Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 270031
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
831 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

&&
00Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING...CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE. SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DIMINISHING QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS FROM THE MID COAST TO GRADUALLY PUSH INLAND
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TO POINTS EAST AND WILL LIKELY HANG
AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THESE AREAS. FARTHER WEST VARIABLE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPS AND TD`S BASED ON CURRENT OBS. HAVE ALSO TWEAKED
POPS AND SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS/SAT PICS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO THE EAST OF A SURFACE FRONT WHICH
STRETCHES NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE. WITHIN THIS
ONSHORE FLOW A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IS TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BIGGEST THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN AS STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRACK OVER THE SAME
AREAS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE AIR MASS SLOWLY GETS
PUSHED AWAY BY THE FRONT. COULD SEE A RETURN OF SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO THE MIDCOAST REGION BEFORE DRY AIR MOVES IN LATER
TONIGHT. A LITTLE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 50S.

TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE... DEWPOINTS ARE
DROPPING CONSIDERABLY AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY
LESS NOW THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF TONIGHT
INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A
SHOWER OR TWO BUILDING IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS CROSSES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REACH THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS
BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE 50S THURSDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN VALLEYS WILL
DROP INTO THE 40S IN THE DRY AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE IN THE CARDS
WITH TROUGHING EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEING REPLACED BY DEEP LAYER
RIDGING. IN A NUTSHELL...A RATHER QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
IN THE MEAN RIDGING...MUCH LIKE IN REX BLOCK FASHION...MAY AFFECT
OUR REGION WITH SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT QUITE THERE ON THIS FEATURE
DUE TO THE BLOCKY PATTERN. IT COULD VERY WELL END UP BEING DRY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER...AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK
OF SEPTEMBER...LOOKS LIKE A VERY WARM TO PERHAPS HOT PATTERN
EMERGES AS CENTRAL US RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS ALL BARRING A
PATTERN SHIFT OR A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OR TWO PUSHING IN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE AREA
EXCEPT FOR ROCKLAND WHERE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AND KEEP
LIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO WORSEN EVEN MORE AT
ROCKLAND THIS EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR TRIES TO ERODE THESE CLOUDS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME FOG IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE
VALLEYS AS WELL BUT OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL VALLEY
LOCATIONS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND IT. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...
MARINE...


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