Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 250516 AAC
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1204 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
HAVE EXTENDED POPS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS AS WEAK LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE
ALONG A COLD FRONT. SHORT TERM MODELS NOT DOING A GOOD JOB WITH
THIS AS THIN MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DECREASE. CLOUD
COVER ALSO ADJUSTED WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN NH AND
THE COASTAL PLAIN...HOWEVER LOW STRATUS AS WELL AS CIRRUS DEBRIS ARE
NOW ENCROACHING ON THE AREA FROM THE SE.

&&

930 PM UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN
VT AS OF 0230Z. FINE LINE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLD THUNDER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NRN NH AND PERHAPS
THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS THROUGH 06Z. OTHERWISE...A MILD AND
BREEZY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

610 PM UPDATE...JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST.
HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES TONIGHT AS WE
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE ON THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND TIL THE WEE HOURS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR. OTHERWISE...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND A FEW CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WITH 30-35 KT WIND GUSTS PRECEDING IT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING POSSIBLY AFFECTING NORTHERN
ZONES. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE 00Z
TO 06Z TIME FRAME AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND PERHAPS PARTIALLY
MIXES DOWN WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

PREVIOUSLY...

FORECAST AREA IS ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN LIFTING
WARM FNT AND APPROACHING COLD FNT. WARM MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO THE EVENING. COLD FNT CURRENTLY ACROSS WRN
NY WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY START TO MIX OUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS MAY TAKE UNTIL CLOSE TO DAWN TO DO SO
HOWEVER. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN VERY MILD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FNT WILL MIX DOWN TUE...WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE W.
EARLY DAY MILD TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE BACK INTO THE 40S BY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE DOWN THRU THE NIGHT IN CAA REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHT FURTHER EAST WITH THE SOLUTIONS
ON THE TRACK OF THE UPCOMING NOR`EASTER DURING THE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY TIME PERIOD. THE EURO IS THE FURTHEST WEST...AND
THEREFORE THE WETTEST SOLUTION THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL BE
LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH DEPICTS A TRACK SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH
TO THE EAST TO KEEP OUR PTYPE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. GREATEST
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR WITH THE ONSET OF LIGHT PRECIP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PRECIP INTENSITY PICKS UP...VERTICAL MOTION AND WET BULB EFFECTS
WILL CHANGE ANY RAIN QUICKLY BACK OVER TO SNOW IN THIS REGION.

SNOW TOTALS: IT APPEARS SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY TO BE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM.
PLOWABLE SNOWS WILL MAKE FOR TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
DURING ONE OF THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR. EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT DELAYS.

AGAIN...PTYPE AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ALL SNOW...WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS POSSIBLY BRINGING THE SNOW OVER TO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN. NO TEMPS ABOVE 32F IN THE MID LEVELS...SO
SLEET DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PROBLEMATIC.

SNOW ROLLS OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY...KEEPING MUCH
OF THE REGION DRY MUCH OF THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH
AND WEST BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER WARM UP TO OCCUR
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LINGERING IFR AND LIFR ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING. ARRIVING COLD FNT WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT TO
MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW. IT
MAY TAKE MOST OF THE NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE AND TUE
NIGHT...WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS.

LONG TERM...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE LOWERING TO LIFR IN SNOW LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH VERY EARLY THURSDAY AS THE COASTAL
SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA NOW ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT GALES
CONTINUE FOR ANZ350. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KT FOR MUCH OF THE
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE.

LONG TERM...COASTAL LOW MAY BRING A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
WINDS...MAINLY TO THE OUTER WATERS...WEDNESDAY NIGHT DURING ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO COASTAL MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ001>010-013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ151>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



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