Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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075
FXUS61 KGYX 151038
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
638 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front crosses the region this morning allowing a warmer
and increasingly moist southwest flow to develop over the area.
Low pressure will track east through southern Canada later today
driving a trailing cold front through the region tonight. Canadian
high pressure with cooler and dry weather follows for Monday
into Tuesday. A large ridge of high pressure builds across the
eastern U.S. allowing a warm dry southwest flow to return for
the last half of the week and quite possibly into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
635 am...Forecast in decent shape early this AM as just a few
light showers skirt the intl border this morning, and there will
be threat for showers in this area thru the morning. Otherwise,
the dense fog is expanding a little further than inland from
earlier this morning, but not enough to expand the advisory, as
it looks more patchy as you move toward the foothills. Its also
starting to show signs of thinning a bit at times even in the
advisory area. It will take a while to diminish this morning,
but may be able to drop the advisory by 9 instead of 10.

Previously...Warm front will track NE across the CWA this
morning, although only threat for showers will be across far nrn
zones. The day will start off cloudy withe fog. Dense fog
advisory has been issued for SE NH and the coastal plain of ME
into mid- morning. Most ons sites in this region showing a
quarter to half mile in vsby, and flow will remain light until
the winds shift behind the warm front during the morning.

Once the warm front does go through should S-SW winds pick up
and skies clear out, at least partially. This will happen first
in S and W NH and should clear all but the mid-coast by midday
into early afternoon. Look for breezy conditions this afternoon,
with winds 10-20 mph and some gusts to 25-30 mph, esecially
along the coast and over the higher terrain /where some gusts of
35-40 mph or higher may be seen this afternoon/. Highs today
will be a product of how quickly the warm sector mixes down and
will range from the mid- upper 70s in southern NH and the CT
valley to the upper 60s to 70 in central ME and the mid-coast.
Coolest near the beaches. For the most part, any showers moving
in from the west will hold off until sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Cold front approaches from the west and should begin to cross
the CWA this evening. The surge of southerly winds will occur
just ahead of the front, so some of the strongest gusts could be
from sunset into the early to mid evening. This will also keep
temps from falling much this evening as well. Showers should
move into the western zones and cross the mountains this
evening as well, but they fall apart as best forcing shunts N
and E tonight, so there is only a slight chc for showers on the
coastal plain and in srn NH. The front should clear the CWA
around or shorty after midnight, and winds shift to WNW, should
temps fall quickly behind the front and despite a warm evening,
morning lows Monday will drop into the low 40s to low 50s from
N to S.

On Monday, CAA will continue through the day, which will be
counteracted by downslope S and E of the mtns and foothills. So
temps will rebound on Monday, but only a little with highs
ranging from the upper 40s in the mountains to around 60 on the
coast and in srn NH. Will likely see m/cdy skies in the mtns
with a few showers possible, and mostly to partly sunny skies
elsewhere, as the day may start off sunny, but some stratocu
should develop, although the downslope will limit this somewhat.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The models remain in decent agreement on the long wave pattern
through late next weekend. We begin the period with an upper
trough contributing to a few lingering upslope clouds before
sweeping offshore early Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure briefly
follows for Tuesday. A shortwave impulse will cross eastern
Canada and northern New England late Tuesday and Tuesday night
with an associated cold front bringing a few clouds and scattered
showers mainly to mountain sections of the forecast area. Ridging
and a low amplitude flow will bring fair weather and a warming
trend for the second half of the work week and into the upcoming
weekend. The only fly in the ointment will be a weak moisture
starved front. This boundary will briefly sag southward into the
area Thursday night with a few clouds before returning north as a
warm front on Friday. With mean jet position and cold air
remaining largely to our north and west this period...we`ll see a
continuation of above normal temperatures and below normal
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...Fog has settled across coastal terminals and
KAUG/KMHT/KCON. KRKD has not fogged yet, but should by sunrise,
and they will likely be stuck at IFR through most of the day.
The other terminals should see improvement to VFR by mid-late
morning. S winds pick up this afternoon, and will likely gust
to around 20 kts or so this afternoon into this evening. VFR
should persist tonight through Monday.

Long Term...

Tue Night...Isold MVFR psb in Mtn -shra.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SCA conditions will develop this afternoon as S
winds increase. The winds will likely peak this evening, and
could see a few gusts approaching gales at this time. A cold
front will cross the waters and winds will shift to W, and
eventually NW on Monday, with SCA gusts outside of the bays.

Long Term...

Wed...Small craft conditions are possible outside the bays.

Thu...Small craft conditions are possible bays and open waters.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MEZ018>020-
     023>027.
NH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NHZ010-
     012>014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT
     Monday for ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Cempa
SHORT TERM...Cempa
LONG TERM...Schwibs
AVIATION...
MARINE...



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