Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 171910 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 310 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT HAS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SATURDAY...PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLS THINGS BACK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AREAS OF CU WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET. THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOME CLOUDINESS AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN REGIONS BY MORNING. THE ADVANCING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG FROM FORMING IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...WITH POCKETS OF DENSE FOG IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 40S THROUGHOUT THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... NORTHERN AREAS WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE AIDED BY UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO SOME OF THEIR COLDEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW 32 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. THEREFORE...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING MINS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... START OF THE PERIOD WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD UNDER ZONAL FLOW AT 850MB - 500MB AS BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT AT THE SURFACE. WAA ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY WARM THINGS UP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT MOSTLY CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP KEEP HI TEMPS FOR SATURDAY SUBDUED. SUNDAY IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE SUMMER AGAIN...AS MODERATE WSW FLOW ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS NEARING 15C ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD PUSH OUR SFC TEMPS INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLUTION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS ALONG WITH GEFS CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE WITH A COLD FRONT AND IT MOVES IT THROUGH THE CWA FAIRLY QUICKLY SUN NIGHT AND MON. WHILE THE 00Z EURO HAS SFC WAVE DEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND THE FRONT GETS HELD UP OVER THE REGION WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A SOAKING RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN INTO TUESDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TUE - WED...INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF ONCE AGAIN. GOOD NEWS IS THAT ALL GUIDANCE IS POINTING AT A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER EASTERN CONUS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD BRING A NICE STRETCH OF WARM AND PLEASANT WEATHER THAT SHOULD AT LEAST LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR VALLEY FOR IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS CAUSING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS FOR HIE AND LEB. LONG TERM...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR VALLEY FOG WHICH WILL BRING LEB AND HIE DOWN TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A PASSING COLD FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS...BUT SOME OFF PERIOD SWELLS COMING IN FROM EDOUARD COULD BRING SEAS TO NEAR 5 FEET. LONG TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AND LASTS INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AND SEAS TO 5 FEET. AFTER SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014. NH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NHZ001>006. MARINE...NONE. && $$

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