Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 121445 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1045 AM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will exit to the east of the Canadian Maritimes today with gusty winds through the daytime hours. Winds will then weaken tonight through Thursday as high pressure builds over New England. Unsettled weather is then possible late week and into the upcoming weekend but no major systems are currently anticipated. Could see a cool down early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1045 AM Update... Going forecast for today is in good shape with only minor tweaks to winds and T/Tds to align with observations and incoming 12Z guidance. Mixing has allowed NW winds to perk up and will remain gusty into early afternoon before relaxing late this afternoon and evening. 730 AM Update... Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends. Mainly clear skies prevail south of the mountains, although there are some clouds hovering over eastern areas due to the closer proximity to the low pressure system. These will exit later this morning though as drier air arrives and low pressure continues it`s eastward movement. Previously... Latest RAP13 pressure analysis early this morning shows vertically stacked low pressure located over the Canadian Maritimes with cyclonic northwesterly flow persisting over New England. Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows mainly clear skies over the region with the exception of some lingering strato-cumulus over northern NH, the western Maine mountains, and northern and eastern Maine. Radar imagery shows some weak returns over the western ME mountains but the column is fairly dry and thus would not expect more than a flurry over the higher terrain. Current temperatures are into the 20s to middle 30s from north to south but occasional wind gusts nearing 30 kts is making it feel colder. Today will feature another day of gusty northwesterly winds, although they will not be as strong as compared to Monday. The pressure gradient between departing low pressure to our east and an approaching ridge to our west will be weakening but soundings via BUFKIT indicate deep mixing up to around 850 mb or so. This will allow for wind gusts between generally 30-35 mph but a few gusts closer to 40 mph will be possible, especially early in the day. It will otherwise be a mainly sunny day with low relative humidity into the 20-30 percent range (mainly over southern locations). Given the dry airmass and plethora of sunshine that is expected, went on the warm end of guidance, which places highs into the middle 40s to middle 50s south of the mountains.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Winds will quickly dissipate this evening as we lose daytime mixing and sfc high pressure begins to build over the region. These weakening winds, clear overnight skies, and low dew points should allow for good radiational cooling conditions. Therefore, used MOS guidance heavily for overnight lows, which places northern spots into the teens to near 20 and then 20s to near 30 degrees south. An upper level ridge axis will arrive on Wednesday as sfc high pressure builds to our northwest. There is some indication that a weak wave of energy could arrive during the evening but the airmass looks very dry and thus the only real impact will probably be some increase in cloudiness late in the day and evening. It will otherwise be a very nice day with partly to mostly sunny skies, light winds, and warm high temperatures into the middle to upper 50s south of the mountains. A few places in southern NH could approach 60 degrees if enough sun is realized. The weak flow could allow for a sea breeze to develop though, which would keep the coast cooler given the still cold SSTs. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 500 MB pattern across NOAM starts as slightly anticyclonic zonal flow mid week, which transitions to more highly amplified flow by the end of the weekend, and fairly deep and cold trough gets carved out to our W. Withing the forecast we should generally stay above normal temps in this pattern, or at least not fall below normal. The gradually deterioration of the anticyclonic zonal flow by late week will lead to a more unsettled pattern Friday through the weekend, although may see a break late Saturday or Sunday, but too far out attm, to have high confidence in this. The trend is for below normal to move in early next week. Thursday looks mild, although clouds will increase during the day, but still should hold as p/sunny for most of the day. Highs range from 45-50 in the mtns to 50-55 in central ME and the coast, pushing to near 60 in srn NH. Thursday night becomes cloudy and introduces the chc for some SHRA /potentially some SHSN in the mtns, especially at elevation/. Expecting a steadier precip Friday into Friday night, but for now looks more on the light side, with the highest QPF in the S, and could be a mix of RASN in the N, with all SN possible on the high terrain. Highs Friday will be lowered by the clouds and precip and highs will be mostly in the 40s, but maybe around 50 in interior S NH. The 00Z models runs seem to make Saturday look like a dry, but potentially mostly cloudy day. It`ll little cooler in NE flow, with highs in the 40s again. Another round of showers possible Sunday into Sunday as a more significant cold front moves through Sunday night, then colder for Monday. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term...VFR conditions through at least Wednesday. Northwesterly winds will continue to gust up to around 35 kts at times through 00Z Wednesday before weakening tonight and remaining light on Wednesday. Long Term...Mainly VFR expected Wed night into Thu, but will likely see fog and stratus develop Thu night, with some showers possible in the S. Expecting flight restrictions to persist through Friday and into at least Friday evening in precip and low cigs. I think improvement to VFR possible by Saturday. && .MARINE... Short Term...Gale force northwesterly winds will persist through early this afternoon before diminishing to SCA thresholds through the first half of tonight and then below 25 kts late tonight through Wednesday. Seas will also be diminishing. Long Term...Winds remain on the light side Wed night through Friday, but may see some NE winds freshen to near SCA levels late Friday night into Sat. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ150>154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Tubbs NEAR TERM...Schroeter/Tubbs SHORT TERM...Tubbs LONG TERM...Cempa

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