Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 192027 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 327 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOW SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND... WITH A WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... REMAINING MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO RECORD SETTING SNOWBANDS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE IN NORTHERNMOST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AS FLOW BACKS FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE REPLACTED BY ADVANCING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY DRY...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT WARM AIR ADVECTION LATER TONIGHT TO CONTINUE TO TRIGGER A FEW MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE N/MOUNTAINS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH MESOSCALE MODEL RUNS FROM THE 12Z SUITE. INSOLATION FROM THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF FOR THE 2ND PART OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLIP ACROSS THE CANADIAN/US BORDER NEAR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO TRIGGER SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE 3RD PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (THURSDAY NIGHT)....SETTING THE STAGE FOR TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH A LARGE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BRINGING COLD TEMPS TO THE REGION. WHILE 850MB TEMPS START OFF AT -15C ON FRIDAY... THEY WARM SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY BEGINS WITH A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THAT SAME FLOW WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS UP TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS.... WITHOUT MUCH DECREASE UNTIL WE FINALLY START TO SEE THE WAA KICK IN SATURDAY MORNING. OVER LAND... THE CLEAR SKIES WILL WORK IN OUR FAVOR... ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE AS A NIGHTTIME INVERSION SETS UP AND GENERALLY DECREASING THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS OVER LAND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH PASSES OFF SHORE FLOW SHIFTS AROUND TO THE SOUTH FINALLY BRINGING IN SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY NIGHT... AND DECREASING THE WINDS. SUNDAY WILL SEE THE REGION SOLIDLY IN THE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH.... RESULTING IN WARM TEMPERATURES BUT A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MOVES NORTHEAST INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH A FAIRLY LARGE AND CLASSIC MID LATITUDE CYCLONE... THE WARM FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY MORNING... AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM SECTOR LOOKS TO PUT TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY INTO THE UPPER 50S BY THE END OF THE DAY. TEMPS THAT WARM ARE TOO GOOD TO LAST AND THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY RETURNING US TO OUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED EARLY WINTER TEMPERATURES. THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN AN LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS BACK INTO PLACE. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR CERTAINLY HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT MOST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO AGREE ON THE EXISTENCE OF THE FEATURES WHICH IS ABOUT AS GOOD AS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THIS LONG A TIME RANGE. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING STORM WILL DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE IFR RAIN ON MONDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCAS WILL GO UP ONCE AGAIN DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM... FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE WINDY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS. GUSTS APPROACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CANNON/CURTIS NEAR TERM...CANNON SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM...CURTIS AVIATION...CANNON/CURTIS MARINE...CANNON/CURTIS

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