Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 260151
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
951 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY
CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS. A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
COULD PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS INTO NORTHERN MAINE ON TUESDAY BUT
WASH OUT BEFORE IT MAKES TO CENTRAL MAINE. THIS FRONT COULD ONCE
AGAIN SET OFF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SETTLE IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT COULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
950 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BEFORE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT.

6 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO BE
DRY THIS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE
THIS EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD AID IN INCREASING SHOWER
COVERAGE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST LATE TONIGHT AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICES SUPPORT IT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING
ALONG WITH SOME FOG.

PREVIOUSLY...

ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL QUICKLY BRING
OCEAN STRATUS BACK INTO SOUTHERN MAINE AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE
THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT....
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE AREAS OF FOG...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. EXPECT MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE AND
SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE TO SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. SHOULD SEE
SOME SUNNY BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND
SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. FORECAST CAPES MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO
KICK OFF CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS AND THUDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
LAST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE FIZZLING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN MAINE AND MID
70S TO LOWER 80S IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH OCEAN
STRATUS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB PATTERN SHIFTING TO A WARM PATTERN FOR NEW ENGLAND AS LARGE
SCALE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS LOWER 48 AND WRN ATLANTIC. THE MORE
AMPLIFIED FLOW AT 500 MB IS SHIFTING TO EUROPE/ASIA AS WE SEE
ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAKER...MORE TRANSIENT WAVES...AND WARMER
CONDITIONS AS WE TAP INTO WARMER TO OUR S MORE FREQUENTLY.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL TRY TO OVERCOME STUBBORN TROUGH HOLDING
TOUGH ACROSS GASPE PENINSULA AND NEWFOUNDLANDS. THIS WILL ALLOW
SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR N TO FLUCTUATE BACK AND FORTH...AND ITS
PRESENCE AND THE PRESENCE OF THE DYNAMIC FORCING OF THE WAVES A
LOFT COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY IN THE
MTNS BOTH TUE AND WED AFT/EVE....AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES MOST
OTHER PLACES. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND
THEN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUE.

THE RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS IN...ALONG WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS OF 16-20 C...WED AND THU...AND HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S IN THE N...TO THE LOW 90S SOUTH....WITH TDS IN THE
MID-UPPR 60S. SOME MID 90S MAY BE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS WELL.  IT SHOULD BE DRY FROM TUE
NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING...WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT POSSIBLY
SETTING OFF SHOWERS IN THE N AND WEST LATE THU. THE MODELS BRING
THE COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...AND WILL SEE
SOME RELIEF FROM HOT AND HUMID CONDS...BUT STILL WILL REMAIN
SUMMER-LIKE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID CONDS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR MON-THU. VLY FOG IS LKLY AT TIMES AT
KHIE/KLEB...AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME COASTAL FOG/STRATUS MON
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...SEAS/WINDS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA LVLS MON-THU. WILL
LKLY SEE ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW IN SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS...ESPECIALLY TUE AND WED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE


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