Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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892 FXUS61 KGYX 222356 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 756 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will weaken south of Nova Scotia overnight as another area of low pressure develops off the mid atlantic coast. Low pressure will slowly move north up the east coast Monday through Tuesday and will move into southeast Quebec Tuesday night. A trailing cold front will slowly cross the region Wednesday through Wednesday night and will stall over southern New England Thursday. High pressure will build in from the northeast Thursday night through Friday and will hold over the region through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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8pm...Precipitation has come to an end across most of the area. clouds will also start to dissipate overnight. Have added some fog after midnight for the favored valley locations as clearing skies and low level moisture from the earlier showers combine. 5pm... lightning has come to an end as the stronger showers fade with the sun. Have updated for current temps and removed thunder wording. Low pressure moving east of Cape Cod this afternoon is generating some precipitation... but the vast majority of it is well offshore. However... a weak frontal boundary dropping south out of Canada is providing a focus for convection over the mountains. Most of the convection is in the form of showers... but there have been a few lightning strikes with it as well. Convection is primarily driven by diurnal heating and should fall apart quickly this evening as the sun sets.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Upper level trough in place over New England tomorrow and tomorrow night. Another low pressure system is expected to form off the mid-Atlantic coast on Monday and begin moving north and east. Again though... it looks like the low will stay far enough to our east to not really generate much in the way of precipitation over our area. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low pressure south of Cape Cod Tuesday morning will slowly shift north into the Gulf of Maine by evening. Moist onshore flow will have much of the coast socked in with ocean stratus by daybreak and this will overspread most of the forecast area during the day. Little in the way of lift with this system so only looking for scattered showers and areas of drizzle...especially in coastal zones. May see enough instability in far northwest zones and the Connecticut valley to pop off a thunderstorm or two but a majority of this activity will likely be north of the border. Will see more seasonable temps with highs generally ranging through the 60s. Surface low will slowly continue northward Tuesday night ending up in southeast quebec by Wednesday morning. Expect the majority of the region to see a dry night although a few scattered showers will be possible. Stationary front to the northwest of the region will gradually sag south into the region Wednesday. Some marginal instability will develop by early afternoon but with little in the way of forcing along this boundary...not looking for anything too widespread in the way of convection. Highs on Wednesday will push well above normal with highs ranging through the 70s to lower 80s in southern New Hampshire. Frontal boundary will push south of the region Wednesday night with skies gradually clearing overnight. Lows will range through the 50s from north to south. High pressure building in from the west will produce mostly sunny skies on Thursday. Temps will soar well above normal with readings from the mid 70s north to the mid 80s south. Afternoon sea breeze will cap temps along the coast in the 70s. Re-enforcing shot of high pressure noses in from the northeast Thursday night. Increasing moist onshore flow may result in some ocean stratus in coastal zones by Friday morning but the remainder of the forecast area should see just partly cloudy skies. Expect a mild night with lows in the 50s. Any ocean stratus in southern zones friday morning should burn off through early afternoon as high pressure continues to build in from the northeast. Marine layer will hold high temps in the 60s across much of western Maine with the exception of counties bordering New Hampshire. Farther west readings will top out in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Expect high pressure to hold over the region Friday night and Saturday with moist onshore flow gradually veering to the southwest as upper level ridging builds over the northeast. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term...Primarily VFR this evening... with some MVFR conditions possible over northern and western portions of New Hampshire in showers. All locations should go VFR tonight for at least a while. However... there could be some IFR fog that develops in favored valley locations. All locations should be VFR tomorrow. Long Term...ifr/lifr ceilings/vsby Tuesday into tuesday night. VFR Wednesday through Thursday. Areas of mvfr ceilings Friday morning in coastal areas...becoming VFR in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Short Term...Offshore low pressure system is expected to generate waves and swells that meet Small Craft Advisory criteria tonight. This should mainly affect the outer waters... while the bays should stay below SCA criteria. Long Term...no problems noted. && .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather concerns expected. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Cempa SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE... FIRE WEATHER...

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