Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 160249 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1049 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH [PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HOLD OFF THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 1040 PM...I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...AS WELL AS INGESTING 02Z MESONET. I ALSO ADDED MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS TO MOUNTAIN SUMMITS ABOVE 4THSD FEET FOR THE OVERNIGHT. PREV DISC... 705 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET INTO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS. PREV DISC... COLD FNT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUR WAY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. INITIALLY THIS EVENING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY. THESE WILL STABILIZE AS CLOUDS MOVE OVERHEAD. EXPECT ANY RAIN TO DELAY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...FORCING IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND I DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE LACK OF THICK CLOUD COVER AND STEADY PCPN WILL ALLOW DOWNSLOPE SWLY WINDS TO ACTUALLY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS AOA TODAY. THE REMAINING SHRA CLEAR FROM W TO E TUE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CLEARING OCCURRING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FROPA...SO HAVE INCLUDED THIS TREND IN THE FORECAST. NEXT FNT AND STRONGER SHOT OF COLD AIR APPROACHES TUE NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD FROST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VERY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS WEAK COLD FRONTS PASS THROUGH THE REGION. BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA WITH PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE YEAR. TEMPERATURES AT H850 WILL BE FROM ZERO TO -4C BY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...THIS POTENTIALLY WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE YEAR SO FAR. OTHERWISE...12Z MODEL SUITE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...WITH A RELATIVE DRY TREND CONTINUING. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...COLD FNT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH SCT TO LIKELY SHOWERS. HOWEVER...FORCING IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...AND WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR TUE BEHIND THE FNT. LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...LATE TUE NIGHT SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS WILL PASSAGE OF COLD FNT. HOWEVER...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. LONG TERM...NO FLAGS. HOWEVER...COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SCHWIBS

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