Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 061459
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1059 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA INTO MIDWEEK
BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST SKY COVER PER LATEST SATELLITE LOOP. DROP
MENTION OF ANY ISOLD -SHRA THIS MORNING BUT DO HAVE A SLGT CHC
SKIM ACROSS OUR NRN MOST AREA DUE TO AN UPPER LVL IMPULSE SLIDING
BY IN THE BROAD UPPER LVL W NW FLOW BACKING TO THE W SW. THIS
IMPULSE IS ALSO PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH LVL
CLOUDINESS OVER FAR NRN NH THRU ALL BUT EXTREME SW ME. EXPECT
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS TO CONT THRU THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THESE
AREAS DUE TO MORE UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS. GUSTY W SW WINDS DEVELOP AS
HIGH PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W BUT WILL HEAD WELL TO OUR S
CREATING THE W SW FLOW AROUND THE CIRCULATION. HAVE BUMPED UP
WINDS AND WAVES IN THE LAKES FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO
UPDATED SUMMITS FCST MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME COOLER TEMPS AT
MWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG AS SURFACE
WINDS DECOUPLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WILL INTRODUCE WARMER AND
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING
WITH RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE BY EVENING AS CAPES APPROACH 1500 J/KG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AS WELL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD MONDAY EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WEAK TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS COULD
RESULT IN WIDELY SCT SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS
TO REMAIN QUITE LIMITED. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DOES MOVE JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS MAY SPARK MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THEREAFTER...FROM WED THROUGH SAT...MODEL DIFFER IN TIMING OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGES AND THEREFORE DIFFER ON CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. SO...WE CAN/T RULE OUT WIDELY SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS
TO BE A GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE
THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...VFR...WITH BRIEF LCL MVFR IN VALLEY
F POSSIBLE LATE TNGT TO JUST AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. SCT SHRA/TSTMS
SPREADING NW TO SE THRU INTO THE FCST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
MAY LOWER TO MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN IFR.

LONG TERM...OTHER THAN LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN WDLY SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...UPDATED TO ADD OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. NOT EXPECTING GUSTS TO BE
FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR AN SCA...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. WINDS AND SEAS
STAY JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS TNGT BUT MAY REACH SCA LEVELS ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FNT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY PERSIST MON AND TUE WITH
A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN SEAS THEREAFTER.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





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