria through the morning hours before slowly decreasing. Relatively calm conditions over the waters for the weekend as a high crests overhead. Another system may move through by mid next week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. NH...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NHZ005- 007>015. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ151-153. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ150-152-154.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Cempa NEAR TERM...Cempa SHORT TERM...Cempa LONG TERM...Curtis AVIATION...Cempa/Curtis MARINE...Cempa/Curtis

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