Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 241511
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1011 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATS LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1010 AM...A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE POPS A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON...NEAR ZERO...AND THIS EVENING...LOWERING THEM THROUGH
LATE EVENING...THEN BRINGING THEM UP AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO ADJUST
OVERNIGHT TEMPS..WITH MINS COMING DURING THE EVENING...THEN TEMPS
SLOWLY RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL AREAS.

6 AM UPDATE: WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AND ARE CALM WHILE SKIES ARE CLEAR
THROUGHOUT THE REGION SO HAVE DROPPED ALL WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES. ACTUAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN DANGEROUSLY COLD AND THIS
MAY GO DOWN AS THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE WINTER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGH THE FLOOR
EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TO ALIGN WITH NEIGHBORING
FORECAST OFFICES EVEN THOUGH ARE WINDS HAVE GONE CALM. THESE WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6AM.

TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER WITH THE DEEP ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE. SOME WAA ALOFT WILL ALLOW MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO
SPILL ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW OCEAN CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO
COASTAL AREAS LATER IN THE DAY.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY REACH THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO MID TEENS...THIS MAKES SENSE
DUE TO THE DEEP MORNING INVERSIONS THAT WILL NEED TO BE MIXED OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WE NEED TO KEEP A SHARP EYE ON A
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE THAT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL ALLOW THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW THAT WILL FORM AND EXTEND AN INVERTED
(NORLUN) TROUGH NORTHWEST INTO THE MIDCOAST AREA. MODELS HAVE
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS BUT WITH DIFFERING AMOUNTS OF QPF. FOR
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY EVENT WITH 3-6 INCHES ALONG THE
MIDCOAST SO DID NOT NEED TO ISSUE ANY WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR
POTENTIAL HIGHER AMOUNTS. FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH AMOUNTS WILL DROP
OFF SHARPLY. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE WESTERN RIDGE RETROGRADES A BIT WITH
TIME AND THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH BECOMES BROADER WITH LESS
AMPLITUDE. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...WE TRANSITION TO A MILDER
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR
AVERAGE. HOWEVER...IN THE INTERIM WE STILL HAVE SEVERAL MORE DAYS
OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTEND WITH. THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY WILL INTRODUCE A REINFORCING SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE AND QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES IN THE
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH INDICATIONS THAT WARMER AIR
COULD RESULT IN A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING. POSSIBLE
MVFR IN LOW STRATUS AT ALL BUT KHIE/KLEB LATE TONIGHT...AND IFR
IN SNOW AT KPWM/KRKD/KAUG LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...

NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL IMPACTS EXPECTED BECAUSE OF WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
6AM UPDATE: HAVE DROPPED THE SCA OVER THE EASTERN MOST OUTER
WATERS AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO HAVE DROPPED THE HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS DUE TO THE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SO DROPPED THE GALES AND ONLY KEPT A SCA UP
FOR THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. CONTINUED THE
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS UNTIL 9AM. TONIGHT A SCA FOR SEAS
AND THEN INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH THE
NEXT FAST MOVING TROUGH AND COASTAL LOW. WEDNESDAY WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST AND REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...

THU...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



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