Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 141647
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1147 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION
WILL FINALLY BE FINALLY MOVING EAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CREST
OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING A RETURN TO CLEAR SKIES
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
COME ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...HOWEVER IT LACKS ANY ABUNDANT MOISTURE SO ANY RAIN OR
SNOW WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
NOON UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING EVEN FURTHER FROM PREVIOUSLY UPDATED
FORECAST. PORTLAND IS NOW 42 AS OF 11 AM. COULD SEE A HIGH OF 45
THERE. DOWNSLOPING IS BRINGING CLEAR SKIES TO MOST OF THE AREA
DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS... ALLOWING FOR BETTER HEATING AND
MIXING. CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE
UPDATED SKY COVER FORECAST AS WELL.

830AM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER POP TO ZERO AND INCREASE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPERATURES THE LAST FEW NIGHTS HAVE BEEN
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE FORECAST VALUES AND CURRENT EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR FORECAST HIGH VALUES TODAY... SO WENT AHEAD
AND INCREASED FORECAST HIGHS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS. SHOULD SEE MORE SUN TODAY AND A DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST
WIND WHICH WILL AID IN MIXING.

630AM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW SHOWERS OVER THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. STILL DO NOT HAVE ANY
GROUND TRUTH THAT LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ARE REACHING THE GROUND AS
SNOW. MADE OTHER MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE DATABASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S
AREAWIDE WITH A FEW OF THE COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS.

THIS NO PRECIPITATION REGIME CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS AND IN REINFORCES THE SURFACE HIGH. SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY EVERYWHERE WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. MODELS SHOW THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY CUT OFF AS
IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WEDNESDAY SO PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A MIX
WILL BE EXPECTED. NOT A LOT OF QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM. BY
THURSDAY ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE SYSTEM TO CHANGE
ANY PRECIPITATION OVER TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THE LOW DRIFTS E AT A SNAILS
PACE FRIDAY SO CLOUDS WILL LINGER. BY SATURDAY A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING
A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE SUPERBLEND OF MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR DECK AROUND FL050 KFT WILL LIFT LATER THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. AS THIS MOVES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY... WESTERLY WINDS COULD GUST TO
AROUND 25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE


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