Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 270708 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 308 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY AND PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN SOME AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY LURKING JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS INTO THE AREA TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST. INCREASING WARMTH WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW GREATER HEATING POTENTIAL TODAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE UP ABOUT 4C TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CONSIDERING YESTERDAY SAW HIGHS APPROACH 80 DEGREES IT IS LIKELY THAT 80S WILL BE WIDESPREAD TODAY WITH SOME MID 80S POSSIBLE. ALSO FACTORING INTO THE SITUATION IS A WARMER START TO THE DAY THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD FAVOR GREATER TOTAL HEATING BY THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT OFFSHORE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE SEABREEZE FROM ARRIVING UNTIL A LITTLE LATER IN THE DAY... SO EVEN COASTAL AREAS COULD REACH 80. RECORD HIGHS TODAY ARE 80 IN PORTLAND (1948) AND 88 IN CONCORD (1933). 80 IN PORTLAND LOOKS LIKELY TO BE TIED OR BROKEN. IT IS A LOW SPOT IN THE RECORD BOOKS (YESTERDAY`S RECORD WAS 90) SO THE RECORD IS BASICALLY BEGGING TO BE BROKEN. 88 IN CONCORD SEEMS SAFE THOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD BE REACHED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
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EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT... WITH MODERATE MOISTURE LEVELS STILL AROUND. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY WITH FOG POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BUT MOST LIKELY IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS. SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM ONE. CORE OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. SO TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER FOR WESTERN AREAS ON SUNDAY... BUT EASTERN AREAS WILL BE WARM ONCE AGAIN. SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH FAVORS MORE OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OVER THE MIDCOAST OF MAINE AND AN EARLIER SEABREEZE... SO COASTAL AREAS MIGHT NOT RISE AS HIGH ON SUNDAY AS THEY DO TODAY. RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY ARE 82 IN PORTLAND (1948) AND 90 IN CONCORD (1873). PORTLAND MAY COME CLOSE TO THE RECORD BUT THE CONCORD RECORD LOOKS SAFE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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WARM NIGHT ON TAP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT LURKING JUST TO THE NORTH. THIS FRONT IS PRETTY WELL-AGREED UPON BY THE VARIOUS 00Z GUIDANCE MEMBERS TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MOST AREAS WILL BE WARM FOR A GOOD PORTION OF DAY...BUT THEN IT LOOKS LIKE THE BOTTOM DROPS OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. IN ADDITION...STRATUS/DRIZZLE/SHOWERS MAY FORM IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MAINLY MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MAINE MAY GO FROM THE 70-75 RANGE MIDDAY SUNDAY TO THE 50S BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING GIVING AN IDEA OF THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXPECTED WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT IT ISN/T EXPECTED TO BE A VERY CLEAN AIRMASS...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GOOD DEAL OF LOW CLOUDS WELL INTO TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST EXISTS AS MODELS ATTEMPT TO BRING LOW PRESSURE NORTHWARD POSSIBLY INTO OUR AREA LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS REALLY LATCHED ONTO THIS IDEA AND WOULD MEAN A PRETTY RAINY/WINDY SCENARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO IN BLOCKY PATTERN.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...MAINE AVIATION ISSUE WILL BE VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. LEBANON... WHITEFIELD... AND CONCORD WILL BE AFFECTED. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF FOG AT THE OTHER LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE WITH A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING AT THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. LONG TERM...VFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY DRIZZLE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MEANS WIND FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY DIURNAL SEABREEZE. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY AND WILL BRING A SOUTHWEST FLOW BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. LONG TERM...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS AT LEAST ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THEREAFTER...WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON THAT AT THIS TIME.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...KIMBLE SHORT TERM...KIMBLE LONG TERM...EKSTER

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