Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 180042 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
842 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WILL REDEVELOP
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED
RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE CLOUD COVER WORKS BACK INTO THE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTION OVERNIGHT AS ONE
FRONT PUSHES EAST AND ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE
VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG BEFORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT PUSH IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND OCEAN STRATUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH
TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE...POTENT S/WV TROF SWINGING THRU THE GREAT LAKES ATTM WILL
DRIVE A COLD FNT THRU NRN NEW ENGLAND SAT. HAVE BLENDED SOME OF
THE HI-RES GUIDANCE...INCLUDING WRF ARW...TO SHARPEN THE TIMING OF
POP THRU THE AREA. EXPECTING A NARROW AREA OF FORCING...LIKELY A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS...TO CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FOCUSED LIKELY POP DURING THIS TIME...AS WELL AS IN THE MTNS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY. EXPECT PRECIP TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 60S.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PUMP IN SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE
SEASON. WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING AS
FAR THEY MIGHT WITH READINGS BOTTOMING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT EXITING THE COAST.
WE`LL SEE INSTABILITY CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH
SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR SOUTH.
SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT THIS FALL...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH SOME TEENS FOR THE NORMALLY COLDER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY...AS
THE NEXT IMPULSE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CARVES
OUT AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS LOW THEN
MEANDERS NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE BEING KICKED OUT
INTO THE MARITIMES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF MFR/IFR CEILINGS ON SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR
SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...

SUN...SCT MVFR PSBL IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
      NW SFC WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT.

TUE NIGHT - WED...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...

SUN - MON...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY.
 GUSTS TO NR GALE PSBL OUTSIDE THE BAYS SUN PM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



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