Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 162126 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 525 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE EAST COAST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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525 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. ADJUSTED POP TIMING A LITTLE BIT. DID NOT TAKE DOWN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHWESTERNMOST NH EVEN THOUGH PRECIP HAS ENDED AS A REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...ALREADY HAVE A FEW REPORTS OF 2.5-3.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NH. PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...INCLUDING VIA OUR FACEBOOK AND/OR TWITTER PAGES. PREVIOUSLY... NARROW BUT LONG THETA-E RICH PLUME OF AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE CWA FROM SE TO NW. THIS AIR MASS HAS ORIGINS IN THE TROPICS AND IT/S SHOWING IT WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES IN NEW HAMPSHIRE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN PARTS OF GRAFTON COUNTY WITH AN INCH OR TWO MORE LIKELY. THIS PLUME OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE THINK MOST FOLKS WILL SEE 2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. HOWEVER...SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND MAINE FOOTHILLS WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY GETTING UPWARDS OF 4 INCHES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN COOS COUNTY WHERE SHADOWING IS EXPECTED TO TEMPER AMOUNTS. AT LEAST ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...IT COULD OCCUR ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AS WELL WHERE BANDS OF RAIN SET UP. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CLEAR MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH OUR MIDCOAST MAINE ZONES AROUND DAWN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...SHOULD BE A NICE WARM DAY MOST LOCATIONS. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL SWING IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY...MAINLY IN NORTHWEST ZONES. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS. DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. WILL SEE A CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ZONES. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS UP. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH. SUNDAY LOOKING COOL AND BLUSTERY AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH. VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 50S. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THICKENING CLOUDS WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. WILL LIKELY INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT EXPECT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS NORTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY. WILL AGAIN SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND AND SOUTHWEST MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SEEING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...LIFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN HEAVY RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAINING VFR FRIDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS SATURDAY. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS/SWELLS OVER 5 FT. LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && .HYDROLOGY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT NORTHERN COOS COUNTY. A GENERAL 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014- 018>028. NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ002>010-013-014. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ NEAR/SHORT TERM...MLE

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