Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 240139 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 939 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT STALLING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS TO REMAIN STUCK BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH COULD KEEP US ON THE DRY SIDE BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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940 PM...JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPS. 630 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CANCELLED THE REG FLAG WARNING AS CONDITIONS NO LONGER BEING MET ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT A CLEAR AND COOL EVENING. PREVIOUSLY... SFC HIGH BUILDS TO OUR WEST AS SFC LOW SLOWLY EXITS EAST. THIS WILL KEEP PRES GRADIENT TIGHT THRU THE NIGHT AND WINDS...ALTHOUGH DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT AS CAA CONTINUES. LOWS WILL DROP OFF TO THE MID 20S NORTH...TO LOW TO MID 30S IN THE SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... SFC HIGH BUILDS TO OUR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A GRADIENT OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY...AND ALLOW FOR DRY AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES SUNNY...BUT WILL DROP RH TO 15-20 PERCENT IN MANY SPOTS...AND FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AGAIN...BUT FOR ALL OF THE CWA EXCEPT THE FAR N. UNLIKE SATURDAY...WHEN THE GREATESTFIRE WX THREAT WAS LATER IN THE DAY...WINDS WILL LIKE PEAK AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...AND DIMINISH BEFORE SUNSET. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FORM THE LOW 50S NORTH...TO AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTH. SUN NIGHT SHOULD SEE WEAKENING OF GRADIENT AS FLOW SHIFTS MORE SE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...AND LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20...TO UPPER 30S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... EARLY IN THE EXTENDED FOCUS WILL BE ON A SHEARING UPPER LOW EJECTING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG A SLOWLY SINKING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THRU NEW ENGLAND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. SHOWERS SHOULD WORK INTO WRN NH MON AFTERNOON...HOLDING OFF ACROSS WRN ME UNTIL AFTER DARK. THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. THE 23.12Z GFS IS FARTHER N WITH RNFL COMPARED TO THE 23.12Z ECMWF...OWING MOSTLY TO THE STRENGTH OF UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER SW WITH THE LOW CENTER...SHUNTING PRECIP FARTHER SWD TOO. THAT BEING SAID...23.00Z ECMWF EPS WAS FARTHER NE WITH THE LOW CENTER...SO THE DETERMINISTIC COULD BE A SRN OUTLIER. FOR NOW WILL STICK TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FOR POP MON INTO TUE. BEYOND THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. COLD FNT WILL SLIP S OF NEW ENGLAND AND UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NERN CANADA. AGAIN THE ECMWF IS FARTHER SW WITH THE LOW AND KEEPS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PRECIP CHANCES S OF THE REGION. THE ECMWF WOULD REPRESENT A DRIER FORECAST...BUT ALSO A COOLER ONE...A BIT OF A CATCH 22. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT ON PRECIP CHANCES...THE OVERALL TREND OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS TO FAVOR COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH SUN NIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVE. LONG TERM...SLOWLY SAGGING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MON WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA INTO TUE. MVFR CIGS MAY EXIST ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR SRN TERMINALS...MAINLY S OF A LEB TO PWM LINE. ANY SHOWERS MAY CONTAINED BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. BOUNDARY SINKS S OF THE REGION TUE...AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...BORDERLINE NW SCA WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LONG TERM...AS BOUNDARY SLIPS S OF THE WATERS MON...NE FLOW BEHIND IT MAY BRING WINDS TO NEAR 25 KTS ON THE OUTER WATERS. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. && .FIRE WEATHER... ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR SUNDAY OVER THE SAME AREA...AND EXTENDED EAST ACROSS THE KENNEBEC AND PENOBSCOT VALLEYS. RH OF 15-20 PERCENT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...AND AND ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THEY WILL STILL GUST TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY THROUGH LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MEZ012>014-018>028. NH...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NHZ003>015. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER SHORT TERM...CEMPA LONG TERM...LEGRO AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO FIRE WEATHER...CEMPA

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