Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 141645 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1145 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the region today and will crest over the area on Monday. Low pressure will approach from the west Monday night and will weaken as it moves in the region on Tuesday. Low pressure will shift offshore Tuesday night and Wednesday as high pressure noses in from the southwest. A warm front will approach from the west Wednesday night and will push east through the region on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1145 AM Update... Temperatures will continue to struggle this afternoon with readings only climbing through the single numbers over northern areas. The very cold readings will occur despite nearly full sunshine. Some high cloudiness will occasionally cross over the coast this afternoon, however much of this is thin. A very cold night expected tonight with very cold readings that are still well below zero to our north and west. Expecting mins of 10 to 20 below in the mountains overnight. Possible isolated snow showers near the coast on Monday. Most will remain offshore, however a couple flurries associated with a weak inverted trough are not out of the question for the immediate shoreline. Prev Disc...High pressure building in from the west early this morning will produce a mostly sunny Sunday across northern New England. Shallow low level moisture over the Connecticut Valley and northern sections of Maine and New Hampshire will gradually diminish through daybreak. Despite the sun...high temperatures will average out below normal with readings only in the teens in the north and lower to mid 20s in the south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... High pressure will crest over the region tonight. Clear skies and light winds will allow for overnight lows well below normal. Looking for lows of 10 to 20 below north and zero to 10 below south. Fair weather will continue on Monday as high pressure holds over the region. Looking for sunshine through variable high clouds. Not expecting much change in high temperatures from Sunday with much of the region only reaching the mid teens to lower 20s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... At 500 MB over NOAM, models continue to show a breakdown of the ridge over the west coast, and trend for ridging over the ern CONUS and wrn Atlantic. Will have to deal with troughing over central NOAM shifting its way NE across New England around mid-week, but after that there`s some confidence for a warming trend by next weekend. Initially will se coastal track N well off shore, which could spill some clouds across the area Mon night, but will also set up a NE flow, which given cold air place may produce some ocean snow. This is low confidence at this point,a looks like it would not last long, mainly Mon evening, and best chance would be coastal areas south of PWM. That passing low could also bring a few flurries or SHSN to the mid-coast. Low will fall to around zero in the mountains to 10 to 15 above along the coast and in srn NH, although temps may reach their mins earlier in the night and steady out later. Tuesday will see increasing clouds as WAA develops ahead of the next system. Could see some SHN or light snow late in the day, especially across NH, but sfc air mass stays dry into Tue evening, so any snow will have a hard time reaching the ground into Tue afternoon. Highs Tue will rebound a bit reaching into the 20s. Models are coming into better agreement that next system will affect the CWA mainly Tue night into Wed. The operational 00Z Euro still produces a moderately robust system that passes closest to the coast, the GFS is of similar strength but further offshore, and the NAM12 produces the weakest wave of all, which would bring very little QPF to the CWA. At this point, thinking some snow, and it will be all snow, is expected, and there`s some confidence that it could be advisory level, especially across the coastal plain and in the srn half of NH, but the run-to-run trend has been lower, so may be on the lower end. The system should be clear of the CWA Wed evening, with colder air moving in behind it, but producing slightly below normal Thu, with temps pushing to near normal Friday, as ridging slowly builds to our south. Should be dry through this period with only some mtn snow showers possible Wed night into Thu. The weekend continues to look mainly dry with temps pushing above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term...VFR today through Monday. Long Term...VFR Mom night into Tue. Some flight restrictions developing late in the day Tue or Tue evening across NH on snow as next system approaches. All terminals should drop to IFR after midnight Tue in snow, which will linger through at least midday Wed. Expect a return to VFR Wed night into Thu. && .MARINE... Short Term...Have raised SCAs. Winds running just below criteria with 10 to 20 kt, but waves remain in the 3 to 6 foot range. Long Term...Winds should stay below SCA Mon night through Thu, but a strong offshore storm could push swells to 5-6 ft Mon night into Tue. && .HYDROLOGY... There are still Ice jams on many rivers in New Hampshire and Maine. However, we are beginning to see the last of the water from rain and snowmelt of the last few days and overall flows are declining. This has lowered some rivers below flood stage despite the ice jams, and lowers the threat for flooding. With very cold temperatures expected for a few days, some ice jams may freeze in place, and water will continue to run high in these areas. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Monday for ANZ150-152-154. && $$ JC

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