Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 241031 AAA AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 631 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL STALL OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG THE BOUNDARY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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.UPDATE... MADE MINOR CHANGES TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS SOME MID CLOUDS ROUND THE TOP OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND DRIFT INTO MAINE THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS MAY ULTIMATELY AFFECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECASTS OVER SOMERSET COUNTY AND ENVIRONS. MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON THESE CLOUDS EITHER... WHETHER THIS IS DUE TO A VERY THIN MOISTURE LAYER OR OVERFORECASTING OF SUBSIDENCE I AM NOT SURE. ALSO INPUT THE LATEST HOURLY OBSERVATIONS.
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&& PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA TODAY... KEEPING SKIES SUNNY AND SHOWERS AT BAY. TEMPERATURES AROUND 850 MB WARM TO 12-14 DEGREES C WHICH... ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES... SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER TO MID 80S AREAWIDE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE RELAXES SOMEWHAT AND SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CANADA NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES... STEERED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE. STILL EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO CONTRIBUTE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 50S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND A FEW SPOTS NEAR 60 POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DROP. AN EVEN WARMER DAY IS ON TAP FOR MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE RESULTING IN SW WINDS OVER THE REGION. 850MB READINGS WARM TO NEAR 15 DEGREES C OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE MID 80S WITH SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE MAKING A RUN INTO THE UPPER 80S. COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE A BIT COOLER THANKS TO A SEA BREEZE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR 60 AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY CREEPING INTO NORTHERN ZONES TO KICK OFF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A DRY NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. INCREASING SHEAR DURING THE DAY MAY RESULT IN SOME SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO NORTHERN ZONES BY THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY SOME WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO LIFT NORTH ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG IT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HEADS SOUTH AT THIS POINT AS MODELS DIVERGE BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A VERY WET END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY DENSE MORNING FOG...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. LONG TERM...VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...NO PROBLEMS ARE NOTED OVER THE WATERS. LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HANES

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