Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 231112 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 612 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN AREAS EARLY TODAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MAINLY RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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555 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO 1ST PERIOD TO REFLECT THE 10Z MESONET. PREV DISC... SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER HAS WARMED SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WAVE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ON NWS RADAR MOSAIC WAS ENTERING THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AS OF 07Z. THIS AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND EXIT THE COAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED IMPULSE THIS MORNING. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE GREATLY REDUCED...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE HAS BEEN DROPPED WITH THE 3 AM FORECAST PACKAGE. BEHIND THE IMPULSE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNNY BREAKS BY LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS WILL ACTUALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 50 DEGREE NUMBERS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT IMPULSE AND ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST VERTICAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT A FEW NORTHERN INTERIOR VALLEYS COULD SEE SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S. OCCASIONAL RAIN AND MILD ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PRESSES NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN DIMINISHING TO DRIZZLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A RATHER BREEZY AND BALMY DAY WITH HIGHS OF 50 TO 60 AVERAGING A FULL 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER MILD DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE A DRY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LONG TERM MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WEDNESDAY/ THURSDAY TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY BREAK... IF THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION WE EXPECT MAJOR INTERRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO GET TO THEIR DESTINATIONS EARLY IF POSSIBLE. POPS WERE INCREASED BUT NOT OVERLY SO TO MAKE ROOM FOR POSSIBLE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING. LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FALL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG WARM FRONT COMES ONSHORE. NORTH OF THE FRONT... FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR SNOW TO FALL. AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY NORTH... SO WILL THE WARMER AIR ALLOWING SNOW TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM... WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THIS WILL BE A TRAVEL HAZARD ONLY IN THAT IT WILL BE A STEADY... PERSISTENT RAINFALL ON A HEAVY TRAVEL DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN A BAND CENTERED NEAR THE COAST... WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM LONG ISLAND TO NEAR PORTLAND THURSDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE MIDCOAST AND THE NORTH. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD FALL JUST INLAND FROM NEAR FARMINGTON TO NEAR BANGOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE REAL COLD AIR DOESN`T ARRIVE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS ARCTIC AIR TO SETTLE IN FOR A FEW DAYS. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...AREAS OF MVFR TODAY IN CEILINGS. WIDESPREAD MVFR DEVELOPS MONDAY MORNING WITH WARM FRONTAL RAINS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VFR MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR TUESDAY WITH SCT MTN MVFR IN SHOWERS. LONG TERM...IFR TO LIFR IN SNOW OR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND THE GALE HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT THROUGHOUT UNTIL 18Z TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ ES

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