Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 190730
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
330 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE FOR A DRY AND
PLEASANT WEEKEND. THE HIGH WEAKENS A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
ALLOWS WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION AT END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. MEANWHILE UPPER RIDGE OVER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HAS A SHARP SHORTWAVE EXTENSION INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE RESULT IS WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT OVER MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. HOWEVER... CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH TO THE WEST IS GRADUALLY PUSHING INTO THE AREA. THE CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING TODAY... WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY ENDING
UP PRETTY CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY IN THE END. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WHERE CLOUD
COVER WILL ARRIVE LATER AND BE LESS EXTENSIVE... ALLOWING THIS
AREA TO TAKE BETTER ADVANTAGE OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TODAY... AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT
ABOUT 700 MB WILL CAP ANY INSTABILITY THAT IS ABLE TO BE GENERATED
FROM HEATING TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND... AN
ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE OF CAPE
COD. THIS COULD ADD TO THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. BUT DO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND A LITTLE HIGHER DEW POINTS. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT BENEATH THE
UPPER TROUGH. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH... BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER FORMING
OVER THE TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG RIDGING AT 500 MB OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW JET STREAM TO LIFT NORTHWARD MONDAY AND
TUESDAY... AND WILL SEE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WORK IN. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO 15C ON TUESDAY... AND APPROACH 18C ON
WEDNESDAY... BEFORE 500 MB TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
MONDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS 80 TO
85... COOLER ON THE SHORE. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...
WILL SEE A LIGHT EAST FLOW DEVELOP... AND EXPECT COASTAL STATUS
AND FOG MOVING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SHOULD SEE
CLEARING ON TUESDAY... AS THE SW FLOW DEVELOPS... WITH HIGHS
INLAND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND AROUND 80 ON THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOT DAY... AS HIGHS REACH TO AROUND 90
INLAND... AND MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST COASTAL AREAS. WILL START
TO SEE SOME THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS... ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES... AS HIGH INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH SOME WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES.

00Z EURO AND GFS ARE COMING INTO BETTER SYNC AS FAR AS TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT... WHICH ALL COMES TOGETHER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
WHICH WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY IF THE 500 MB LOW DEEPENS
AS MUCH AS THE EURO SUGGESTS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY... WITH SOME CUMULUS FORMING INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON BENEATH A LAYER OF HIGH CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE FLOW
DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FOG TONIGHT AS
CLOUDS PREVENT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.

LONG TERM...
MAINLY VFR...BUT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG
MONDAY NIGHT... AND VALLEY FOG MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... MAINLY KLEB/KHIE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH WILL SEE INCREASING SW FLOW LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/KIMBLE
MARINE...CEMPA/KIMBLE




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