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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 141917
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
317 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE QUICKLY
CAUGHT UP BY A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OUT OF QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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WINDS AND DIURNAL CU WILL BOTH DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...ALLOWING
FOR ANOTHER VERY CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
BE A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH LESS IN THE WAY
OF WIND AND CLOUDS. RIDGE AXIS TRIES TO ALIGN OVER THE CWFA BY
12Z...SO IT MAY BE A LATE RUN AT MINS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST IN
THE INTERIOR TONIGHT...BUT REMAINING PATCHY ALONG THE COAST. AS
WE ARE STILL ABOUT A WEEK AWAY FROM INLAND ZONES JOINING THE
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES...NONE ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT GIVEN THE
PATCHY NATURE ALONG THE COAST.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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DRY START TO WED EXPECTED...AS WARM FNT APPROACHES FROM THE SW.
GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS THRU THE AFTERNOON...WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON BRINGING SHWRS ACROSS NH BY MID
AFTERNOON. RNFL WILL SPREAD EWD INTO WRN ME BY THE EVENING. THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...WITH A QUICK PASSAGE OF
OCCLUSION. QPF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...WITH AROUND A
QUARTER TO LOCALLY HALF INCH. AS LOW PRES MOVES EWD...FLOW ALOFT
TURNS WLY AND DOWNSLOPING WILL CLEAR OUT THE COASTAL PLAIN. SOME
SHRA MAY LINGER IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WITH WARMING ALOFT AND SOME SUN TO START THE DAY...WED SHOULD BE
MUCH WARMER THAN THE LAST TWO AFTERNOONS. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
60S...AS OPPOSED TO A SLOW STRUGGLE TO NEAR 60 TODAY. WITH WARM
FNT AND CLOUDS LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...MILD LOWS ARE
EXPECTED WED NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING WELL TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST FACING...UPSLOPE...HIGH TERRAIN.

WITH SOME SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...MIXING VALUES
INCREASE DURING THE DAY. WINDS ALSO ALIGN THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AS
THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE REGION. THEREFORE...EXPECT VERY GUSTY
WIND CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY...DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF MUCH
GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE. IT WILL BE A WARM BREEZE ALONG THE
COAST...WITH READINGS HITTING THE LOWER 70S FROM THE NH/MA BORDER
TO ABOUT WISCASSET.

SUFFICIENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT ONCE AGAIN TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOS ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHC FOR
SHOWERS...AND ONCE AGAIN THIS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE MTNS.

CYCLONIC FLOW CONTS ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT DIURNAL CU TO POP UP.

ON SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLC REGION. MODELS
ARE IN SOMEWHAT DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS
SYSTEM AND EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL TRACK BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON WED...VFR IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LOWERING CONDS PSBL BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS...BEGINNING ACROSS WRN NH AND SPREADING EWD.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BLO SCA THRESHOLDS TONIGHT.
WARM FNT CROSSING THE WATERS WED WILL INCREASE SLY FLOW TO NEAR 25
KT GUSTS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT.

LONG TERM...SCA TO MINIMAL GALES LIKELY THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE REPLACED ON WED BY INCREASINGLY
WARMER AND WETTER WEATHER. A DRY START TO THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
RAIN SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THE EVENING. A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN APPEARS LIKELY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

LEGRO/JC