Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 200147 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 947 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move out to sea through the overnight hours. Dense fog is possible overnight. Fair weather returns Tuesday through Thursday as high pressure moves in. Another cold front will approach toward the end of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Update... Latest update was to include the coast in a dense fog advisory. Patchy dense fog elsewhere as well, but at this time, not sufficiently widespread enough to warrant headlines. Otherwise, have updated the grids based on current conditions. Latest radar imagery continues to show light showers moving very slowly over southern NH and coastal York county in Maine. These will continue to drift slowly northeast and dissipate shortly in line with current mesoscale models show this precip dissipating. The atmosphere has stabilized, therefore we have removed the mention of thunderstorms from the gridded database. Prev Disc... Have lowered PoPs across much of the region as ascent for forcing will stay to our south and east tonight. IR satellite imagery shows cloud tops warming over the area. Have kept chances near the coast and over the islands but for the most part the event is over. There could be a rumble of thunder across southern areas. Portions of southern NH and southwest Maine did receive 1-3 inches with isolated higher amounts while elsewhere only a few hundredths were observed. This will help the drought in southern NH but we still need more rainfall to make an impact elsewhere. Clouds will lift and scatter out this afternoon/evening some before dense fog develops. There will be widespread half mile or less visibilities with pockets of quarter mile of less. Insulating cloud cover will keep overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Latest model guidance is later with the approach of a weak front moving through southern Canada tomorrow. We may seem some isolated to scattered showers along the international border but they will be light and short-lived. Temperatures will reach the 70s and 80s with a much drier airmass in place. Wednesday morning lows will drop into the 50s across the north in mostly clear skies... however west winds aren`t expected to decouple completely so we won`t be that cool. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure centered over the region will move offshore Thursday. A strong cold front will move through the area by early Saturday. Warm and mild conditions expected Wednesday into Thursday ahead of the front. A sunny mild day for Wednesday but clouds to be increasing Thursday with scattered showers possible by Thursday night well in advance of the Canadian cold front. Friday and Friday night will be unsettled ahead of the cold front with showers expected. The cold front moves through the region and to our south by Saturday morning followed the coolest air of the season for the rest of the weekend accompanied by blustery north winds. Used superblend model for timing of weekend cold front and also pops and temperatures. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term...Light showers/drizzle may affect coastal terminals through the evening but for the most part won`t affect visibility. LIFR/IFR conditions...mainly in dense fog...will creep back in after some improvement early on tonight. It will also be a struggle to mix out to higher ceilings tomorrow. Winds will go calm overnight and be light tomorrow. Long Term...VFR conditions except LIFR in any late night or early morning fog. Conditions should become MVFR in scattered showers late Thursday through Friday night in advance of an approaching cold front. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds and waves will stay below small craft criteria. Long Term...Winds and seas to remain light through late this week. SCA conditions will likely develop over the weekend behind a strong cold front. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for MEZ023>028. NH...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NHZ014. MARINE...None.
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