Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KGYX 110142 CCA
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Gray ME
842 PM EST Tue Jan 10 2017
-- Changed Discussion --A warm front will lift northeast through the region tonight and
will be quickly followed by another front early Wednesday. It will
warm up for Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front will slowly
approach from the west Wednesday night and Thursday and will push
east through the area Thursday night. High pressure will build in
from the west Friday through Saturday and will hold over the
region through Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
Update...A very dense...cold air mass remains entrenched across
interior parts of the forecast area. It will be especially
difficult to erode along the E slopes of the mountains and
foothills. Near the coast temps will make a more rapid jump above
freezing as the coastal front races inland. I have issued a
freezing rain advisory for areas where cold air will be most
difficult to displace. The good news is that without a well place
high pressure to the NE...there is little cold to replenish this
air mass as latent heat of freezing and WAA continually warm the
Previous discussion...A warm front approaching from the southwest
will spread light snow or a mix of rain and snow into southwest
zones after sunset this evening. Snow will gradually spread east
through interior sections of New Hampshire and western Maine
during the evening hours. Will gradually see snow mix with rain
and slowly change over all rain in southern interior and central
sections overnight. Should see some light accumulations of
generally an inch or less in coastal and southern interior
sections before the changeover.
Increasing southerly flow will result in upslope areas in Central
New Hampshire and Maine picking up 2 to 4 inches of wet snow
before the change over. 1 to 3 inches can be expected in the far
north before mixing with or changing to rain. Rain and mixed
precip should be winding down in New Hampshire before dawn and in
western Maine by daybreak Wednesday.
Expect lows to occur during the evening hours before temperatures
begin rising. Lows will range from the 20s north to the lower to
mid 30s south.
Strong low level jet will punch into the midcoast area after
midnight with gusts along the immediate coast reaching 40 to 50
mph toward daybreak Wednesday so have issued wind advisories for
mid coast zones for late tonight through early Wednesday.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will swing through early Wednesday morning and skies
will quickly clear from west to east. Not much in the way of cold
air behind the front so expect temps to take a good jump during
the morning hours...topping out in the early afternoon with lower
to mid 40s north and mid 40s to lower 50s south. Expect increasing
high clouds in western zones by mid to late afternoon as another
system approaches from the west.
Clouds will thicken Wednesday night as a cold front slowly
approaches from the west. Area of weak over-running passing south
of the region may brush southern zones with a few showers after
midnight. There will also be a chance of a little light freezing
rain in northern zones toward Thursday morning as the front shifts
into northern New York. Lows will range through the 20s north and
lower to mid 30s south.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Chance of high impact WX: Minimal.
Strong zonal pattern develops at 500 mb across the Pacific, with
split occuring over the west coast, this will allow for amplified
and unsettled, but warm flow over the rest of NOAM as cold air get
bushed back closer to the pole and Alaska. One surge of colder air
hits for the weekend, but will return to above normal temps after
Compact, but energetic 500 trough swings N of the GReat Lakes Thu
and Thu night and will provide initially some WAA Thu followed by
a Cold late Thu and Thu night. Warm sfc air in place will like be
mainly rain but could still be FZRA inland early Thu. Otherwise
temps warm into the 40s and low 50s, and maybe a little higher in
the south, if we can break into some sun in the warm sector Thu
afternoon. Cold front moves through around 00Z, and may set off
another round showers as it moves through, although temps don`t
cool off too much until trough axis swings through Friday. Morning
highs Friday will range from the mid to upper 30s in the N, to the
lower 40s in the south, but temps will then fall thru the
The weekend looks colder, but fair, with temps running a little
below normal, but not as bad as previous cold outbreaks this
winter. Sat will be the colder day with highs in the teen N, to
mid-upper 20s south, and Sunday look for highs a few degrees
warmer generally raging from the mid to upper 20s in the N, to
the mid 30s in the south. Sat morning lows will be in the -5 to
zero range in the N, and around 10 in the south, with milder
readings Sunday morning. On Saturday will have to watch weak low
passing to our south, but for now models in agreement that any
snow stays in southern New England.
Models begin to diverge early next week, at least on synoptic
scale, as the GFS produces more organized 500 mb trough to our W,
while the Euro shows several smaller waves. Have just gone chc
pops Mon Night through Tue night for now. Models do agree to some
level of a warming trend early next week as well.
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...IFR/LIFR ceilings/vsby developing tonight....
improving to VFR early Wednesday. Areas of mvfr ceilings
developing after midnight Wednesday night.
Long Term...IFR expected in RA on Thu, with some moderate
improvement o MVFR Tue night and then improvement to VFR on Fri,
which will hold through the weekend.
Short Term...Gale warning for southwest and central waters and
bays with a storm warning in far eastern outer waters through
Long Term...SCA may be needed again Thu through Fri, with SW flow
Thu shifting to NW on Fri.
Strong south to southeast flow overnight will create a storm surge
of 0.5 to 1 foot. This may create some splashover or beach erosion
at the time of high tide around 930 am Wednesday so will be
issuing a Coastal Flood Statement highlighting the threat.
ME...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Wednesday for MEZ025>028.
Freezing Rain Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for MEZ013-014-
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ151>154.
Storm Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ150.