Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 152308 AAA AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 708 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will gradually settle south from Canada tonight through Sunday and will stall over northern New England Sunday night and Monday. The front will lift north Monday night and Tuesday. A warm front will cross the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. Low pressure will approach from the west Wednesday night and will move east through southern Quebec on Thursday driving a trailing cold front through the region Thursday night. High pressure will build in from the west Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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707 PM Update... Line of showers moving through NH and ME attm still do not have any lightning although the shape of the storms is intriguing and something to keep an eye on. Will continue to watch. Temps, dew points, and sky cover have been adjusted so far tonight but may need to be adjusted further. Previous discussion... A weak cold front will continue to move across the region early this evening. Forcing for ascent and instability are quite weak so we only expect a continuation of sct/wdly sct showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorms through about sunset. Most of the region will remain dry. Overnight, areas of fog are expected to develop, with a few locations possibly becoming locally dense. AVIATION... MARINE...
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Height rises are expected on Sunday over New England as a short wave trough digs well to our west. This should aid in keeping the vast majority of the forecast area dry during the day along with warmer temperatures. Isolated showers or even a spot thunderstorm will be possible across northernmost zones, but that should not be the norm. Mainly dry Sunday night with increasing clouds, especially in the west. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Stalled frontal boundary over northern New England will slowly lift north on Monday. Weak shortwave approaching from the west will help to increase instability during the day in the warm and humid airmass south of the front. Not a lot in the way of shear across the region but PWAT`s approach 1.5 inches will likely produce slow moving pulse type storms with very heavy rainfall. High temps on Monday will range from the mid 70s north to the mid 80s south. Showers and thunderstorms will die out with loss of heating Monday night. Expect northern locations to see variable clouds overnight with lows in the lower to mid 60s. Models suggesting ocean stratus will develop in moist onshore flow in coastal and southern zones overnight. Stratus will hang tough across much of coastal and southern Maine Tuesday before boundary layer winds turn more southwesterly late in the day. Will likely see another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms in areas that see sun across central and western New Hampshire. Highs on Tuesday will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s. Warm front will push in from the west Tuesday night and Wednesday. Will likely go close to SB pops for showers or thunderstorms overnight but expect any activity to be light and widely scattered. Expect a warm and muggy night with lows in the lower to mid 60s. Wednesday looking sunny and hot as the warm front pushes east of the region. High temps will range through the 80s from north to south with far southern New Hampshire topping out near 90. Wednesday night looking warm and humid with lows ranging through the 60s. Low pressure crossing southern Quebec on Thursday will bring the threat of showers and thunderstorms back into the region. Best chance of storms will be northern zones where increasing shear may result in some severe storms with the main threat being wind damage. Highs on Thursday will range from the mid 70s north to the mid 80s south. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...MVFR to locally IFR conditions are expected in fog tonight, especially on the mid coast and central ME. Otherwise, VFR Sunday and Sunday night with light winds. Long Term...VFR Monday. IFR/LIFR ceilings developing Monday night and persisting through Tuesday. Becoming VFR Tuesday night. VFR Wednesday and Thursday. && .MARINE... Short Term...Other than some locally dense marine fog tonight, SCA conditions are not expected tonight through Sunday night. Long Term...No problems noted. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for MEZ027-028. NH...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Hanes NEAR TERM...Ekster SHORT TERM...Ekster LONG TERM...Sinsabaugh

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