Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 221913
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
313 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY...BRINGING NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND HELP
MODERATE THE AIR MASS OVERHEAD...BUT TEMPERATURES STILL WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING INCREASINGLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THEN A RETURN
TO COLDER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD
EARLY SPRING AIR MASS. MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING H8 TEMPS
DOWN TO -21 C TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS REPRESENTS A
-3 SIGMA ANOMALY...AND A ROUGHLY ONCE EVERY DECADE OR MORE RETURN
PERIOD. IN FACT IF H8 TEMPS VERIFY THAT COLD IT WOULD BE A NEW
RECORD IN THE SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR PWM/GYX ON THIS DATE.

GIVEN THIS I EXPECT BITTERLY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT...WITH CAA
CONTINUING THE DOWNWARD TREND INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
THIS WILL BE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD COLD FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT COLD TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS COMBINE TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS NEAR 20 BELOW ACROSS THE FAR NRN ZONES. THIS
IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST HOWEVER...SO NO HEADLINE IS PLANNED
AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED READINGS THAT LOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AGAIN MON MORNING AIR MASS WILL BE WARMING ALOFT...BUT WILL STILL
BE NEAR RECORD COLD TERRITORY IN THE SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH WARMING THRU THE DAY AS A RESULT. I DID GO A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE HOWEVER...AS THE TENDENCY IS FOR NWP
TO BE TOO COLD IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY...BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS TODAY.

HIGH PRES EXERTS MORE CONTROL OVER THE REGION MON NIGHT. EXPECT
THAT WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN RESPONSE...AND A BETTER CHANCE AT
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WELL BELOW
NORMAL NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY AND THE CLEAR SKIES
WITH WARM MARCH SUNSHINE WILL HELP MODERATE THE COLD AIR MASS IN
PLACE...BUT NONETHELESS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE ON WEDNESDAY AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) OVERSPREADING THE
REGION. SOME LIGHT WARM FRONTAL PRECIP WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA SHOULD WAKE UP THURSDAY MORNING TO TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN
THE LOW 40S. WAA WILL CONTINUE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S BEFORE
BEFORE SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

BEHIND THE FRONT WE CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU MON NIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE IS SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHSN AT KHIE
THRU TONIGHT. STRONG NW WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. EXPECT GUSTS TO 20 KTS INTO MON HOWEVER.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THEN MVFR/IFR FOR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AS LOW
PRESSURES MOVES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACE. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THRU MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OUT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES (SCA) WILL NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL EASE...BUT LIKELY AN SCA
WILL STILL BE NEEDED DUE TO HIGH SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPS FORECAST INTO MON...HERE IS A LISTING OF
RECORD COLD MAX TEMPS AND RECORD MIN TEMPS AT KPWM.

MIN TEMP MARCH 23...11 SET IN 1959
MAX TEMP MARCH 23...30 SET IN 1997

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ001>010.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KISTNER
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...KISTNER
AVIATION...KISTNER/LEGRO
MARINE...KISTNER/LEGRO


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