Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 131227 AAA AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 827 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A blocking upper ridge of high pressure keeps New England under a mostly clear sky with warm temperatures for the next few days. Increasing moisture associated with the remnants of Hurricane Irma will move into the region late in the week and into the weekend, generating a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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825 am Update: Matched early morning observations and lowered wave heights over the Gulf of Maine this morning given early morning buoy observations. Otherwise...a clear/quiet morning outside of valley fog over the CT River which is beginning to slowly burn off. 7 am Update: Fog has formed in the CT River Valley otherwise clear skies elsewhere under the ridge of high pressure. Input latest obs data. No changes needed at this time. Previous Discussion: The blocking surface and upper ridge of high pressure remains over the region so another mostly sunny and warm day. Some high clouds may spill through the ridge at times over southern areas. Stayed close to a blend of guidance temps.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Tonight will be mostly clear but mid/high clouds well in advance of the remnants of IRMA over the midwest will spill through the upper ridge axis over the region later tonight. Saw no reason not to accept min temps from guidance. On Thursday the upper system over the Ohio Valley (Remnants of IRMA) begins to drift east spreading more clouds and scattered showers into southern and central areas of NH and southern areas of ME. Temps will once again be mild with increasing humidity levels. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Moisture from the remnants of Irma will interact with daytime heating to produce shower and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. Near zonal flow will be in place on Saturday with a trend towards large scale troughing in the western and central CONUS. As this occurs weak ridging will develop over the northeast as a large scale trough rides on top of it. In the meantime Jose will travel up the eastern seaboard and transport moisture northward. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be the result. A cold front will push through the region in the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame with high pressure dominating the rest of the work week. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs in the 70s and lows in the mid 50s to the lower 60s. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term...VFR through Thursday except for areas of fog along the CT River Valley 06z-13z early this morning and again later tonight into early Thursday. Long Term...VFR conditions likely to dominate through next Monday outside of daily occurrences of morning fog at LEB/HIE. There may be a few showers around in the afternoons on Thursday-Saturday which may bring some isolated restrictions. && .MARINE... Short Term...Light gradient winds will keep winds and seas well below SCA conditions. Long Term....Very quiet on the waters through the end of the week as a very weak low associated with the remnants of Irma approach from the south and west. A high pressure ridge axis builds back over the waters this weekend into early next week. Could see some increasing swell due to Jose early next week...but confidence in this is rather low. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Arnott/Marine SHORT TERM...Marine LONG TERM...Hanes AVIATION... MARINE...

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