Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 140235 AAC AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1035 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... UPDATE...ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD ACROSS THE AREA...AS WARM FNT STRENGTHENS TO THE S. WINDS HAVE TURNED MORE NLY...AND ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP DESPITE WAA ALOFT. HAVE LEANED HEAVILY ON PERSISTENCE OF THESE CURRENT TEMPS THRU THE NIGHT...AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAR TOO WARM ATTM. AS SUCH...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MIXED PCPN ACROSS THE FAR N TONIGHT...IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...JUST GOT A REPORT OF SOME GRAUPEL OUT OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN WRN ME. THESE SHRA WILL CROSS THE CAPITAL AREA AND MID COAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ANY PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN BY 5 OR 6 PM...AND THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS DRY. TOUGH PART OF FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS WHERE AND WHETHER THE MARINE/COLD LYR MAXES OUT BEFORE SUNSET. THIS IS ALREADY HAPPENING IN INTERIOR SRN NH...WHERE TEMPS HAVE JUMPED WELL INTO THE 50S IN SOME SPOTS. IN AREAS THAT DO BREAK OUT...MINS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF SOME. HOWEVER...ALONG THE COAST AND AND IN THE ERN INTERIOR ZONES...WHERE THE MARINE LYR IN ENTRENCHED...IT SEEMS LESS LKLY THAT THE SW WINDS WILL MIX DOWN...AND LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS WILL HOLD THRU THE NIGHT. HERE..MINS ARE LKLY TO OCCUR AROUND SUNSET...AS TEMPS WILL LKLY RISE VERY SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/... WILL SEE LINGERING STRATUS AND FOG IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST FROM PORTLAND EAST...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SSW FLOW TO BREAK OUT MOST EVERYWHERE BY MID-LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR SKIES TO BE SUNNY7 TO P/SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY WITH STRONG SW FLOW MIXING DOWN VERY WARM AIR IN THE 925-850MB...WHICH IN THE WARMER INLAND AREAS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE 70S. ALONG THE COAST S OF CASCO BAY...WILL LKLY SEE SOME TURNING OF THE WINDS TO THE S...WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S. ALONG THE MID COAST..HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVES INTO WRN NY MON NIGHT. AND THE SSW FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MINS ON THE MILDER SIDE...50S S...AND GENERALLY 40S ELSEWHERE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALSO...COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS IS LKLY TO ROLL IN MON EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT WILL LKLY MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE FOOTHILLS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. EXPECT RAIN TO PUSH INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL COME DOWN HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PROBLEMS OF AREA RIVERS AS ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL COMBINES WITH RAPID SNOW MELT AND ICE JAMS ON AREA RIVES. TAIL END OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW OR SLEET AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT BUT NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION. RAIN AND MIXED PRECIP WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SKIES WILL CLEAR DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT BREEZY START TO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS TIGHTER GRADIENT SHIFTS EAST AND VARIABLE CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTH WILL ALSO DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 30S NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN TWO FAIRLY NICE DAYS ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPS. WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY BUT BOTH DAYS SHOULD ALSO FEATURE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. EXPECT TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. FRIDAY LOOKING SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE REGION IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE AN OCCLUDED FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON SATURDAY. AFTER SOME MORNING SUN CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. UPPER LOW SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING AND WILL LIKELY BRING ALONG ENOUGH COLDER AIR TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTH INTO SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...COASTAL TERMINAL AND KAUG WILL DROP TO IFR OR LOWER IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG THIS EVENING...AND WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY. AT KCON/KLEB/KHIE...WILL SEE SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...PROBABLY REACHING IFR...BUT PROB NOT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER VFR MON AFTERNOON...THE COASTAL TERMINALS LOOK TO FALL TO IFR OR LOWER AGAIN IN STRATUS/FOG AROUND SUNSET...AND THE OTHER TERMINALS WILL FOLLOW SUIT BY MIDNIGHT. LONG TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY TUESDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA EXTENDED THROUGH MON NIGHT. PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO TUE...AND WILL FRESHEN LATE MONDAY AND MON NIGHT...APPROACHING GALES. LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... THE COMBINATION RAPID SNOW MELT AND SOME PERIODS OF RAIN WILL KEEP MOST RIVERS RUNNING HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. ICE MOVEMENT WILL ADD TO THE UNPRECICTABILITY OF WATER LEVELS ON AREA RIVERS TODAY AND MONDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WENESDAY AS POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITHA COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014- 018>028. NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ NEAR TERM...LEGRO

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