Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KGYX 261339
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
939 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EAST
INTO THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
---940AM UPDATE---
ONLY A COUPLE OF SHOWERS LEFT OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN MAINE. EXPECT THESE TO DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST PACKAGE IS LARGELY IN GOOD
SHAPE.

625 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. CAT POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND YOTK COUNTY ME FOR THE ONGOING RAINFALL
CONTINUE FOR TIL ABOUT 12-13Z. THEREAFTER...A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPOT SHOWERS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.

PREVIOUSLY...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM ARE CURRENTLY FALLING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NH AS OF 07Z AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERNMOST MAINE
PRIOR TO 12Z. THESE SHOWERS ARE VERY LIGHT AND ARE BARELY
MEASURING. SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS TODAY AS SOME HEATING TAKES
PLACE IN TANDEM WITH INCREASINGLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS MAY SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND ALLOWS FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS LATE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A
MOSTLY SUNNY START WILL BE REPLACED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES AS A UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN ACROSS SWRN NH BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND UP THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF SUNDAY WILL CREATE AN
SIGNIFICANT OVERRUNING RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WHILE DAMP WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY SUNDAY...THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM WEST
TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS A CYCLONIC FLOW
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY RESOLVING
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY WITH
GFS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN ECMWF. BOTH MODELS SHOWING DRIER
WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK AS STORM TRACK SHIFTS SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUN/...A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
TODAY IN SHOWERS...BUT MOST AREAS VFR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING IN SW NH BY 21Z SAT.

LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FOG...WITH FOG POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLD TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH GALES POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT
     MONDAY...AND MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
LIKELY TO CONTINUE DUE TO HIGH SEAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

POHL



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.