Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KGYX 262158
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
558 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING. COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THEN SETTLES IN THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
6 PM UPDATE...HAVE TOUCHED UP THE FORECAST A LITTLE BIT BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM
THE NORTH AS WE CONTINUE TO DRY OUT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY GROUND FOG TONIGHT IN AREAS WITH SNOW COVER.

PREVIOUSLY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE FAST MOVING CLIPPER THAT PRODUCED
THE WINTRY WEATHER NOW RAPIDLY EXITING TO THE EAST. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE COAST BY NO
LATER THAN 21Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODELS. THIS EVENING SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH A COLD NIGHT
EXPECTED WITH LOWS DROPPING TO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON A COLD AND DRY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THAT WILL PERSIST WED AND WED NIGHT DRAWING DOWN MORE COLD
CANADIAN AIR. THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST. USED A
BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM
CANADA ON THURSDAY. THIS WEAK RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BRING
A SHOWER OR A FLURRY...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE BY MONDAY...WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS BEING THE
FASTEST AND MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH A SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE GEFS AND
EURO IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM...HANGING LOW PRESSURE WELL
BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH THE EURO BEING THE SLOWEST.

WITH THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING BY JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...AND SUCH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER OUR
AREA...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR WHERE THE PRECIP
SETS UP IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE RAPIDLY IMPROVING TO
VFR AFTER 22Z. BY LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH WED MAINLY VFR
CLR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ON MONDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR FOR A PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS AND WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SEAS AND WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY INCREASE
BY MONDAY WITH THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE INTO THE SCA RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVENT RH VALUES FROM DROPPING TO CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR ANY RED FLAG CONDITIONS EVEN THOUGH THE NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY REACH THE 10-20 MPH RANGE IN SOME GUSTS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.