Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KGYX 200425
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1225 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016
High pressure will build in from the west tonight and will settle
offshore south of New England on Wednesday. High pressure will
hold south of New England on Thursday. A warm front will approach
from the southwest Thursday night. A cold front will approach on
Friday and move off the coast Saturday morning. High pressure
will build in from the west on Saturday night and Sunday. A warm
front will approach from the southwest Monday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --1222 AM...Minor ESTF update to reflect the 04z mesonet in near
Update...A few changes to the next couple of hours to capture the
latest temp and dewpoint trends.
Previous discussion...Diurnal clouds associated with a cold pool
aloft will gradually clear downwind of the mountains this evening
and overnight. Mostly cloudy skies in the north will give way to
variable clouds after midnight. After a fairly breezy afternoon
expect most area to decouple overnight. This will lead to some
very chilly overnight lows in the north where readings will range
through the 40s. Warmer southern areas will see readings in the
lower to mid 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
High pressure will slide off the coast south of New England on
Wednesday. Should see a mix of sun and clouds in the mountains and
mostly sunny skies elsewhere. Highs will range from the mid 70s
north to the mid 80s in the far south.
Fair conditions will continue Wednesday night as high pressure
remains parked south of New England. Should see a slightly warmer
night as return flow brings somewhat warmer air back into the
region. Lows will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s north and
in the 50s to near 60 south.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models are in fair agreement in the medium range. Thursday looks
like a warm day with dew points rising into the mid to upper 50s.
Fairly comfortable but a warm front will be approaching Thursday
night. Dew points will rise into the mid 60s by Friday morning as
the warm front treks north. Can`t rule out a shower or even an
isolated thunderstorm late Thursday night or Friday morning as the
warm front moves through. Friday will be hot and humid with temps
soaring into the lower 90s from souther NH to York county in
Maine. Dew point temperatures will be close to 70. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop during the day. Some of these may
become severe. Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the
evening. The cold front will pass offshore Saturday morning.
However the air mass will not change appreciably as Saturday will
still see high temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 in southern
New Hampshire and southwest Maine. Dew points should drop into the
lower 60s. A secondary cold front/trough will move through
Saturday afternoon with a chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. high pressure will build in for Saturday night and
Sunday. The models diverge in respect to the timing of fronts
early next week with the GFS bringing a warm front through Sunday
night followed by a cold frontal passage Monday afternoon. The
ECMWF brings a broad area of low pressure in the southwest portion
of the forecast area and moves this system to the southeast as
high pressure to the north suppresses the system.
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...VFR tonight through Wednesday night.
Long Term...Expect VFR Thursday with conditions deteriorating to
MVFR in showers Thursday night. Expect VFR Friday except briefly
IFR/LIFR in showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon. VFR
expected Saturday except briefly MVFR in showers and possible
thunderstorms during the afternoon. VFR Sunday.
Short Term...No flags.
Long Term...SCA winds and seas possible Thursday afternoon through