Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 012152 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 452 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP IN ITS WAKE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT PUSHING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION...AND PRODUCING A PERIOD OF SNOW AND MIXED RAIN OR SNOW ALONG THE COAST. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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5PM UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SNOWFALL FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS MORE INTENSE ECHOES NOW SHOWING UP ON RADAR. BEST CHANCE AT SEEING AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE NEAR THE COAST AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH BROAD SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SUBLIMATE AS IT INTERACTS WITH A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT. 12Z MODEL SUITE AND MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS AND THEREFORE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. NEVERTHELESS...THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE 3-4 INCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MIDCOAST AND OVER FAR SOUTHERN NH NEAR THE MASSACHUSETTS BORDER. THIS WILL BE JUST BELOW SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT WILL BE A MUCH MILDER NIGHT THAN THOSE OF THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH READINGS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 DEGREES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
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UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS DISJOINTED FROM THE SURFACE REFLECTION ON MONDAY...WITH THE SHORT WAVE CROSSING LAKE ONTARIO BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A PASSING SNOW SHOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN...SOME UPSLOPING PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR. AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE HEADING DOWNWARDS AGAIN AS WELL...BRIEFLY APPROACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A SUNNY START ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TUESDAY NIGHT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH WIDESPREAD WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW EXPECTED. MID/LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A BRIEF MIX WITH RAIN MAY OCCUR BEFORE ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BLEND OF MODELS QPF SUGGESTS A SNOWFALL OF 2-6 INCHES EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY ALL MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW TO BE OVER BY EARLY MORNING AND THEN SOME CLEARING AND TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA AS H85 TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD INTO THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND. COLD AIR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EAST AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LIKE A BROKEN RECORD.
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&& .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY LOWERING AND DIMINISHING THIS EVENING IN LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. LONG TERM... VFR TUESDAY BECOMING IFR TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MID AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WILL BE ISSUING GALE WARNINGS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS WILL JUST TOUCH GALE FORCE WELL AWAY FROM THE SHORELINE. ALONG THE BAYS...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TYPE WINDS INTO TOMORROW EVENING. LONG TERM... SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED IN THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SCA MAY ALSO BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ151- 153. GALE WARNING FROM NOON TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE...KIMBLE SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM...MARINE AVIATION...CANNON/MARINE MARINE...CANNON/MARINE

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