Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 310434 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1234 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WHILE THE REGION WILL SEE A COUPLE FRONTAL PASSAGES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BY LATE WEEK...BUT SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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1234 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE AND TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT TRENDS. PREV DISC... 550 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST THE CURRENT MESONET INTO FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. PREV DISC... NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT TONIGHT WEATHERWISE...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH JUST A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDINESS FOR SOME AREAS. OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN DRY. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE AND BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE THE RULE ON MONDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL PROMOTE A FEW WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH AND ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 80S. SEVERAL READINGS AROUND 90 ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN MAINE...MAYBE EVEN AT THE COAST AS LONG AS THE OPPOSING FLOW KEEPS THE SEABREEZE AT BAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING A SHOWER TO THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY...BUT ODDS ARE THAT IT WILL BE DRY AS MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. DRY AND A BIT COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NORTHERLY ON LAND BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. BUBBLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MAINE JUST BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT AND INDUCE A SEABREEZE DURING THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. INLAND AREAS SHOULD WARM UP TO TEMPERATURES COMPARABLE TO MONDAY. THE FORECAST OF 85 DEGREES FOR CONCORD AND 80 DEGREES FOR PORTLAND IS STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH SITES. SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY HELPING TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRECEDED BY A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS... HOWEVER MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING AFTER PEAK HEATING WHICH WOULD LIMIT SEVERITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S DURING MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS STAYING TO OUR NORTH AND TO OUR SOUTH. WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT AND ON THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO PRODUCE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT FAVORED LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. THERE MAY BE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTH. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE STAYS OVER THE WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD (THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY). WINDS WILL BE N AND GUSTY TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT BUT WILL STAY BELOW 25 KTS BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY THAT WILL SERVE AS MOSTLY A WIND SHIFT. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

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