Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 250232 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1032 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SHALLOW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... UPDATE 2...WILL LOWER POPS AS SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS DYING QUICKLY. WILL ALSO ADD SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG. PREV DISC...MID LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY THINNING OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING SOME SURFACE HEATING TO FINALLY GET GOING. EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS DUE TO LOW FREEZING LEVELS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL TURN WINDS ONSHORE BRINGING OCEAN STRATUS INTO SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING OF OCEAN STRATUS ON SATURDAY ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING AND MAY HANG TOUGH FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN MID COAST AREAS. WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO WESTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS WITH MUCH OF MAINE REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ELSEWHERE HIGH WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S. RAIN MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE GETTING WET BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 500 MB RIDGING NOSES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THEN BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUE-THU...AT LEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A HOT AND HUMID SPELL...WITH PROBABLY THE HOTTEST WEATHER WE`VE SEEN THIS SUMMER. POSSIBLE COLD FRONT PASSES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THESE RIDGES TEND TO REMAIN STRONG...AND EURO IS MOVING TROPICAL SYSTEM OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY LATE NEXT WEEK. WE`LL START OFF THE LONG RANGE ON THE COOLER SIDE AS ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS IN THE OCCLUSION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER TO START TO DAY...AS WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF BEING REMNANT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...AND GIVEN MODE FORE CAST 850 MB JET...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY CERTAINLY COULD SEE SOME THUNDER AND PERHAPS SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT THE BIG QUESTION IS IT STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THE INVERSION PRODUCED BY THE MARINE LYR. MODELS SAY IT SHOULD MAKE INTO SRN NH AND THE CT VALLEY...AND MAYBE INTERIOR SW ME...WHERE HIGHS PUSH CLOSE TO 80 WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN. TO THE N AND OF EAST OF THIS IT`LL STAY CLOUDY AND COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 70...AND EVEN COOLER RIGHT ON THE SHORE. MONDAY TURNS OUT TO BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS PASSING SHORTWAVE N OF THE CWA TENDS TO SLOW WARM FRONT AND IT SITS JUST N OF THE CWA AND COULD SEE ROUND OF SHRA AND TSRA MON AFTERNOON. THE RIDGINGBBUILDSIN FROM THE WEST TUE-THU...WITH INCREASINGLYWARMER AIR /H85 TEMPS APPROACHING 20C/ EACH DAY. TUE AND WED LOOK MAINLY DRY WITH SOLID RIDGING, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY AIR MASS CONVECTION. HIGHS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN THE N TO LOW 90S INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME. THU COULD BE EVEN A FEW DEGREES HOTTER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 60S TO AROUND 70. INCREASING CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA BY THU AFT INTO FRI AS POSSIBLE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINE. BECOMING VFR ON SATURDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS...MAINLY IN MID COAST MAINE. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS SATURDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY START AT IFR OR LOWER IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG/RA...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT INLAND IN THE MORNING...AND NEAR THE COAST LATER IN THE DAY. VFR EXPECTED MON -WED. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS. LONG TERM...COULD SEE SEAS SURGE TO AROUND 5 FT IN SWELL LATE SUN INTO MON...OTHERWISE THE WATERS REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU WED. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ HAWLEY

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