Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 221708 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1208 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND RACE NORTHEASTWARD...GRAZING THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1202 PM...A MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT SATELLITE TREND AND TO INGEST MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS. 840 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INCORPORATE THE 13Z MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS. PREV DISC... 7AM UPDATE... HAVE INSERTED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO THE GRIDDED FORECAST TO INITIALIZE THE FORECAST WITH REAL NUMBERS FOR THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. TEMPERATURES FELL BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS BUT STAYED IN THE 20S AT THE COAST. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT AS EXPECTED. NO OTHER FORECAST CHANGES NEEDED AT THE MOMENT. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY. IT WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT AFFECTS ON THE WEATHER FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE OR WESTERN MAINE BEYOND A FEW CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE PULLING OUT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY. SHOULD SEE SOME SUN FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS THE TEMPERATURE WARMS INTO THE 20S AND LOW 30S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE FANFARE. LACK OF MOISTURE LEAVES THIS WAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF PRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION AND WILL ONLY BRING A FEW PASSING CLOUDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. A WARM FRONT FORMING TO OUR NORTHWEST IN QUEBEC WILL PROVIDE A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST MAINE. OTHERWISE FRIDAY REMAINS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 20S AND LOW 30S AGAIN. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A FORMIDABLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHILE RACING NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE EFFECTS OF THIS LOW WILL MAINLY GRAZE OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND COASTAL PLAIN. USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...GGEM...SREF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS RESULTED IN LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW IN THE AFOREMENTIONED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DID NOT WANT TO GO CATEGORICAL AT THIS TIME AS SEVERAL OTHER MODELS TAKE THE LOW OUT TO SEE WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP AFFECTING OUR AREA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN RESPECTABLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH AT LEAST A FEW TENTHS LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN...SO CREDENCE HAS TO BE GIVEN TO IT. IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH OF A PHASE TAKES PLACE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS AND HOW SOON. A QUICKER PHASE MAY PULL MORE PRECIPITATION AND WIND INTO OUR REGION WITH A FURTHER WEST TRACK. LESS OF A PHASE MAY LEAVE US HIGH AND DRY. IN A NUTSHELL...CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS IS LOW. AT THIS TIME HAVE FORECASTED A GENERAL 2 TO 5 INCH SNOWFALL FOR THE COAST...WITH A TIGHT W-E GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE SNOW FOR THE INTERIOR. THEREAFTER...HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ECMWF FOR SUNDAY- WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...GENERALLY DRY WITH ANY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKING TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...THIS COULD CHANGE. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. LONG TERM... SATURDAY MAY SEE A DECREASE TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN IN SNOW...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP A NORTHWEST WIND BELOW 25 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. LONG TERM...A COASTAL LOW WILL PASS EAST OF THE WATERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING WINDS UP TO SCA AHEAD OF IT WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ ES

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