Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 181646 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1146 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will redevelop off the mid Atlantic coast early today. Another weak front will pass through the area early Thursday. This will be mainly dry with just clouds across the region and a few upslope snow showers along the Canadian border. High pressure will build in for the remainder of the week, with above normal temperatures expected into Monday. A storm system may affect the region beginning Sunday night and continuing into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1145 AM Update...Just a quick update here to replace winter storm warnings in NH with advisories as the snow accumulation has slowed significantly but some light snow continues to make roads slippery. Plus, some squalls appear to be approaching from the northwest also. Have also extended the winter weather advisory in ME and southeast NH where it is still snowing, with the immediate coast going til 6 pm due to ocean and coastal front enhancement. Another inch or two possible there. The upshot is that roads remain slippery through this afternoon and likely into the evening commute. On a side note, the internet connection at our office has been temporarily down. It should be fixed soon but it did prevent us from announcing these advisory changes earlier via NWS Chat. 910 AM Update...Have updated the forecast...mainly for pops/wx/snow amounts for the next several hours based on trends in radar data as well as mesoscale model data. Most locations are experiencing light snow...with some light rain mixing in across southernmost zones mainly near the MA border. There is actually a decent surge of colder air emanating from the northeast that is dropping temps at this hour...even in places like KPSM. Have adjusted for a colder scenario today. In addition, an ocean enhancement component is occurring on the coast...especially the southern ME coastal zones. Have actually boosted snow accums an inch or two in these areas because of that. Otherwise, light freezing drizzle may mix in from time to time today, but impacts are expected to be minimal. Previously... Low pressure south of Long Island will move east and out to sea today. This will bring snow to an end. One band of more intense snowfall on radar extends from portland into southern Oxford county as of 3am, this will continue to move east and dissipate over the next few hours. In New Hampshire surface observations show light snow persisting below the radar beam. This low level moisture will become freezing drizzle during the morning as the upper level dry slot moves in and cuts off the heavier precipitation. Light icing south of the Lakes region is possible until temperatures rise above freezing mid morning. All the precipitation will come to an end by early afternoon. Changes have been made to warnings and advisories to better reflect the lower snowfall totals. In Maine the precipitation was slow to move in last night as the dry air remained at the surface and as a result lower totals are expected. The winter storm warnings have been converted to winter weather advisories to reflect the lower amounts and chance for some brief ice early this morning. In New Hampshire Strafford and northern Carroll have been converted to winter weather advisories based on low precipitation amounts. The warnings remain in place for Belknap, Merrimack and Central and Western Hillsborough county. This area had the highest snow totals as of midnight and some elevated terrain which may enhance the snowfall amounts. All the hazard end times have been cut back to noon when precipitation should be done.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... A weak front will move through on Thursday from the north bringing widespread clouds and mountain snow showers. Minimal accumulation of 1-2inches is possible from Pittsburg NH through to Jackman. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A few remaining light flurries across the higher terrain Thursday evening will come to an end as high pressure settles over the forecast area. This ridge of high pressure will be slow to exit the region, bringing dry conditions to the Maine and New Hampshire through Friday. Clouds will spill over the ridge from an approaching large and complex area of low pressure in the Plains region over the weekend. This will set the stage for an upper level low to wobble towards the region. Initially, the atmosphere may be cool and dry enough to allow for some wet bulbing effects and snow across the interior Sunday night. By Monday, remaining pocket of cool dry air will be diminishing with a mixture of snow, sleet and rain across the region. Plain rain is expected along the coast, however precipitation amounts will continue to be light. A gusty northeast flow will develop by Monday night, allowing for additional rain along the immediate coast with a mix inland. As the system enters the Mid Atlantic region, the ptype becomes mainly in the form of rain as gale force easterlies develop. Confidence levels are not overly high for this forecast early next week. There are some model to model and ensemble discontinuities. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term...IFR cigs/vsbys continue today mainly in snow and mainly on the coastal plain. Long Term...Possible MVFR conditions Thursday evening as any upslope flurries come to an end. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through Sunday. Mixed rain and snow begins to enter the region Sunday night. && .MARINE... Short Term...SCA in effect as storm system moves to our south tonight through Wednesday. High pressure builds in for the end of the week. Long Term...SCA criteria (for seas) possible Thursday night, mainly over the outer waters. Winds and seas should be below SCA criteria Friday through Sunday. Increasing southeasterly flow will allow seas to build early next week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for MEZ012-013-018>021. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for MEZ023>026. NH...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for NHZ004-006-008>010-012-013-015. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NHZ014. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ150>154.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Ekster SHORT TERM...Curtis LONG TERM...Cannon AVIATION... MARINE...

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