Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 281054
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
654 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A GOOD
SOAKING RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA. THE LOW WILL MOVE
AWAY ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY ONCE AGAIN AFFECT NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES...HAS OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE ALSO
INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS WELL. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST
AND HEADLINES REMAIN ON TRACK.

PREVIOUSLY...

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AS OF 07Z WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY. STRONG EASTERLY INFLOW
JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES...PARTICULARLY THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
HAVE RETAINED THE FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AS MOIST
UPSLOPE SHOULD WRING OUT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...A
1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF THE FLOOD WATCH
AREA...SOME MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR BUT
THE CURRENT SPEED OF THE SYSTEM DOESN/T WARRANT AN EXPANSION OF
THE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY ON THE COAST WHERE
PEAK GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREE BRANCHES AND RESULTANT POWER
OUTAGES.

THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS WELL FOR LARGE
BREAKERS AT THE BEACH. RIP CURRENTS SHOULD BE STRONG.

THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AND MID LEVEL
FORCING MECHANISM ADVANCES NORTHWARD. STILL...SHOWERS AND
WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE EARLY ON TONIGHT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO DRYING
CONDITIONS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES SLOWLY INTO QUEBEC MONDAY. WHILE WE CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM TIME TO TIME...WE SHOULD DRY
OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY FOUND
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH WEAK RIDING ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
BRINGS LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACKS
TO OUR SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER IN RAIN EXPECTED TODAY WITH SFC WINDS
GUSTING TO 35 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS TODAY. IMPROVEMENT IS
FORESEEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...

WED...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRI NIGHT - SAT...SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...AN ANOMALOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS NEW
ENGLAND TODAY...WITH STRONG EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING AND PEAKING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GALES
IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ALL
COASTAL ZONES...INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SUBSIDING WIND AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...

WED...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023>028.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ014.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NHZ001>005.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS


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