Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KGYX 231848
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
248 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016
Tonight clearing occurs across most areas as the dry west flow
continues but slowly diminishes. The cool cyclonic flow will
continue through midweek. By the end of the week another upper
trough will approach and move through the area with more unsettled
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A wind advisory will remain in effect for the rest of today.
Nearly full sunshine over southern NH has allow temperatures to
climb into the mid 50s. This has increased mixing values and
therefore max wind gusts as a deep unidirectional layer has
coupled in the region. The wind advisory is in effect until 5 pm.
Otherwise, clearing will gradually continue with upslope snow
showers continuing for a few more hours over the west, northwest
facing higher terrain. Cold air has arrived with mins expected
in the 20s overnight in the mountains.
Some clouds may spill into southern sections late tonight as a
short wave rotates through the base of the trough. There is a
small chance for showers, mainly in southern NH and southern York
County during the late night hours.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Clouds may continue over southern section early before the short
wave quickly exits to our east. However, there will be a
reinforcing shot of cold air advection during the day. This will
allow for scattered upslope snow showers in the mountains and
additional cloud cover over northern and central sections.
The nearby presence of the upper level low will allow for a
continuation of chilly and windy conditions Monday night. Plenty
of cloudiness is expected outside the downslope areas with
scattered snow showers continuing.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The models remain in decent agreement on the longwave pattern
through late next week. The upper trough initially over the
northeast CONUS will gradually lift out into the maritimes for the
second half of the work week. An upper ridge will briefly
traverse the region Thursday. By early Friday...shortwave energy
will approach from the Great Lakes and eventually carve out
another upper trough over the eastern CONUS as we head into next
weekend. Overall...the upper pattern will support temperatures
near or slightly below average for the period. In the
dailies...low pressure surface and aloft over eastern Canada will
provide cool unsettled weather in cyclonic flow...with the most
persistent clouds and precipitation across the higher terrain. By
Wednesday night...clearing and cold as heights begin to rise with
arrival of high pressure. Thursday looks to be the pick of the
week with a sunny start as the ridge crests across the area.
Clouds will be on the increase during the afternoon from west-to-
east ahead of our next disturbance approaching from the Great
Lakes. We`ll see light overrunning precipitation arrive Thursday
night. The forecast thermal properties across the higher terrain
suggest it could begin as some wet snow and sleet before
transitioning to plain rain. Onshore flow and a slow-moving
frontal system promise a damp cool day to round out the workweek.
While the numericals continue to diverge on shortwave timing and
strength for the upcoming weekend...proximity of the longwave
trough supports a cool and unsettled weekend for the forecast
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions expected in all southern and downslope
areas this evening, while in the mountains mvfr conditions are
expected in scattered rain and snow showers. Conditions will
improve to VFR in the mountains overnight. All areas will be VFR
on Monday and Monday night.
Tue - Wed...Areas of MVFR psb mainly in mtn -shra/-shsn.
Tues...Daytime NW sfc wnd gusting to 25 kt.
Short Term...A persistent West flow will keep Gales over the
outer waters into tonight. Strong SCA conditions are expected in
the bays through tonight. On Monday the west gradient winds will
continue but will not be as strong. A SCA for the outer waters on
Monday will likely be needed while in the bays, conditions should
remain just below criteria.
Tue - Wed...Small Craft conditions are likely.
NH...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NHZ007>015.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ151-
Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150-152-154.