Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 062031 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 431 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING GENERALLY COOL AND WET CONDITIONS. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE ENJOYED A BRIEF BREAK TODAY AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVED SOUTH INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MORE COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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UPDATE... A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURES WHICH HAVE JUMPED INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WILL RUN A NEW DIURNAL CURVE BASED ON THESE MAX READINGS. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MESOSCALE MODELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS TO THE PACKAGE. PREV DISC... IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT`S LOW CENTER...DRIER AIR WAS DRAWN SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE CLEARING TREND HAS PROVED TO BE EVEN MORE ROBUST THEN EARLIER FORECAST WITH ALL BUT EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE ENJOYING A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...MOST LOCATIONS WARMED INTO THE 60S WITH A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS WELL INLAND. THE CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE NORTHWARD TONIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO SERVE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ONSHORE FLOW AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE WEAKENING SYSTEM FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SPELL CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG NEAR THE COAST. IT`LL BE A COOL DAY IN THE ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST WITH READINGS IN THE 50S. ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND PARTICULARLY ALONG THE UPPER CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA WE`LL SEE A FEW LOWER 60S. MOSTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG AS SATURDAY`S WEAK SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TOWARDS DAWN FROM WEST-TO-EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH IMPACT WX: NONE. 500MB PATTERN PATTERN...DESPITE REMAINING MODERATELY AMPLIFIED...DOES SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE INTO NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE NOT HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THEPATTERN BEYOND DAY 4 OR SO RECENTLY. AT LEAST...AIR MASSES DO BEGIN MODIFY CLOSER TO NORMAL AS WE MOVE THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SUNDAY WILL START OFF WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WRN ZONES AS IT IS FORCED BY NEG TILTED WAVE MOVING AROUND CLOSED LOW. THIS SHOULD BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS...IN THE MORNING ACROSS NH...AND MIDDAY INTO MID-AFTERNOON IN ME. W-NW WINDS PICK UP A BIT RIGHT BEYOND THE FRONT...WITH SOME BREEZY CONDS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...AND MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY IN THE DOWNSLOPE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN SUN NIGHT AND MON WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. COULD SEE SOME CLOUDS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SHOULD COME IN AROUND NORMAL...MID 50S N TO MID 60S S. TUE-TUE NIGHT MAY SEE A WEAK LOW PRES TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH...BUT MAY BRING LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS TO SRN ZONES WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. HIGH PRES LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR THE MID- LATE WEEK WITH FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE 500MB RIDGE MOVING IN...AND TEMPS WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. COULD SEE SOME SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE FRI AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR...THEN AREAS OF MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SCT -SHRA DVLPNG. WIDESPREAD MVFR SAT AND SAT NIGHT IN CEILINGS AND -SHRA WITH LCL IFR PSB IN DRIZZLE AND FOG. LONG TERM...SUNDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE VARIABLE MVFR-IFR CONDS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST MID-LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR SUN NIGHT THRU WED. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUES OUTSIDE THE BAYS FROM THE MID COAST SOUTH TONIGHT IN ONSHORE FLOW. WE SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ACROSS ALL THE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SAT. WINDS AND SEAS BUILD THEREAFTER WITH SCA CONDITIONS RETURNING. LONG TERM...LOW-END SCA WINDS POSSIBLE BY SUN EVENING INTO MONDAY. 5-6 FT SWELL ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE KNOCKED BACK SOME BY NW WINDS LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT...BUT MAY STAY AROUND THAT HEIGHT OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER... RH VALUES WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED EACH DAY. A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT...PERHAPS A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL ON SUNDAY. A COOL AND MOIST WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK KEEPING FIRE DANGER IN CHECK. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE TO CREATE A THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. HIGH TIDE AT PORTLAND IS 11.9FT AT 11:35PM TONIGHT. WINDS... WHILE LIGHT... WILL BE ONSHORE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SEAS WHICH REMAIN IN THE 5 FOOT RANGE FROM THE PRIOR STORM WILL SERVE TO DRIVE WATER LEVELS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH-OVER. CURRENT GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FROM PORTLAND HARBOR SOUTHWARD THROUGH SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE WHICH WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ023-024. NH...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NHZ014. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ152-154. && $$

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