Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 030750
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
250 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE WEST OF NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE PRECEDED
BY A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN
IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. EVEN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT PRECEDED BY A GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND
OF UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR. COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BY TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...BEFORE CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A COASTAL STORM AFFECTS THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
VERY COMPLEX SITUATION SETTING THE STAGE FOR TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES WELL TO THE WEST OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH H850 WINDS TOPPING OUT
OVER 50 KTS FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO BREAK OUT
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WITH MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTING THIS TIME
FRAME TO BE MOSTLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. PLENTY OF DRIER AIR
REMAINS IN THE COLUMN FOR EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. A COASTAL FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG OUR SHORELINE AS WELL...WITH
EASTERLY WINDS OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS VEERING TO THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING.

SNOW WILL RAPIDLY ACCUMULATE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THIS
MORNING...WHILE THE WARM AIR OVERWHELMS SOUTHERN AREAS. HAVE UPPED
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER NORTHERN AREAS AS STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
ASCENT WILL PRECEED THE WARM AIR. OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY APPROACH
6 INCHES OVER A FEW AREAS.

WINDS ALONG THE MIDCOAST MAY GUST TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
THEREFORE RAISED A WIND ADVISORY FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AFTER THE INVERSION FINALLY BREAKS. THIS WILL MATCH UP
WELL AGAINST WFO CAR HIGH WIND WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE MIDCOAST REGION THIS EVENING. IT
WILL BE UNSEASONABLE WARM OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF RAIN OR RAIN
SHOWERS CONTINUING AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MARCHES ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE PRECIP EDGES OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FULL SCALE CLEARING MAY HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING WELL OFF THE COAST EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE FRONT DURING THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THIS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG SAID FRONT. AS OF THIS WRITING THE
TROF MAY BECOME AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO ALL SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERNMOST ZONES LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI.
THEREFORE WE HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS FOR POSSIBLE FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AND MORE
PRECIPITATION BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS JUST FAR ENOUGH TO THE
EAST TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT LIGHT...MAY BE WITH A
CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY THAT MOVES JUST TO OUR NORTH. COULD
BE SOME SNOW SQUALLS WITH THIS AS A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE SHOULD MOVE
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AND LEAVE US ALONE.

THEREAFTER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT OF A COASTAL LOW AFFECTING OUR AREA WITH A POTENTIAL SNOW
STORM AS A STREAM MERGER TAKES PLACE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW EVENTUALLY PROVIDES SOME UPSTREAM BLOCKING FOR
THIS NEXT LOW TO REMAIN CLOSER TO US. THIS WILL REMAIN SOMETHING
TO WATCH. MODEL BLEND POPS OF HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY FOR TUE-
TUE NIGHT SEEM APPROPRIATE GIVEN THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE SUPPORT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE LOWERING QUICKLY THIS MORNING
INTO THE IFR AND LIFR CATEGORY. THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AND DRIER WESTERLIES ARRIVE THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NH AND THE COAST OF MAINE THU NIGHT
OR FRI AM AS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE GRAZES THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...BRIEF LOW CONDITIONS IN POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT. WAVES WILL BUILD
LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...TOPPING OUT IN THE 10-14 FOOT RANGE
ALONG THE MIDCOAST REGION.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR MEZ027-028.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ007>009-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ012-013.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ002>004.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$


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