Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 241237 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 837 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure surface and aloft will drift northward across the region today and early tonight. This system will bring unsettled weather with clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms. This weakening system will exit into the Canadian Maritimes tonight. Warmer weather will return on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. The cold front will bring clouds and a few showers and thunderstorms to the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. A ridge of high pressure will build over the area Wednesday night and will hold over the region on Thursday as a warm front approaches from the west. The warm front will stall over the region Thursday night and Friday and will finally push east of the region on Saturday. A cold front will cross the region Saturday night followed by high pressure and dry air to round out the holiday weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 835am...Will make a small update to adjust pops to better reflect the precipitation over southern New Hampshire. Will also make a few minor tweaks to temperatures. 644 AM...for this ESTF update I adjusted near term grids to reflect radar trends and to ingest the latest mesonet. PREV DISC... At 06z...low pressure surface and aloft was centered to the south of Long Island. GOES infrared imagery showed clouds with this system continued to spread northward into the forecast area. For today...the system will continue to drift north with lowering ceilings and showers and a few thunderstorms working into the area as upper low center moves nearly overhead. Highs will range from lower and mid 70s along the international border and Connecticut valley to lower 60s along the coast in strengthening onshore flow. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Convection will wind down from southwest to northeast this evening with partial clearing and areas of fog developing as the system exits into the maritimes. Lows tonight will range from the mid 40s to lower 50s. On Wednesday...much warmer ahead of an approaching shortwave impulse and associated cold front with highs ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s...except for some 60s along the Maine mid coast in onshore flow. A few showers and thunderstorms will develop by afternoon across northern and mountain sections with a few cells possibly reaching southern and coastal sections late in the day. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Any showers will dissipate or move out of the region early Wednesday evening in the wake of a cold front. A dry Wednesday night and Thursday is expected along with warm temperatures. A warm front approaches from the southwest on Friday with an attendant chance of showers and thunderstorms. This warm front looks to move through the region in time for Saturday which should allow for very warm temperatures away from the coast. A short wave trough and attendant cold front will quickly approach from the west Saturday afternoon and should spark another round of showers and thunderstorms. Strong Canadian high pressure will then move in from the north in the wake of the front and clear us out for later Saturday night and Sunday. A cooler and drier airmass will settle in place on Sunday. At this time it looks like the high will remain entrenched over the area to round out the holiday weekend with nice weather on Monday. Thereafter, warming temperatures should once again occur as deep layer ridging builds. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term /through Wednesday/...MVFR/IFR ceilings developing this morning along with a few -shra and -tsra. conditions gradually improve to vfr tonight with areas of mvfr and lcl ifr redeveloping late in stratus and fog. bcmg vfr Wed am with sct mvfr dvlpg during the pm in -shra/-tsra. Long Term...VFR conditions are expected Wed night and Thu except for some late night or early morning valley fog. Lower conditions are possible on Friday as warm front and associated lower clouds and showers move into the area. Mainly VFR is expected on Saturday except for locally lower conditions in showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Wednesday/...outside of ocnl vsby restrictions in precipitation and fog...quiet on the waters as seas and winds should remain below small craft threshold. Long Term...At this time it appears as though no flags will be needed Wed night through this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Scattered showers and thunderstorms and moderate to high relative humidity values will keep fire danger low both today and Wednesday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Pohl

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