Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 190304 AAC AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 1104 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the west tonight and crest over the region Friday. High pressure will shift offshore Friday night and will hold off the coast through Saturday night. A cold front will approach from the west late Sunday and will slowly cross the region Sunday night and Monday. High pressure will build in from the west Monday night through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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11 pm Update... Showers have ended and temperatures are dropping quickly. Dew points are also creeping down. Water vapor imagery shows dry air continuing to push into the region. Only minor changes to the forecast for this update. 6 pm Update... Only minor changes to the forecast which is in good shape. CUmulus clouds are decreasing quickly this evening in a drier airmass. Have lowered cloud cover in most areas. An isolated shower is still possible over southern NH and offshore along the southward moving cool front for another hour or so. Calm winds and building high pressure tonight will allow for good radiational cooling and dropped temperatures slightly across the north in line with latest HRRR and other short term models. Previous discussion... High pressure builds into the region tonight allowing skies to becoming clear by early evening. Winds will become calm as the high settles over the region. With clear skies and calm winds areas of valley fog can be expected to develop toward and after midnight. Temperatures will be comfortable ranging from the mid 50s in the mountains to lower 60s elsewhere.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will continue to be centered over the area through Friday night. This will mean Friday will have a sunny day and clear night with near calm winds. Friday will be another warm day with temps reaching the upper 70s in the mountains to mid 80s elsewhere. Dewpoints will remain comfortable in the lower 60s. Friday afternoon seabreezes can be expected along the coast knocking down temperatures along the coastal areas. Stayed close to a blend of model guidance for temperatures. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High impact weather potential: Low, some localized heavy rain possible Sunday night into Monday. A slightly more amplified 500 mb pattern is in the forecast as the strong western Atlantic ridge breaks down somewhat, and this will allow fairly decent troughing to build equatorward and cross the region early next week. This will be followed by good ridging over the area through the end of next week. Saturday will actually be a fine and warm August day as surface ridge slowly shifts offshore. Look for mainly sunny skies, Tds in the mid 50s to around 60, so not too humid, and maxes will in the 80-85 range, with slightly warmer temps in the upper 80s in interior southern NH. As the high shifts offshore Sat night and Sunday, humidity increases, as will clouds and the threat of showers. Still overall, Sunday looks good, with partly sunny skies and highs generally back into that 80-85 range, although it will be noticeably humid with TDs rising into the mid and upper 60s. There will be the chance for a scattered showers or thunderstorm, mainly over NH in the afternoon. As the 500 mb trough approaches from the west on Sunday night it starts to dig and begins to negatively tilt, which will slow progress of associated surface front as it crosses the CWA. This looks to be a farily dynamic wave, but given the time of year, hard to say how much convective scaling problems may play a roll in its development, but it looks like a fairly solid chunk of energy from when it crosses the gulf of AK. If this is the case, with good moisture inflow ahead of it, should see the potential for locally heavy rainfall again, and perhaps slow moving bands, Sunday night into Monday morning. The front crosses the CWA Monday, and some relatively cooler and drier air will move into the area mid-week, although temps will only drop to around normal, Once the ridging builds back in by the end of the week, it will begin to warm up again. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term...VFR through Friday night except for some IFR/LIFR conditions in areas of valley fog 05z-14z. Long Term...Possible extended flight restrictions Sunday night into Monday morning with heavy rain. Otherwise look for mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Short Term...No flags. Long Term...Expect sub-SCA conds on the waters Saturday through Tuesday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Hanes SHORT TERM...Marine LONG TERM...Cempa

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