Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
FXUS61 KGYX 120013 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
713 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2017
A cold front will slowly approach from the west tonight through
Thursday and will cross the region Thursday night. High pressure
will build in from the west Friday through Saturday. A weak cold
front will drop south through the region Late saturday night and
early Sunday. High pressure will build in from the west Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night. High pressure will remain over the
region through Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...Clear skies ahead of an approaching warm front are
allowing temps to fall quickly this evening. Already seeing
readings below freezing at this early hour. With overrunning
precip on the way...there is a freezing rain threat again this
evening. Thankfully roads were much warmer today than last
evening...and may mitigate some of that refreezing threat. Still I
will be expanding coverage of freezing rain the grids with this
update...and I will continue monitoring trends as clouds and precip
approach to see if temps warm any.
Previous discussion...Weak over-running ahead of a slow moving
cold front will bring increasing clouds this evening and a chance
of showers after midnight. Best chance of showers will be in
southern New Hampshire and adjacent southwest Maine where
temperatures will hold above freezing. Farther north where
temperatures fall below freezing this evening before rising after
midnight isolated pockets of light freezing rain will be possible
but all models are only showing a few hundredths of QPF which may
not fall until after temperatures rise above freezing. Will be
letting the evening and midnight shifts handle the situation as it
evolves most likely with special weather statements if needed.
Expect most of the area to be above freezing by daybreak Thursday.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Looking for periods of rain on Thursday as the cold front slowly
sags into northern zones by the end of the day. Temperatures will
once again top out well above normal ranging from the mid 40s
north to the mid 50s south.
Showers will gradually come to an end Thursday evening as the
front pushes offshore. Should see clearing downwind of the
mountains by midnight with variable cloudiness hanging on in the
north. Lows will range through 20s north and lower to mid 30s
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong cold air advection begins Friday as a cold front sweeps
east of the region and a 1049 MB builds in from the Great Lakes.
Wind fields become aligned in a west, northwest flow through a
relatively deep layer as mixing values increase. Raised wind
forecast above Superblend guidance as well as gusty westerlies
will increase. Minimum temperatures by Friday night will range
from 5 below in the north to 10 above in the south. With a
northwest wind continuing, wind chill values will be even lower
during the overnight hours.
Bright sunshine will continue on Saturday as a strong surface
ridge of high pressure parks itself over Maine and New Hampshire.
Saturday night is seen as a target of opportunity with readings
below provided Superblend values. This is all dependent on whether
or not clouds advance from a short wave during the overnight
The short wave and the passage of a weak surface trough will
allow for a reinforcing short of cold air on Sunday. A dry pattern
with increasing warmth will continue as the high slowly drifts off
the coast. By Tuesday, low pressure will finally pass by to our
west, bringing more rain to the region.
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...VFR this evening with IFR/LIFR ceilings developing
after midnight. IFR/LIFR ceilings and MVFR vsby on
Thursday...improving to VFR Thursday night.
Long Term...Areas of MVFR with upslope scattered snow showers
expected in the mountains Friday morning. Otherwise, generally VFR
conditions through the period.
Short Term...SCA`S in effect through 22z for winds and will likely
be extended for seas through the evening hours.
Long Term...Strong gusty winds are possible from the northwest on
Friday with possible gusts into the gale force range as strong
cold air advection begins. Winds will be slow to diminish
thereafter Friday night and Saturday.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 5 AM EST Friday for
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Friday for ANZ150>152-154.