Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 312340 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 740 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move across the region tonight followed by cool high pressure through Thursday. The high will gradually moves off to our east Thursday night and Friday. A warm front will approach during this time along with a chance of showers. Low pressure may result in unsettled weather late in the weekend and early next week. && 23z update... Cold front currently dropping south through southern zones with little more fanfare than a wind shift early this evening. Mid level clouds in northern zones beginning to melt away and this will be the trend through midnight when skies should be mostly clear. Have adjusted temp/td/sky grids based on current obs/sat pics. No other changes planned attm. Previous discussion... .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... A cold front will move across the region this evening. The front will not be all that noticeable except in the western ME mountains and northern Coos County where a few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm are possible. Cooler and drier air will filter in tonight the wake of the front. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Fair weather is expected on Wednesday with high pressure in control. It should warm up pretty good during the morning and early afternoon hours with a good amount of sun. During the afternoon SFC high pressure will build southwestward through the gulf of maine and bring a backdoor front inland during the late afternoon hours. This will result in rapid cooling on the coastal plain late in the afternoon and early evening. The low level cool air mass will spread westward overnight Wednesday night. The air mass should also moisten as the night wears on resulting in the development of low clouds and perhaps some fog and drizzle. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Overall expecting temperatures to be near or below normal right through the middle of next week. High temperatures in the 60s and 70s with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s should keep many air conditioners from appearing in windows for at least one more week. Cool onshore southeast flow continues on Sunday as high pressure shifts a little further east and a front moves east through the eastern Great Lakes. This will keep temperatures cool especially near the coast. The the north and west, temperatures may reach the mid 70s, but coastal locations will be lucky to reach the low 60s. On Friday the front makes its way through New England, with clouds and showers as it does so. As is typical with many fronts in New England, it will be warmer behind the front as winds go offshore and downsloping northwest winds on Saturday bring temperatures into the 70s... possibly near 80 in spots. An upper level low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes will begin to generate an onshore easterly flow again over the region on Sunday, with rain arriving Sunday evening into Monday. GFS and ECMWF still differ a bit on the timing of this, with the GFS slower and deeper with the trough and the ECMWF more progressive with it. But the two models have come into a little better alignment than yesterday, helping to narrow down the timing of heaviest rainfall to Sunday evening through Monday evening. It will take a few days for the upper low to fully exit the area so there could be some showers lingering through Tuesday with temperatures remaining a little cooler than normal for early June. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term...VFR conditions are expected Tonight into Wednesday evening. Low level moisture will increase on onshore flow Wednesday night and may allow conditions to deteriorate to IFR in low clouds and fog, mainly on the coastal plain. Long Term...Will probably see low clouds and fog (possibly IFR) continue through Thursday and into Friday along the coastal plain. A front moves in from the west on Friday bringing a chance of showers and eventually offshore winds which should bring some clearing. Should see a period of VFR from Saturday through much of Sunday. && .MARINE... Short Term...Conditions are expected to remain below small craft advisory thresholds tonight through Wednesday night. However, marine fog could limit visibilities Wednesday night. Long Term...Light winds expected over the waters as high pressure shifts into the Atlantic and a weak front tries to move into the Gulf of Maine. The next chance for advisory level conditions will probably be early next week when a low pressure system moves out of the great lakes and increases the easterly flow over the waters before it arrives. && .FIRE WEATHER... Relative humidity values are expected to increase each day starting Wednesday as temperatures cool and onshore flow develops. Winds will generally be light into the weekend. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$

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