Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 272327 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 727 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the area tonight will move east into the Atlantic on Sunday and create a cool onshore breeze over coastal areas. A cold front arriving from the west will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night with high pressure building in behind the front through midweek. Another cold front will cross the area Wednesday. Cool high pressure will follow the front for later in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 720 pm update: skies mostly clear across the region with any remaining clouds fair weather clouds dissipating around sunset. After input of latest obs data only very minor tweaks to temperatures needed. Rest of forecast looks good for the overnight hours. Previous Discussion: High pressure continues to rotate offshore tonight. Before north flow is established winds will become light and variable. Clouds this afternoon will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating but there will be some increase in mid and high clouds from the west towards morning as a warm front lifts north. Light winds combined with a dry airmass should provide ideal conditions for radiational cooling overnight...with temperatures dropping into the 50s in most locations. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As the low pressure system moves through southern Quebec, onshore flow will become established making for a sticky, humid time on Sunday. Increased cloud cover and humidity will keep temperatures lower in Maine than they are today. Places like Keene... Manchester...and Nashua will peak in the mid 80s however. Gusty winds develop Sunday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Offshore stratus and fog will form and approach from the SE, possibly bringing some drizzle to coastal areas towards nightfall. A cold front will slowly drop into the region Sunday night into Monday morning. The best forcing does not arrive until after 2 am when a sharpening upper level trough and right entrance region of a jet stream impinge on NH and ME. There is enough elevated instability for at least isolated thunderstorms, but enough forcing will need to be realized to erase the cap for any thunder to develop. Some areas will see very little rain while other areas, such as the mountains, will receive more. Heavy downpours will be possible with such high moisture in place and flow aligning throughout the atmospheric column. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The cold front will continue to move out to sea Monday morning as drier air starts to move in from the west on gusty northwest winds. Will keep the slight chance of a shower in the forecast for the mountains during the day as a weak trough passes to the north and colder air moves in aloft. Temperatures Monday should continue to be warm in southern areas though...reaching the mid to upper 80s. High pressure then settles over the area for Tuesday with mostly sunny skies and temps across the region mainly in the 70s to lower 80s. Another cold front will cross the area Wednesday. This will bring another chance for showers and possibly a thunderstorm...depending on timing. A cooler area of high pressure will drop down from Canada behind the front for Thursday and Friday. An upper trough could bring a shower to mountain areas Friday as it swings through. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...VFR conditions will prevail through Sunday afternoon although LIFR fog is likely once again in HIE and LEB. Long Term... Any MVFR conditions Monday morning should improve to VFR during the day. MVFR conditions are also possible Wednesday in any showers or possible thunderstorms with the frontal passage. Otherwise...mainly VFR conditions expected through the period. && .MARINE... Short Term...High pressure shifts into the Gulf of Maine tonight. Fog and stratus may develop over the ocean, pushing toward the mid coast Sunday morning. Late Sunday night into Monday morning fog and stratus are likely Long Term... SCAs may be needed Monday as northwest winds cause seas to build to near 5 feet offshore. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.