Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 011021 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 521 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...BRINGING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY PRODUCING SUNNY SKIES BUT FRIGID TEMPERATURES. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN PORTIONS LATER IN THE DAY. USED A MODEL BLEND FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... MOST OF THE WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR SNOW BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. OVER NORTHERN NH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA FROM THE SW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL MODELS AGREE ON A SIMILAR TRACK AND THE ASSOCIATED QPF OF .50-.80 OVER SOUTHERN AREAS FROM THE SYSTEM WITH AROUND .25 OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WITH THE VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE THIS WILL BE AT LEAST A 15:1 RATIO SNOW SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS COULD BE AROUND A FOOT. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE, ENOUGH DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THROUGH THE MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLE TRACK TO SPREAD A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS ALL SOUTHERN AREAS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER NORTH IN THE MOUNTAINS LESS SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. THE STORM GRADUALLY EXITS LATER MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MORE ARCTIC AIR. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THERE ARE TWO SYSTEMS OF CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD... ONE AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND THE OTHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THIS MONDAY`S SYSTEM MOVES AWAY... FLOW ALOFT IS FLATTENED OUT SOMEWHAT AND NEAR ZONAL FLOW STEERS A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD. THIS PRODUCES A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT SHOULD PRODUCE ONLY A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE IT HAS TO WORK WITH. MODELS ARE ONLY DEPICTING LIGHT QPF... HOWEVER... THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET IS POSITIONED OVERHEAD... AND THIS WOULD INCREASE LIFT AND ULTIMATELY SNOWFALL. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NW WINDS. TEMPERATURES DROP SEVERAL DEGREES FOR FRIDAY BUT REBOUND BY SATURDAY AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A SECOND STORM FOLLOWS THE PATH OF THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY STORM. THE TWO BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM TRY AND PHASE THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY TOGETHER... AND DIG OUT A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE PROCESS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DUMP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM... VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WILL LOWER TO IFR AFT 06Z IN DEVELOPING SNOW OVER SOUTHERN AREAS SPREADING TO NORTHERN AREAS BY AROUND 12Z. ALL AREAS WILL BECOME IFR DURING MONDAY INTO MONDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR LATE MONDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR NH AND MAINE TUESDAY IN SNOW. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY NE WINDS AROUND 25 KTS EARLY TUESDAY. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR LOWER ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING IN SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVING FROM WEST TO EAST. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS AND THE FZ SPRAY ADV WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO WITH THE COASTAL LOW PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY, A GALE WATCH FOR INCREASING WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT HAS BEEN ISSUED. LONG TERM...GALES AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING. IN ADDITION...BITTERLY COLD TEMPS...WINDS...AND SEAS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ018-023. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ012>014. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ019>022-024>028. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ007. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ007>009. NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ003>015. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NHZ001-002. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ001- 002. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ANZ150>154. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
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