Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 041836 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 236 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLCONIC FLOW WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK WITH MAYBE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. A COASTAL LOW MAY MOVE UP THE COAST LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NH AND WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MAINE UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THEIR TRENDS OF BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AND INTENSIFYING TO SEVERE LEVELS. AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING THE CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END AS A COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR BOTH POPS AND TEMPERATURES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...SO THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MAY ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY EVENING CLEARING WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE PLACE. MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS. LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND THERE IS A MAJOR DISCREPENCY OVER WHETHER A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND BRINGING SOAKING RAINS TO NH AND SOUTHERN ME. THE EURO MODEL SHOWS THIS SCENERIO WHILE OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND...WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND MODEL WHICH BASICALLY HEDGES WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAT AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL BE STAYING AWAY THROUGHOUT THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. && .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/ ... AREAS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL IFR PSBL IN +TSRA ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH 01Z. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR WED MORNING THEN BECOMING MVFR IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING -SHRA/TSRA. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME IFR OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU WED NIGHT. LONG TERM...ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW OVER THE WEEKEND...THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SCA OR EVEN GALE FORCE WINDS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MARINE NEAR TERM...MARINE SHORT TERM...MARINE LONG TERM...MARINE AVIATION...MARINE MARINE...MARINE

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