Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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357 FXUS61 KGYX 200425 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1225 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the west tonight and will settle offshore south of New England on Wednesday. High pressure will hold south of New England on Thursday. A warm front will approach from the southwest Thursday night. A cold front will approach on Friday and move off the coast Saturday morning. High pressure will build in from the west on Saturday night and Sunday. A warm front will approach from the southwest Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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1222 AM...Minor ESTF update to reflect the 04z mesonet in near term grids. Prev Disc... Update...A few changes to the next couple of hours to capture the latest temp and dewpoint trends. Previous discussion...Diurnal clouds associated with a cold pool aloft will gradually clear downwind of the mountains this evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy skies in the north will give way to variable clouds after midnight. After a fairly breezy afternoon expect most area to decouple overnight. This will lead to some very chilly overnight lows in the north where readings will range through the 40s. Warmer southern areas will see readings in the lower to mid 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... High pressure will slide off the coast south of New England on Wednesday. Should see a mix of sun and clouds in the mountains and mostly sunny skies elsewhere. Highs will range from the mid 70s north to the mid 80s in the far south. Fair conditions will continue Wednesday night as high pressure remains parked south of New England. Should see a slightly warmer night as return flow brings somewhat warmer air back into the region. Lows will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s north and in the 50s to near 60 south. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Models are in fair agreement in the medium range. Thursday looks like a warm day with dew points rising into the mid to upper 50s. Fairly comfortable but a warm front will be approaching Thursday night. Dew points will rise into the mid 60s by Friday morning as the warm front treks north. Can`t rule out a shower or even an isolated thunderstorm late Thursday night or Friday morning as the warm front moves through. Friday will be hot and humid with temps soaring into the lower 90s from souther NH to York county in Maine. Dew point temperatures will be close to 70. Showers and thunderstorms will develop during the day. Some of these may become severe. Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening. The cold front will pass offshore Saturday morning. However the air mass will not change appreciably as Saturday will still see high temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 in southern New Hampshire and southwest Maine. Dew points should drop into the lower 60s. A secondary cold front/trough will move through Saturday afternoon with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. high pressure will build in for Saturday night and Sunday. The models diverge in respect to the timing of fronts early next week with the GFS bringing a warm front through Sunday night followed by a cold frontal passage Monday afternoon. The ECMWF brings a broad area of low pressure in the southwest portion of the forecast area and moves this system to the southeast as high pressure to the north suppresses the system. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term...VFR tonight through Wednesday night. Long Term...Expect VFR Thursday with conditions deteriorating to MVFR in showers Thursday night. Expect VFR Friday except briefly IFR/LIFR in showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon. VFR expected Saturday except briefly MVFR in showers and possible thunderstorms during the afternoon. VFR Sunday. && .MARINE... Short Term...No flags. Long Term...SCA winds and seas possible Thursday afternoon through Saturday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ ES

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