Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 291316 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 916 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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915 AM...SOME MODS TO THE FORECAST...BUT THIS UPDATE MAINLY DEALS WITH DROPPING THE DENSE FOG ADV AS VSBY INCR AT MOST OBS SITES...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE FOG SHOULD COMPLETELY MIX OUT. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS A BIT THROUGH BETTER TO BETTER SHOW AREAL COVERAGE AND PROGRESSION OF WHAT ESSENTIALLY IS A BAND OF SHRA. 5 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE WX GRIDS TO REFLECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS MOST OF SRN AND ERN AREAS OF THE FA. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM. PREV DISC: LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND DISSIPATE AS A COLD FRONT WITH WIDELY SCT SHWRS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. VERY LITTLE QPF WITH THE SHWRS EXPECTED. BY LATER IN THE DAY THE DOWNSLOPING W WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S EXPECT MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE WRN MTNS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING. A COLDER AND DRIER NWLY FLOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E. THIS WILL ALLOW CLEARING SKIES. ON THURSDAY THE DRY COOL NWLY FLOW CONTINUES SO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL DAY EXPECTED. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL ALREADY BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE STATES ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE DIVES DOWN ALL THE WAY TO GA BEFORE LIFTING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE MOVES SE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND PHASES WITH A DEVELOPING OCEAN STORM. THE RESULTANT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM DRAGS ENOUGH COLD AIR WITH IT FROM CANADA FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN 2" OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT THIS TIME... AND SHOULD MELT OFF DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. WE COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM. PW VALUES DROP VERY LOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INDICATING A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE COOL IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 40S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...IFR TO LIFR CONDS IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH A WIND SHIFT ALLOWING CONDS TO IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG SATURDAY MORNING IN FOG AND SHOWERS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN STEADIER RA/SN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...LOW VSBYS IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. OTRW NOT ENOUGH OF A SSW PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR A SCA. ALTHOUGH TONIGHT SOME WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA, NO SCA IS WARRANTED ATTM. LONG TERM...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY INCREASE SEAS AND WINDS ENOUGH FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A COASTAL STORM NEARS AND INTENSIFIES S AND E OF THE GULF OF ME SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFTS WILL BE NEEDED WITH GALES POSSIBLE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CEMPA SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...

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