Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 241017 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 617 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to build across the region into the mid week period. This will mean well above normal temperatures during the daytime hours, with a few inland record highs possible. A cold front looks to sweep across the region late Wednesday or Thursday with showers and possible thunder. It will also introduce much cooler air to the region for the late week period. At this looks like Hurricane Maria will not be a threat to our region thanks to the cold front sweeping her out to sea well to our south. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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616 AM...Minor ESTF update to ingest the 10z mesonet into near term grids. Prev Disc... At 06z...a 1021 millibar high was centered over western Pennsylvania. A stationary front was draped across Quebec and the Gaspe peninsula. GOES imagery showed clear skies across the forecast area under the surface high. We`ll see some valley stratus and fog develop over the next few hours that should quickly burn off following sunrise. For today...well above normal temperatures will continue with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. It`ll be cooler near the coast however as the light synoptic flow turns onshore. A Climate section was included below to mention Concord`s potential for record high temperatures today and Monday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... Tonight will be mostly clear under the ridge with low temperatures in the 50s and 60s. We`ll see valley stratus and fog develop once again. Monday will be another unseasonably warm day with high temperatures similar to today. There could be an isolated shower or thunderstorm over the higher terrain...otherwise another dry and humid day across the region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Warmth continues Monday night into Tuesday as a large upper level ridge remains intact over the Northeast. H8 temperatures around +18C with sunshine and good mixing will allow readings to top out in the lower to mid 80s most locations. Upper 70s expected along the coast due to an afternoon sea breeze. Models have backed off on the backdoor cold front, however there could be an east, southeast flow briefly developing over northern New England Tuesday night into early Wednesday. During the day Wednesday, upper level moisture associated with Maria may move up the coast from off of North Carolina, bringing filtered sunshine into the region. A cold front will approach from the west. As this system approaches, there will be widely scattered showers during the day. Modest instability may trigger a thunderstorm or two over northern areas as well. These showers and isolated storms over northern sections will continue Wednesday night as the front sweeps through the region. Canadian high pressure will then slowly build south and east on Thursday, bringing cooler air to the region. Daytime highs will reach the 70s however, which is still well above normal. The surface high will remain in place Friday, before a large scale upper level trough approaches the region for next weekend. During the period, Maria`s moisture will likely remain just south and east of Maine and New Hampshire. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term /through Monday/...VFR conditions except some Lcl LIFR btw 09z-12z today and Monday along the CT River Valley in stratus and fog. Long Term...VFR Monday through Wednesday. Areas of MFR ceilings Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Monday/...Winds and seas expected to remain below SCA threshold for the period under building area of high pressure. Long Term...Winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds. Long period swells may arrive from hurricane Maria late in the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... There is a moderate risk of rip currents today on all area beaches. && .CLIMATE... High temperature records may be in jeopardy in NH today and Monday. The record for today, the 24th in Concord NH is 90 degrees and occurred in 2010; the record for Monday, the 25th in Concord NH is 89 degrees and occurred in 1970. The forecasted high for both days is 89 degrees. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ ES is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.