Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 221943
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
343 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFF THE
COAST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK EAST ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LARGE AREA OF CWA CURRENTLY IN WARM SECTOR WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUN AND TEMPS AWAY FROM FROM THE COAST CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S. ONE CLUSTER OF WEAK TSRA HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MASS...JUST S
OF THE NH BORDER. THIS MAY CLIP THE BORDER AREA OF NH THRU ABOUT
6 PM.

A BROKEN BAND OF SHRA...MAYBE A TSRA WILL MOVE INTO WRN NH AROUND
SUNSET AND CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK
OFF QPF WITH THIS LINE WHICH LOOKS SCT...AS WAVE ALOFT SHEARS OUT.
MODELS ARE TRENDING TO DEVELOPING A WEAK LOW ALONG THE FRONT OVER
SRN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL SLOW THE PROGRESS OF
THE FRONT AND WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHRA ACROSS COASTAL ME AND
SRN NH THRU TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF ANY RAIN WITH THIS
FEATURE...STAYS SOUTH OF THE CWA. TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
40S AND LOW 50S AND WILL LIKELY SEE MOST OF THAT DROP LATE THIS
EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY ON SATURDAY...BUT MAY SEE SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH AS SEVERAL WAYS SLOW ITS
PROGRESS...BUT ANY RAIN SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...WITH A GENERAL CLEARING TREND THRU THE DAY. WILL SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS IN NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TDS. THIS HAS PROMPTED A FIRE WX WATCH FOR SRN/CTL NH AND SW ME
WITH RH DROPPING TO 25-30 PERCENT AND WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 25 OR 30 MPH. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION FOR MORE. HIGHS ON SAT
RANGE FROM AROUND 50 IN THE N...TO LOW-MID 60S IN THE S.

SAT NIGHT WILL SEE DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...AND THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RAD COOLING. NW BOUNDARY LYR FLOW SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING LIKE A ROCK IN MOST SPOTS. LOOK FOR
LOWS MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE MTNS AND LOW-MID 30S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD SUNDAY. SO A FINE
DAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE QUITE LOW IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT
RANGE MOSTLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. SUNDAY
NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH. GFS AN ECMWF DIFFER AS TO THE
OUTCOME OF THIS FRONT. BOTH MODELS STALL THE FRONT BUT GFS HAS
MORE PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. THE ECMWF PUSHES THIS WEATHER
FARTHER SOUTH INTO MASS.. CT... AND RI. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE
FUTURE MODEL RUNS BUT RIGHT NOW I HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
IN SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHWEST MAINE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. THE GFS BEING FARTHER NORTH AND
MORE ROBUST WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY SHRA DO OCCUR...BUT OVERALL
EXPECTED MAINLY VFR WITH SOME SCT SHRA...AND MAYBE A TSRA LATE
TODAY THIS EVE IN NH. VFR PERSIST SAT AND SAT NIGHT. NW WINDS WILL
GUST 20-25 KTS SAT AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY. IFR POSSIBLE AT MHT/CON/LEB/PSM TUES
WITH MVFR AT PWM/AUG/RKD/HIE THIS DEPENDS ON WHERE THE COLD FRONT
STALLS. VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA LATE SAT AND SAT
NIGHT...BUT LOOK TO MAINLY STAY BELOW AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...WINDS MAY APPROACH 25KT SUNDAY MORNING OTHERWISE WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR CENTRAL/SRN NH AND SW ME.
METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDS LOOK BORDERLINE AT THIS POINT WITH
RH FALLING INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE IN THE WATCH AREA AND NW
WIND 10-2O MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. RAINFALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN
OVERNIGHT...BUT IT LOOKS SPOTTY AT BEST AND OVERALL WILL NOT SEE
WETTING RAINS WITH ONLY ONE OR TENTHS OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ012-018-019-023-024.
NH...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ003>015.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
CEMPA/HAWLEY



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