Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 121022 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 622 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AROUND TUESDAY AS A FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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620 AM UPDATE...JUST MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS AND SKY CONDITIONS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MOST AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA HAVE CLEARED OUT THIS MORNING...HOWEVER BKN TO OVC CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPING CONDITIONS UNDER THE NORTHWEST FLOW. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE CT VALLEY IF THE STRATUS EVER BREAKS UP...BUT CURRENTLY LEB IS 58 OVER 45 AND HIE IS 55 OVER 45...SO UNLESS THEY CLEAR OUT AND RADIATE QUICKLY AN UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED TO TAKE OUT THE FOG. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY AS CAA WILL MIX WINDS DOWN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR WILL BOTTOM OUT AND SHUT DOWN THE WINDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP OFF TEMPERATURES IN A HURRY. CURRENTLY USING A BLEND OF MODELS...LOWS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE NORTH NO LOWER THAN 35...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED LOW LYING VALLEYS THAT COULD DROP A BIT LOWER AND PATCHY FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE...BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD FROST TO THE FORECAST AND WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT DECIDE IF A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY IN NORTHERN ZONES IF LATER GUIDANCE COMES IN COLDER. A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND IS LIKELY TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS...HOWEVER DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A FAST MOVING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND GENERALLY DRY. A FEW FAST MOVING S/WVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW TUE AND AGAIN WED. BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON CARVING OUT A LONG WAVE TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL MEAN MUCH COOLER TEMPS BY LATER NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING AS SFC CANADIAN HIGH PRES IS ALLOWED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND TEMPS AND POPS. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR SOME EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND CT VALLEY. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING IN THE VALLEYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECT FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN LEB AND HIE. LONG TERM... MAINLY VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG EACH NIGHT. A CHC OF SHWRS TUE MAY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...EXPECTING SOME GUSTY WINDS UNTIL ABOUT NOON...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. LONG TERM... CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS... KISTNER/MARINE

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