National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 122314
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
714 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE
TONIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE CURRENT ROUND OF SHOWERS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. THE HIGH WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY...BUT
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND COULD SPREAD SOME SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
710 PM...ALL IN ALL THE TREND FOR THE EVENING WILL BE DIMINISHING
SHOWERS OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH WEAKENING MID TO UPPER LVL TROUGHING
WILL STILL PROVIDE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT...AND WILL BE
LIMITED TO NRN NH AND W CENTRAL ME. THE CLEARING THAT OCCURRED
OVER SRN NH WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EWD AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...AND
SHOULD EVEN REACH FAR ERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK. CLEARING AND LOW LVL
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LKLY TO LEAD TO SOME FOG IN THE VLYS AND
SHELTERED SPOTS.

PREVIOUSLY...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL GRADUALLY BRING AN END
TO THE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED LATER ON. OTHERWISE...SOME
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR
OUT AND WINDS GO CALM. THE GUSTY WINDS OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIE
DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
WITH HEATING ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
AIR WELL ALOFT WILL BE THE COLDEST. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THEN SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT WE WILL BE MISSED BY THE BULK OF
THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NEW 00Z ECMWF IS NOW IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST GFS WITH THIS SCENARIO. HAVE THEREFORE BACKED DOWN
ON POPS AND QPF FOR LATE THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE AT DECENT RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERNMOST TIER OF ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT EVEN THIS MAY NOT
HAPPEN AT THIS POINT. DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH
AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR. WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE NORTH AND
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH. SATURDAY LOOKING LIKE A REAL GEM
WITH ABUNDANT SUN...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPS RANGING THROUGH
THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
RETURN FLOW BRINGING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER
ANOTHER CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT WILL SEE TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
MAY PRODUCE AN AFTERNOON SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT
CLOUDIER.

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY BRINGING WARM AND
MUGGY AIR TO THE REGION. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
COAST WHERE A SEA BREEZE WILL HOLD READINGS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ON IT. LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN ZONES BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE 1ST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE
PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM...710 PM...ANY LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVE
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN AT KLEB/KHIE/KCON. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHERNMOST NH WHERE
SOME MVFR IN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM...SCA NOW ONLY IN EFFECT FOR THE OPEN WATERS...AND THIS
WILL LKLY BE BORDERLINE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...THEN WATERS
REMAIN QUIET INTO FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CEMPA
MARINE...CEMPA