Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 191911 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 311 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS TO GRADUALLY CLEAR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ABUNDANT UPSTREAM MOISTURE AND ROBUST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING FREEZING TEMPERATURES RIGHT DOWN TO THE COAST WHERE FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...NORTHERN ZONES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SEND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. SHOULD STILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH AND IN THE 40S NORTH. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK OVER-RUNNING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN WESTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT BUT THESE SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE UPPER LOW WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND SLOWLY SPINS OVER THE AREA BEFORE PULLING OUT ON FRIDAY. FAIR AGREEMENT AMONGST THE COMPUTER MODELS THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY... DRIFTING TOWARD CAPE COD WEDNESDAY... THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY... AND NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE A PRETTY GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FLOWING NORTHWARD... WITH LIFT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAUSING ALL THAT MOISTURE TO BE DEPOSITED AS RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RAIN COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AS BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW COULD BRING SHOWERS. BUT THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH RAIN CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. WITH LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT. OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD A TOTAL OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. IT IS STILL HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL AS PINPOINTING WHERE THE RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP IN A CUT OFF LOW TYPE SCENARIO LIKE THIS IS FAIRLY DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT. BUT IT APPEARS THAT MAINE MIGHT BE HIT A BIT HARDER THAN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH AREAS FROM PORTLAND NORTHWARD SEEING THE MOST RAIN. WITH THIS MUCH RAIN FORECAST... FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY. ALTHOUGH RAIN RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME... THE DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO CAUSE RIVER FLOODING AS STREAMS AND RIVERS SWELL FROM THE PROLONGED RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL FOR HIGHS BUT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... CLOUD COVER... AND PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...CONDITIONS BEGIN DETERIORATING ON TUESDAY TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. SHOULD SEE IFR/LIFR COMMONPLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE. NORTH/WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. LONG TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACKS SLOWLY TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE GULF OF MAINE... NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. WINDS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE IN THE HIGH END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE TO LOW END GALE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN PRODUCING 10 FT WAVES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY FRIDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028. NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ KIMBLE

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