Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 110903 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 403 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move east tonight. A warm front will slowly cross the region later Thursday into Thursday night. A strong cold front will cross the area Friday night and stall near the coast by early Saturday morning. Low pressure will move along the stalled front on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Very light freezing rain and sleet is moving into the northernmost zones at this time as forecast. Southerly winds are already bringing temperatures above freezing in many spots, and this trend will continue. Only seeing a few sites report anything, and forecast soundings indicate sleet may be a better bet for what reaches the ground. HRRR and other CAM models indicate only a couple more hours of QPF before precipitation begins to dry up. Thus, will likely cancel the Winter Weather Advisory early and use SPSs to convey concerns if any. Precipitation will be limited today mainly to the mountains, and will changeover to plan rain later this morning. Not expecting much QPF. Stratus and fog will develop by this afternoon with warmer air being pumped in over a cold and deep snowpack. SW winds will become gusty early on today. Strong WAA should warm temperatures into the 40s north to upper 40s/lower 50s south and along the coast. This will be the warmest temperatures we have seen since the first week in December, at least in Portland and Concord.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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Cloudy and foggy by this evening with temperatures just a few degrees cooler than today`s highs. Lows will range from the upper 30s to near 40 for the mountains, foothills, and much of the interior. Portions of southern NH and the coastlines will be closer to the mid 40s. A baroclinic zone approaches the Canadian border with precipitation ahead of it arriving around midnight tonight. This will be all rain due to the very warm temperatures. Fog will be widespread. QPF will be mostly confined to the mountains at first, but Friday up to an inch or so of QPF is expected to fall regionwide, with moderate accumulations at times. There may be a need for a flood watch given ice jams on area rivers and the very warm temperatures...see Hydrology section below. The cold front will move slowly and reaches the coast or just offshore Friday night. Colder air and possibly mixed freezing/frozen p-types arrive after midnight.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Cold front will gradually sag south into southern New England Friday night with rain changing over to freezing rain...then quickly going over to sleet and eventually snow in the mountains and foothills. Will see some light accumulations of ice but expect amounts to be generally a tenth of an inch or less. Snow amounts by daybreak in far northern zones will be around an inch or two. Looking for rain for most of the night in southern and coastal areas. Will likely need winter weather advisories for the mountains and foothills for the overnight...extending southward into coastal and southern zones for Saturday. Lows overnight will range from the mid 20s to lower 30s in the north and mid to upper 30s in the south. Low pressure moving out of southern New England Saturday morning will move northeast through the Gulf of Maine and into the maritimes by evening. Cold air will continue to seep southward Saturday morning with rain changing to freezing rain and sleet in coastal and southern interior sections. This would mainly be during the morning hours as all models advertising a dry slot punching in from the southwest in the afternoon and this is reflected in the light QPF for the 18z-00z time period. Some light ice accumulations will be possible in the south especially in mid coast and central interior sections including the capital district...but depth of cold air should quickly increase with precip quickly going over to sleet and finally snow in the afternoon. High temps will be reached during the early morning hours before slowly falling through the day. Looking for mostly cloudy skies Saturday night with snow showers in the north with some light accumulations possible. May see a few lingering snow showers in the south during the evening hours. Cold air will continue to stream into the region on north winds and by Sunday morning readings in northern zones will dip into the single numbers. Temps will bottom out in the lower to mid teens in the south. Clouds will gradually diminish on Sunday but it will likely take most of the day....especially in eastern and northern zones. Looks like it will be back to below normal temps with highs in the teens north and lower to mid 20s south. High pressure will build in from the west Sunday night bringing clearing skies and some very chilly overnight lows. Temperatures will range from 5 to 10 below in the north and 5 below to near 10 above in the south. Looking for a mix of sun and clouds on Monday but continued cold with highs in the teens north and upper teens to mid 20s south. Forecast confidence heads south for Tuesday and Wednesday as models showing major differences in timing and track of low pressure developing to the south of the region before swinging northeast. Have generally followed SB numbers for pops at this point but the potential will be there for another significant snowfall.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Short Term... Mostly VFR ceilings this morning with pockets of MVFR as very light precipitation moves across the region. Most sites are reporting only flurries if anything at all with only HIE really having any impacts with FZRA possible for a couple more hours. Precipitation will dry up later this morning. During the day fog and stratus is expected to form most locations as warmer air moves in over the snowpack. MVFR ceilings will develop tonight from Portland to Rockland along the coast as moisture increases, and also towards HIE. Low level wind shear expected today before winds really increase as mixing ensues. Long Term... IFR/LIFR ceilings/vsby Friday night through Saturday. MVFR ceilings Saturday night....improving to VFR on Sunday. VFR Monday.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term... Have cancelled the SCA to make way for a gale watch beginning Friday morning and lasting through the day. Strong winds just off the surface should occasional mix to the surface in moderate rainfall. Waves will also increase by several feet mainly over the eastern outer waters and Penobscot Bay in SW flow. Long Term... SCA`s likely Friday night and Saturday.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Warming temperatures today into Friday combined with rain may cause ice jams on area rivers. The precipitation amounts themselves are not enough to cause flooding concerns, even with increased runoff from melting, the resulting river rises may cause ice to break up and move resulting in jams. At this time a flood watch has not been issued. Ice jams are unpredictable and may form and break up at any time. Communities along the rivers should closely monitor the river ice. Spotters are encouraged to report ice jams to the National Weather Service.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MEZ007>009-012>014-021-022-026>028. NH...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NHZ001>004. MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for ANZ150>154.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...Hanes SHORT TERM...Hanes LONG TERM...Sinsabaugh

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