Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KGYX 262041 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 341 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. && .NEAR AND SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT AND INCREASED MOISTURE. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST TONIGHT AND WE SHOULD HAVE SNOW SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE OVERNIGHT. IN FACT SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK IN THESE LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES TUMBLE IN THE NORTH TONIGHT AS COLD AIR IS PULLED TOWARDS THE APPROACHING STORM. OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL OR BETTER. NEW NAM AND GFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY... HOWEVER THE EUROPEAN... WHICH GENERALLY HANDLES WINTER STORMS VERY WELL... IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN WHICH INCREASES THE QPF AND WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE OUR REGION. THE EUROPEAN GETS CAUGHT IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH TILTS NEGATIVELY AND NOT ONLY STALLS BUT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON... MEANDERING AROUND THE BENCHMARK... AND DEEPENING SLIGHTLY MORE THAN THE OTHER MODELS AS IT DOES SO. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE WIND FIELDS REMAIN VERY IMPRESSIVE. CURRENTLY THE STORM IS LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND IS AROUND 998 MB. WINDS ARE LOOKING NORTHERLY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EVENT NOW AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND IS PULLED CLOSER TO THE COAST. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN EYE FEATURE SIMILAR TO A HURRICANE... WHICH ARE PROMINENT ON STRONG MID LATITUDE CYCLONES. IN ADDITION THE MAIN BANDING FEATURE(S) SHOULD BE ORIENTED SSW TO NNE... FROM NEAR PORTSMOUTH NH TO LEWISTON ME TO HARMONY ME EVENTUALLY AS THEY ROTATES ONSHORE. DUE TO THE ABOVE MODEL CHANGES AND THE BANDING FEATURES MENTIONED... SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE NO WHOLESALE CHANGES... AND HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME EXCEPT FOR UPGRADING THE COASTAL STORM WATCHES TO WARNINGS. K INDICES INCREASE TO NEAR 20 ALONG CAPE COD AND DOWNEAST INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY. THE EXIT SPEED WILL BE MODEL DETERMINANT...HOWEVER THE EURO IS THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE AND STALLS OVER NANTUCKET BEFORE SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW. ON FRIDAY...CYCLOGENSIS OCCURS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS. THE EURO SOLUTION REMAINS VERY INTERESTING...WITH LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENING IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS COULD BE AN INTERESTING EVENT AS WELL IF THE SYSTEM CUTS OFF SOON ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR POURS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY TONIGHT TO MVFR AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS FAR NORTH AS A KLEB TO KAUG LINE ARE LIKELY BY 12Z...CREATING LIFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. ALL TERMINALS WILL DROP TO THESE LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LONG TERM... CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY...IFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FRIDAY IN ANOTHER COASTAL LOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 25`. LONG TERM... WINDS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS MAY RETURN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL BE BUILDING LATE TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND HIGH TIDE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A TWO FOOT STORM SURGE WILL ALLOW PORTLAND AND HAMPTON TO REACH THEIR FLOOD STAGE. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE. THIS IS VERY MODEL DEPENDENT HOWEVER WITH THE EURO DANGEROUSLY BACKING IN THE STORM TO NANTUCKET ISLAND. USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO TUESDAY HIGH TIDES. THE OUTPUT SHOWS WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS OVERWASH AT FORTUNES ROCKS...JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS AND FERRY BEACHES IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. NERACOOS SPLASH-OVER NOMOGRAMS AS ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ISSUES AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR THE BEACHES SOUTH OF PORTLAND.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014. BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>028. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ025>028. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ023- 024. NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ002>009-011-015. BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ010-012>014. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ014. MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ HANES/CANNON

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.