Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 200350
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1150 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE: ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT AS CLOUDS AND WINDS
REMAIN IN PLACE. DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN REACHING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COAST... BUT IT WONT TAKE LONG FOR TEMPS TO
FALL UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND SO HAVE LEFT FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE.

9 PM UPDATE: CLOUDS AND ENOUGH WIND HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING
OFF TOO QUICKLY. LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS LIGHTEN AND SKIES
PARTIALLY CLEAR TEMPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO FALL TO FCST LOWS. FREEZE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

PREV DISC:
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ABUNDANT UPSTREAM MOISTURE AND
ROBUST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES RIGHT DOWN TO THE COAST WHERE FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN POSTED. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...NORTHERN ZONES WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SEND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
SHOULD STILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND IN THE 40S NORTH.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WEAK OVER-RUNNING AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN WESTERN ZONES MONDAY
NIGHT BUT THESE SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRIMARY DRIVER OF WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE UPPER LOW WHICH CUTS OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
AND SLOWLY SPINS OVER THE AREA BEFORE PULLING OUT ON FRIDAY. FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE COMPUTER MODELS THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY... DRIFTING
TOWARD CAPE COD WEDNESDAY... THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY... AND
NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE A PRETTY GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FLOWING NORTHWARD... WITH LIFT FROM THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAUSING ALL THAT MOISTURE TO BE DEPOSITED AS
RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RAIN COULD BEGIN AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY AS BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW COULD BRING
SHOWERS. BUT THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH RAIN CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. WITH LOW
PRESSURE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT.

OVER THE 3-4 DAY PERIOD A TOTAL OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED. IT IS STILL HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL AS PINPOINTING WHERE THE RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP IN A CUT
OFF LOW TYPE SCENARIO LIKE THIS IS FAIRLY DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT.
BUT IT APPEARS THAT MAINE MIGHT BE HIT A BIT HARDER THAN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH AREAS FROM PORTLAND NORTHWARD SEEING THE MOST RAIN.
WITH THIS MUCH RAIN FORECAST... FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.
ALTHOUGH RAIN RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME... THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO CAUSE RIVER
FLOODING AS STREAMS AND RIVERS SWELL FROM THE PROLONGED RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL FOR HIGHS BUT WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... CLOUD COVER...
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...CONDITIONS BEGIN DETERIORATING ON TUESDAY TO MVFR/IFR
IN RAIN. SHOULD SEE IFR/LIFR COMMONPLACE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE. NORTH/WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS
MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
UPSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS MAY KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA`S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND TRACKS SLOWLY TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE GULF OF MAINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW. WINDS
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE IN THE HIGH END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE TO LOW
END GALE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN PRODUCING 10 FT WAVES.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY FRIDAY AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...


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