Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 251859 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 259 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SPRAWLING BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST OF THE U.S. CONTINUES TO BRING W/SW WINDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS HELPED TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND 80S DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS WERE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS NH AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NE AND MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT AS LI VALUES PEAK. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE (50S AND 60S) AND WE MAY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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WE WILL SEE A SIMILAR SCENARIO TOMORROW TEMPERATURE WISE AS TODAY WITH EVEN LESS CLOUD COVER AS WE WILL BE SANS WARM FRONT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN A LITTLE MORE TOMORROW AS WELL TRANSLATING INTO WARMER READINGS AT THE SURFACE. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NW WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE THIS RH VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE 30%. CLOUD COVER INCREASES ONCE AGAIN FROM SW TO NE AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN CANADA LIFTS A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION. WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS DEVELOP IN NH AND MAINE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN A NUTSHELL...IT LOOKS LIKE A SUMMERY PATTERN WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES ON THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL DETERMINE HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GETS. THE LATEST ECMWF MOVES IT THROUGH PRETTY QUICKLY...AND IF THAT SOLUTION VERIFIES...COVERAGE MAY BE MINIMAL. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH SWLY RETURN FLOW SETTING US UP FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY HOT DAY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SAT AND SUN WITH THE ATTENDANT THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND CAPITAL DISTRICT MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS. GUSTY SSW WINDS IN THE 20 KT RANGE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY. LONG TERM...WED - THU...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. VFR EXPECTED FRI AND SAT.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...SWELL OF 6-7 FT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH WINDS GUSTING GENERALLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. THIS FALLS SHORT OF SCA CRITERIA. LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WED AND THURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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MINIMUM RH VALUES INCREASE TO 40-50 PERCENT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WILL STILL SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO NEAR 20-25 MPH ON TUESDAY. SO ALTHOUGH BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...FIRE DANGER MAY STILL BE ENHANCED DEPENDING ON LOCAL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HANES SHORT TERM...HANES LONG TERM...MLE

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