Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 221044 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 644 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TODAY WHICH WILL BRING IN MORE WARM AND HUMID AIR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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640 AM...JUST SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/SKY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT ALL IN ALL THE FORECAST FOR A WARM AND MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY HOLDS. PREVIOUSLY...AFTER SOME MORNING FOG...RIDGING BUILDS AT MID AND AND UPPER LEVELS TODAY AS SFC HIGHS SHIFTS JUST TO OUR SE. THIS WILL BRING IN THE WARMER AIR AROUND 850 MB...AND SW FLOW WILL INCR BRINGING IN THE MORE HUMID SFC AIR. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AREAS...WITH TDS REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. COASTAL ZONES SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE LOWERS 80...ALTHOUGH THE BEACHES AND THE MID-COAST MAY BE LIMITED TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ALSO...SOME OF THE BEACHES MAY BE LOOKING AT FOG BANK SITTING JUST OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH THINK IT SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE INCREASING TDS AND SW GRADIENT FLOWN WILL MAKE FOR A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...ALTHOUGH MAYBE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MTNS. VLY FOG SHOULD BE COMMON...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG/STRATUS WORKING ONSHORE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID-COAST. WED SHOULD START OFF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG...BUT THE SW FLOW SHOULD MIX IT OUT FAIRLY EASILY. VERY WARM AIR AT 850 MB /15-17C/ WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE MORNING...AND IT SHOULD MIX DOWN AND WARM THINGS UP QUICKLY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS....WHERE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE MORNING MAKING IT MORE P/SUNNY. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB A COUPLE WARMER THAN TUESDAY...AND SHOULD REACH AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER SPOTS OF SRN NH AND SW ME. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE ABOUT 3-5F COOLER. WED AFT/EVE ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER FOR A ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS AS THE WARM AND HUMID AIR GENERATES QUITE OF BIT OF INSTABILITY /CAPES IN THE 1K-2K RANGE/ BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BETWEEN 18-00Z AS 500MB TROUGH OUTPACES THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT...ALLOWING FOR DECENT FALL WHICH WILL ERODE THE MID-LVL CAP. ALL THIS IS DECENT FOR PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS IN NRN NEW ENGLAND. TWO ISSUES ARE WIND PROFILES...WHICH LIMIT BULK SHEAR TO AROUND 30 KTS OR SO...AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES...WHICH ARE 5-7 C/KM. STILL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS...MOSTLY PRODUCING STRONG OR DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE STORMS MAY NOT MOVE INTO COASTAL ZONES UNTIL EARLY EVE...AND COULD SEE MARINE LYR WEAKEN THE STORMS BEFORE THEY GET THERE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. USHERING IN DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE AIR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AS WE LOSE THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL TOUCH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FEATURE. THE GFS BRINGS THIS FEATURE THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF. WARMER AN MORE HUMID WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. HAVE SEEN SOME FG/STRATUS AT KRKD...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE LOCAL EFFECT AS BULK OF FOG BANK STILL HOLDING WELL OFFSHORE BASED ON 11-3.9 MU SAT PRODUCT. VFR WILL RETURN BY 12-13Z AT ALL TERMINALS. MORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT....ESPECIALLY INLAND VLYS. WED WILL SEE A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVER TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...MAIN FOG BANK LOOKS TO SIT OVER THE OUTER WATERS TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE SHORE. SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS FOLLOWING TONIGHT. MAY NEED SCA FOR BORDERLINE/WINDS SEAS ON WED. LONG TERM...SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CEMPA SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...

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