Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 200800 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 400 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... STUBBORN CLOUD COVER AND A PERSISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAVE KEPT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY STILL DECOUPLE AND SEE TEMPERATURE DROP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WILL ALLOW FREEZE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT SUNRISE AS SCHEDULED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE WEAK HIGH MOVES OUT AND A LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL FINALLY BEING TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH THE WEAK RIDGING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... EAST COAST CYCLONGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ON SCHEDULE TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL HAS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST ITS MEMBERS. AFTER MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATED A JOG TO THE NORTH WITH THE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW...TONIGHTS MODELS ARE NOW DIGGING THE TROUGH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SIMILAR TO RUNS LATE LAST WEEK. THE STRONGER/MORE INTENSE DIGGING SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE WHEN VIEWING THIS MORNINGS LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS OF 07Z...THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER FAR WESTERN MICHIGAN AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD. CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH WOULD ALLOW THE DRY SLOT TO STAY OFFSHORE UNTIL THURSDAY...THEREBY UPPING OUR STORM TOTALS RAINFALL FORECASTS. FOR NOW...WITH A PERSISTENT AND MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW...WE ARE EXPECTING TWO TO THREE INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE REGION...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO FOUR INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. COASTAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A LOOP OVER LONG ISLAND NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. WAVE RUNUP TOOLS INDICATING SOME BEACH EROSION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR COASTLINE...ALONG WITH SPLASH-OVER AND OVERWASH. NEARSHORE WAVES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 FOOT RANGE. STEADY PRECIP ENDS ON FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. HYDRO...MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY MIDWEEK. MOST SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHARP RISES AS WELL. HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINE AND THE NORTHEAST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...MOSTLY 2-3 INCHES QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR OR OVER 4 INCHES. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY... WITH MVFR CIELINGS MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. LONG TERM...PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL IFR AT TIMES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM... WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25KTS TO 30KTS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING... BUT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY. EXPECT SCA TO BE DROPPED AROUND MID DAY... WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THOUGH TUESDAY. LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPCOMING COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ023>028. NH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ013-014. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$

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