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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 301535
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1103 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM...FORECAST UPDATED TO COVER ONGOING WEATHER EVENTS... AS
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BETWEEN E ONSHORE FLOW AND NRN FLOW INLAND
COMBINES WITH WEAK MID LVL FORCING /FG AROUND 700MB/ TO PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHRA. MESO MODELS SHIFT THIS BOUNDARY
SLIGHTLY NNW DURING THE DAY...AND THE MID LVL FORCING WEAKENS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW THE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY NNW AND BECOME MORE WIDELY SCT. HOWEVER...WILL
LKLY SEE CLOUDS DIMINISH...AND THIS COULD GENERATE SOME ADDED
INSTABILITY...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTIVE SHRA OR SOME THUNDER
AS WE MOVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

630 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN SATELLITE DATA.
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TOUGH...BUT SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE OVER CENTRAL MAINE
EASTWARD TO OUR EASTERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS WERE DERIVED MAINLY FROM
A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LIGHT SHOWERS DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN
A FAIR WX NIGHT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER. ON
THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER PARENT
UPPER LOW TO OUR NW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING FOR
ASCENT WORKING IN TANDEM WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /AS LOW AS -17C AT
500MB/ SHOULD SPARK SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT THUNDERSTORMS. THE
HIGHEST PROB FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SHOWERS
SHOULD END UP BEING WIDESPREAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SATURDAY LOOKING WARMER AND
MORE HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE ECMWF AS IT HAS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING JUST TO OUR EAST AND MAY PROVIDE FOR
SHOWERS ALL DAY.

FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALLS ON
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS. SEVERAL WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. WDLY SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN BRIEFLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS.

LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A FEW 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SCA SEAS MAY RETURN TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON THU.

LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...