Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 011903 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 303 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AND LIFTS NORTH TOMORROW MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY. SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOW DRIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF NH AND THESE WILL BE TYPICAL OF THE CONVECTION WE WILL SEE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER NH AND SW MAINE IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS A WARM FRONT NEARS FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT OTHER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NH AND WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS UPPER TROUGH NEARS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DARK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT SPOTS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND IN SPOTS THAT GET A HEAVY SHOWER TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... THE WARM FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUT WILL BE NEAR ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. ELSEWHERE...OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND CONTINUED SPOKES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. INLAND AREAS WILL HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT INCREASED PWATS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN EVERYWHERE. HIGHS REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH THE WARMEST READINGS INLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY DIES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ANY REMAINING SHRA FROM WEAK COASTAL WAVE WILL QUICKLY END SUN MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN...WITH MEAN TROFFING TO OUR W. THIS COMBINATION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE BROAD SW FLOW THRU THE COLUMN WILL PROMOTE WARM TEMPS...WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY. AS A RESULT EACH AFTERNOON...PEAK HEATING SHOULD YIELD SCT TSTMS. THESE WILL MAINLY BE TIED TO THE TERRAIN HEATING IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION WED OR THU...WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED THREAT FOR CONVECTION. FORCING WILL BE STRONGER...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FRONTAL TIMING ALONG WITH ADVECTION OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM THE W. IF WE CAN GET SOME NEAR 7 C/KM LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THERE WOULD BE A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS FROPA. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT NEARS FROM THE SOUTH. MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE AT LEAST BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN FOG WITH MOUNTAIN TERMINALS AND ANYWHERE RECEIVING RAIN THIS EVENING THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURNING THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED. BROAD SW FLOW WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSTMS MOST DAYS...WITH LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ HANES/LEGRO

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