Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 272258 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 658 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will remain over the area through Sunday and will shift offshore Sunday night, allowing us a window of dry weather. The next system over the eastern Great Lakes will lift north into Quebec Sunday night and will drag a trough toward the region on Monday into Tuesday with unsettled weather. Warmer weather returns by the mid to latter part of the week but with the chance of showers each day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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7 PM Update...Have adjusted the forecast a bit based on latest observational data, mainly sky cover and temperatures for the next few hours. Mostly sunny conditions should lead to early evening mostly clear skies across much of the area except for southern NH where the clouds will hang on. Eventually these clouds should spread northeastward. Otherwise, dry weather is expected to continue this evening. Previously... Weak high pres builds over the area tonight with partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light and some residual low level moisture will remain so patchy fog is possible later tonight in some areas. Temps will cool into the mid 40s to near 50.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pres crests over the area Sunday into Sunday night. Any early morning patchy fog will quickly burn off by mid morning. Skies will be partly sunny and due to the air mass being modified, the temps will be milder Sunday reaching into the 70s except along the coast where seabreezes will keep temps cooler into the 60s and coolest along the mid coast where temps will struggle to get out of the 50s. Sunday night will remain dry as the high begins to slip off the coast. Lows should be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At 500 mb, models continue to have run to run timing differences regarding configuration of omega block covering the ern half of NOAM and the N Atlantic, but the overall pattern will feature a closed near the southern tip of Greenland and another closed low just N of the Great Lakes. For the most part, especially early to mid week we should sit in the SW flow aloft ahead of the 500 mb low to our WNW, which will mean temps running near normal, and sunny breaks at times, despite a chc of showers. Initially, though with sfc low approaching from the west on Monday, will see onshore flow develop, so look for cloudy skies, cool temps and showers on Monday. Highs will only be in the low-mid 50s at the shore, and may reach around inland 60 at some inland locations, most likely in the downslope in the CT vly, although some DZ and F are possible Mon afternoon and Monday night as well. This system move through Monday night, with a bit of a break late Mon night into Tue morning. Another wave rotates around the low later Tue into Tue night, and another round of showers can be expected. Flow is weaker on Tue, and onshore flow will keep the coastal areas cool, but enough SW flow aloft should allow a little mixing in interior central and srn NH, where temps will be the highest generally in the upper 60s to around 70. Look for lows in the low 60s in wrn/central ME, and more around the upper 50s along the immediate coast. After that, it looks like 2 more waves are possible between Wed and Saturday, so showers will be possible a couple of days in this time frame, but also sunny periods can be expected as well. The W-SW flow should keep the marine lyr mostly off shore, although it will likely be cool at the beaches. Highs around 70 inland, and closer to 60 at the beach. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...VFR conditions. Due to some remaining residual low level moisture keeping dewpoints in the mid-upper 40s, some patchy fog expected possible allowing conditions to become variable to IFR til morning. Any fog will quickly burn off by 13z so all areas will be VFR Sunday into Sunday night. Long Term...Any morning VFR will drop to MVFR by afternoon, and probably IFR by late in the day in the day Monday continuing thru Mon night. Some improvement on Tue, although will probably be variable MVFR to IFR, with VFR and tempo MVFR in SHRA Wed and Thu. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds and seas to remain minimal tonight through Sunday night. Long Term...Winds could get near SCA briefly on Monday, but for now, look to stay below. Otherwise, winds/seas stay below SCA Mon night through Thu. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The astronomical high tide in Portland is 11.9 feet MLLW at 115 AM Sunday. Winds will remain light and seas low. The high water conditions have required a coastal flood statement to indicate some areas may exceed their minimal benchmark levels for isolated minor flooding. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE...Ekster is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.