Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 281056 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 656 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 650 AM UPDATE: INPUT LATEST OBS DATA. BAND OF HEAVY SHWRS/TSTMS ROTATING NEWD AS EXPECTED. TIMING LOOKS GOOD. HRRR TIMING IS RIGHT ON. TEMPS LOOK GOOD...NO CHANGES NEEDED ATTM. PREV DISC: THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY HIGH PWAT`S WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS NH/WRN ME TODAY. CONFIDENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SO VERY HI POPS ARE FCST ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY. SFC TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT EVEN STILL SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS A CERTAINTY AND QPF TOTALS SHOULD AVG .75-1.0 INCH MOST AREAS WITH SOME PSBLY HIGHER AMTS. DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW STAYING INLAND...LATER IN THE DAY SOME DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO WORK INTO SRN AREAS IN THE FORM OF A DRY SLOT SO SOME PARTIAL CLEARING CAN`T BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF FOG CURRENTLY ACROSS ALL OF THE FA AND THIS WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING BEFORE ENOUGH MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION WIPES OUT THE LOW LEVEL STABLE LAYERS AND THE FOG. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPS. USED THE HRRR FOR TIMING ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING QUITE WELL WITH TIMING. RFCQPF WAS ACCEPTED. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE CENTER OF LOW PRES MOVES OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT ALLOWING A DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS TO WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AFTER SOME EVENING SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES TUE ALLOWING FURTHER CLEARING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GT LAKES FOLLOWS INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE WITH A DRY STABLE WLY FLO DEVELOPING. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHWRS MAY LINGER IN THE MTNS EARLY TUE MRNG DUE TO THE UPPER TROF...ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSUN. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TUE REACHING THE MID 70S MOST AREAS. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS/POPS AND TIMING OF CLEARING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WE EXPECT FAIR WEATHER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT AND OCCASIONAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO COMPLETE WASHOUTS ARE IN THE CARDS AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BR DRY MOST DAYS. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDS WITH LOCALLY LIFR CONDS TODAY IN AREAS OF FOG EARLY AND THEN DEVELOPING SHWRS/TSTMS OVER SRN NH ARND 12Z SPREADING FROM SW-NE REACHING SRN/WRN ME BY ARND 16Z. CONDS GRDLY IMPROVE TNGT TO VFR XCPT MVFR CIGS PERSISTING IN THE MTNS INTO TUE. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FROM THU THRU SAT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED DURING THE DAYTIME INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY RETAIN VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE TIME UNLESS ONSHORE FLOW MOISTENS UP AND PRODUCES SOME STRATUS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...THE PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 10-20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS REACHING OVER 25 KT WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO SCA CRIT THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THRU MOST OF TUE AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR A TIME ON THU WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$

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