Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 160440 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1240 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THEN STAYS TO OUR NORTH WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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UPDATED TO DROP MENTION OF ANY -SHRA N/MT ZONES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN BROUGHT BACK ISOLD/SCT -SHRA FOR THE REST OF THE NGT BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND WITH UPPER LVL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NE WITH A SHORT WAVE TROF ROTATING AROUND IT THRU THE FCST AREA LATER TNGT. ADJUSTED SKY COVER A BIT PER SATELLITE LOOP. OTRW NO REAL CHANGES. ENOUGH CLOUDS AROUND SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY, FOG OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT LOWS OF 45 TO 55...COLDEST N AND WARMEST NEAR THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE INSTABILITY CREATED BY DIURNAL HEATING. AGAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN WESTERN AREAS AND THE MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEINGS SUNDAY WITH A LONG WAVE PATTERN COMPRISED OF A 500MB CLOSED LOW NESTLED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND A STRENGTHENING HIGH OVER LOW BLOCK JUST EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THIS UPPER LOW IS ABLE TO PROGRESS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE BEING STOPPED BY THE ATLANTIC BLOCKING PATTERN OVER ICELAND. THIS RESULTS OF THIS PATTERN IS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND SHOWERS. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. DESPITE THE UPPER LOW, IT IS STILL AUGUST AND SURFACE HEATING REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO DRIVE PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL DUE TO THE LOW FREEZING LEVEL. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IS LESS CLEAR... WITH NO WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES AT THIS TIME COLD HEIGHTS ALOFT MAY STILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THIS BLOCK MID WEEK AND ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM TEMPERATURE TO SURGE BACK INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US BY THE END OF THE WEEK.... AS WITH ALL BLOCKS I REGARD THE PATTERN SHIFT WITH A HEALTHY DEGREE OF SKEPTICISM AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE START OF WEEK STATUS QUO OF HIGHS IN THE 70S AS OPPOSED TO THE MORE ASPIRATIONAL MODELS 80S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH BRIEFLY LOWERING TO MVFR IN ANY -SHRA MAINLY ACROSS THE N/MT ZONES IMPACTING HIE TAF. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BASED ON LATEST BUOY REPORTS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN SCA. HAVE ADJUSTED SEAS DOWN OVER THE BAYS OVERNIGHT PER BUOY REPORTS. OVERALL THRU THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. LONG TERM... QUIET WATERS THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS ANY MAJOR STORMS REMAIN WELL OUT TO SEA.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

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