Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 291311 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 911 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST SLOWLY APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY FORMS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WILL JUST ADJUST TEMPS, DEW POINTS AND SKY COVER BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. PREV DISC: THE UPPER TROF RAPIDLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NE TODAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION TODAY. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND WED WITH A DRIER AIR MASS THAT MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW INSTBLTY SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON WED IN THE MTNS DUE TO AN UPPER TROF THAT VERY SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE W. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS WED ONCE AGAIN IN THE 70S. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS FCST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... PERSISTENT UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSONS BAY WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ITS WHEELS ON THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. WE/LL HAVE PRETTY COLD AIR ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN PLACE AND THE RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LOW- TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. HAVE HIGHEST POPS /LOW LIKELY/ ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE BEST FORCING WILL BE. SOME SMALL HAIL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THEREAFTER...THE MAIN QUESTION THEN BECOMES THE CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ROLLING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. OTHER DATA ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE IN OUR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS. LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AND POSSIBLE ON THE COAST IN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. THEREAFTER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF LOWER CONDITIONS SAT WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS DIMINISH TODAY BUT WILL CONT THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. LONG TERM...LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU AND THU NIGHT...OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152. && $$ TFH

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