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000
FXUS61 KGYX 140715
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
315 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL CREST OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE QUICKLY CAUGHT UP BY A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OUT
OF QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE
REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOME RELATIVELY HIGH MID LEVEL RH WILL STICK AROUND AND
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER TODAY THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER AT MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE CANCELLED THE FROST
ADVISORY FOR EARLY THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS AND SOME WIND HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES UP IN THE ADVISED AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WILL BE
QUITE COLD. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AT THIS TIME AS MIN TEMPS LOOK A BIT MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.
PATCHY FROST IS LIKELY ON THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IN A
WIDESPREAD FROST IS LOW.

WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN GETS UNDERWAY IN EARNEST ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY BY LATE IN THE DAY FROM WEST
TO EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL SWING A TRAILING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING BUT SHOULD BE A QUICK SHOT WITH SHOWERS
PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. EXPECT CLEARING
DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA ON THURSDAY WILL SWING A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. LACK OF MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN JUST VARIABLE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
NORTHERN ZONES REMAINING CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS. DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD JUST SEE
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING FOR MOST AREAS TO BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY LOOKING FAIR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST. WILL SEE SLIGHTLY MODERATING TEMPS ON
SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERN ZONES ENJOYING UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. EXPECT
HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S IN THE NORTH.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP BETWEEN MODELS FOR SUNDAY
AND BEYOND SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE HEADS SOUTH FOR THE SUNDAY/MONDAY
TIME FRAME. RETURN FLOW WILL SEND WARMER AIR BACK TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST BUT SEEING VERY LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE
GFS...SO TIMING AND EXTENT OF ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIP STILL IN
QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
SEABREEZE MAY KNOCK ON THE DOORSTEP AT PWM AND PSM...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IT/S PASSAGE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. SEABREEZE IS
LIKELY AT RKD. ON WEDNESDAY...VFR IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH LOWERING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR SEAS FOR ANZ150 FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE...SUBSIDING SEAS AND LIGHTER WINDS TODAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES BY LATE WEDNESDAY POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
DEVELOPING SCA CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...SCA TO MINIMAL GALES LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCA`S
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW RH VALUES EXPECTED TODAY...WITH MINS AROUND 20
PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN Y/DAY IN THE MIDST
OUR YEARLY GREENUP. WETTING RAINS LIKELY ARRIVE BY LATE WED
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ023>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ150.

&&

$$