Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 152350 AAB AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 750 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013 .SYNOPSIS... AN OCCLUDED FRONT WING SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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PRECIPITATION HAS NOW EXITED MOST OF NH AND IS MOVIGN THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. MOVEMENT HAS BEEN FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP. WIDESPREAD FOG IS LIKELY WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS MOVING OUT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL SET UP BEFORE DAYBREAK...HELPING TO PUSH MOISTURE EAST. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE ADJUSTED FOR THESE REASONS. $$ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE AS THE WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES. LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT INTO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EAST. THERE IS THUNDER OCCURRING IN EASTERN NEW YORK AND WHILE I CAN`T RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION I HAVE OPTED TO NOT PUT THUNDER IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. ANY THUNDER WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. THE FRONT MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE RAIN DEPARTING THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... CLEARING SKIES IN THE MORNING FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER THERE. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY WITH A GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WIND. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR TO NEAR 80 IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN SOUTHERN AREAS BUT IN THE MOUNTAINS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THAT AREA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... OVERALL A DRY PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. A DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT IN THE MTNS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY SOME MOISTURE WILL TRY AND SPREAD INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SO THERE IS THE CHC OF SHWRS DEVELOPING BUT ANY SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND A DEVELOPING SSELY SFC FLOW, TEMPS WILL BE COOLER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOME WAA FROM THE W AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...THIS DUE TO SFC/UPR RIDGING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW WEAK SRN SYSTEMS TOO FAR TO OUR SOUTH. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET TEMP GUID FOR 4TH/5TH PDS AND A BLEND OF GMOS AND ADJUSTED MEX TEMPS FOR DAYS 4-7. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...EXPECT MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND SOME FOG TONIGHT. CONDITIONS BECOME VFR BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY HOWEVER WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND BECOME GUSTY TO 25 KTS. VFR THURSDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM... GENERALLY VFR CONDS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD ABATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SEAS SUBSIDE. LONG TERM... NO FLAGS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. && .FIRE WEATHER... MAY APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR A BRIEF TIME TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH RH LESS THAN 25 PERCENT AND WINDS OF 15-25 MPH OVER SOUTHERN NH. IN REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER WETTING RAINS TONIGHT WOULD PRECLUDE INCREASED FIRE WEATHER ACTIVITY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ UPDATE...HANES

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