Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 251302
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
902 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT BEFORE WE SEE
ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND COULD STALL
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOG CONTINUES
TO BURN OFF AND MIX OUT IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES REMAIN WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES. HAVE ADJUSTED
DEW POINTS UPWARDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE MARINE FORECAST AS WELL (SEE BELOW).

PREV DISC...
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS IN MOST
AREAS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE WILL
CAP TEMPS IN COASTAL AREAS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
CLEAR AND MILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES ON TUESDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HIGHS IN MOST LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90.
AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL ONCE AGAIN CAP TEMPS AT THE COAST IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL...MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS
THE CONUS...WITH DEVELOPING TROUGHING OVER ALASKA AND THE ERN
PACIFIC. THIS WOULD KEEP THE NERN CONUS WITH A TENDENCY TOWARD
RIDGING ALOFT BY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALTHOUGH NOT
NECESSARILY A DRY RIDGE.

ON WED...SFC RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS TROUGH AT 500 MB BEGIN TO DEEPEN
TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SFC COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST...BUT NOT BEFORE 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 15-17C. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR VERY WARM TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS...AS DECENT SW FLOW MIXES THESE AREAS OUT INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S...AND IT WILL BE HUMID WITH TDS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LIMITED PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT...AND
TIMING OF BEST DYNAMICS...WHICH STAY N...AND THE SFC FRONT NOT
GREAT...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LINE OF TSRA MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA WED AFTERNOON...GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY /CAPES OF
1000-1500 J-KG/. THE CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO EARLY EVE OVER
ERN ZONES BUT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA LATE...WITH COOLER AIR MOVING
IN FOR THU....WHEN HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 70S. THE TROUGH
DEEPENS TO OUR EAST...AND COULD SEE SOME CLOUDS SPILL BACK TO THE
WEST THU AS WELL.

BY FRI...500 MB RIDGING WILL BE BACK IN PLACE...WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS. ON SAT...START TO SEE WAR AIR ADV DEVELOPING TO OUR
WEST...AND MODELS DISAGREEMENTS BEGIN TO SHOW UP WITH THE GFS
SHOWING WHAT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM REMNANTS MOVING THROUGH
ON SAT...WHILE EURO HOLDS OFF ON THE THREAT OF PRECIP UNTIL
SUNDAY. WHILE BOTH MODELS ARE PROBABLY HAVING PROBLEMS WITH
CONVECTIVE SCALING AT THIS POINT...THEY BOTH SHOW WAA MOVING
THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AT SOME POINT...SO THE THREAT OF SHRA
WILL BE THERE ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS FOR TIMING AND
EXTENT OF ANY SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY IN MORNING VALLEY FOG.

LONG TERM...VLY FOG POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AGAIN...WITH SOME TSRA
POSSIBLE ON WED AFTERNOON/EVE...OTHERWISE VFR THRU FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WAVES WILL RUN IN THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE IN SOME AREAS
TODAY. HAVE ADJUSTED THE WAVE FORECAST UPWARDS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THERE IS MOSTLY AN 8 SECOND OR HIGHER PERIOD.

LONG TERM...SW FLOW INCREASES TUE NIGHT INTO WED AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT...AND ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL STAY BLO SCA LVLS...COULD SEE SEAS
APPROACH 5 FT BY WED. NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD START BRING
THE SEAS DOWN BY THU.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



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