Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

338
FXUS61 KGYX 152134 AAA
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
534 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AND WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN
QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
REGION. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...HAVE TO LOOK BACK ACROSS CENTRAL NY STATE TO FIND SHOWERS
REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS HOUR. HAVE DELAYED POP SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING...AS MODEL FORECASTS KEEP US DRY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LATEST HRRR RUN SUPPORTS GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...INDICATING THAT A
SUBTLE S/WV TROF ROUNDING THE RIDGE WILL FORCE A LOOSELY ORGANIZED
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS THRU THE SWRN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY MOISTEN OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY SUFFICIENTLY TO BRING THE
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.

IT WILL BE MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT DESPITE THE LOW DEW POINTS DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE GREATEST THREAT OF A SHOWER WILL MAINLY BE SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND BRIEF.

A VERY LOW CHANCE SHOWER MAY LINTER INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE 12Z
MESOSCALE MODEL SUITE SHOWS LAST OF THE SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.  IT WILL BE MILDER
ONCE AGAIN WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY BETWEEN 45 AND 55 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END OVER WESTERN MAINE SUNDAY MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVE OFFSHORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND SHOULD MAKE FOR A NICE REST
OF THE DAY AS WELL AS WELL AS A SUNNY START FOR MONDAY. EVENTUALLY
CLOUDS WILL CREEP BACK IN LATER MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... EXITING THE REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AFTER THIS THE
WEEK LOOKS VERY QUIET WEATHER WISE WITH A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL JUST BE A WIND SHIFT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION BUT IT MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ON SUNDAY BEFORE
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. NEXT FRIDAY
WE WILL WARM BACK UP INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN. FROST REALLY ONLY
THREATENS IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SUNDAY
MORNING. MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY IN SHOWERS. FOG LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT/
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS WAVES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 30S THIS EVENING
BEFORE RECOVERING OVERNIGHT UNDER LIGHT WINDS. SHOWERS AND AN
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL HELP TO
MOISTEN FUELS AND EASE FIRE DANGER.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LEGRO



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.