Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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115 FXUS61 KGYX 221333 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 933 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The remnants of Jose will meander well south of Cape Cod into the weekend, gradually weakening with time. It will produce some gusty winds at times along the coast through today. Meanwhile, a large building ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather across our region through the weekend and into early next week. We`ll see a very nice stretch of dry and unseasonably warm weather with temperatures running well above normal Saturday through at least Tuesday. A front will remain nearly stationary north of our region Wednesday, before sweeping south as a cold front on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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935 am Update: minor ESTF update to input latest mesonet data. Only minor tweaks needed to current forecast. 610 AM...minor ESTF update to ingest the current mesonet into near term grids. Prev Disc... At 06z...a 987 millibar low...the remnants of Jose...was centered southeast of the 40N/70w benchmark. A 1023 millibar ridge was draped across northern New England. GOES imagery continues to show moisture streaming into the forecast area from Jose. This was mostly in the form of high clouds with some middle and low clouds confined to coastal sections. NWS Doppler Radar mosaic showed a few bands of showers across the coastal waters at moment. For today...Jose will wobble a bit further north and may bring a brief shower to seacoast New Hampshire and adjacent southwest coastal Maine this morning. Otherwise...a dry day with the most abundant sunshine found inland and along the international border. It`ll be another breezy day...especially along the coast with high temperatures mainly in the 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Jose retreats further offshore tonight as the ridge continues to build across northern New England. Skies will become mostly clear tonight with patchy valley stratus and fog developing once again in the predawn hours. Mostly sunny Saturday and continued unseasonably warm under the ridge with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s for the first full day of fall. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Very quiet conditions expected Saturday night with perhaps some moisture, mainly in the form of cloudiness over northern areas spilling over the upper level ridge. There will be some patchy inland fog. A strong upper level ridge will dominate for the later half of the weekend with mainly sunny and dry conditions. It will be very warm with H8 temperatures approaching +20C. With good mixing, this will allow temperatures in the lower to mid 80s in most locations. There will be an afternoon sea breeze near and along the coastline, keeping conditions a little cooler in spots and dropping readings back through the 70s. It will continue to be unseasonably warm and humid for the beginning of the work week next week with readings mainly in the 80s once again and dew points in the 60s. The record high temperature for Portland 88 degrees and we will likely fall several degrees short of that benchmark. There may be more cloudiness and perhaps a stray shower over far northern areas near the proximity of a stalled out front. During the midweek period, temperatures will likely cool off some as a maritime high pressure system allows for an east to southeast flow to develop near the surface. We will need to watch this time period for the possibility of maritime fog forming and overspreading portions of the coastline. Thursday will feature the best chance for showers as a strong cold front crosses through the region. This will occur as Maria passes by well southeast of the forecast area. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term /through Saturday/...Lcl IFR through 12z in valley stratus and fog otw VFR. SFC wind gusts today at coastal taf sites up to 25 kt. Lcl IFR once again tonight btw 09-12z Sat in valley stratus and fog. Long Term...Very dry conditions with the exception for a slight chance of a shower across the far north at HIE. Still VFR conditions expected. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Saturday/...The remnants of Jose will remain nearly stationary well south of Cape Cod through tonight. This will mean SCA conditions are expected through today over the outer waters. In Casco Bay...swells of 3-6 ft continue along the outer harbor areas so a SCA due to hazardous seas will be needed through today. An SCA for hazardous seas will likely be needed outside the bays for tonight. Long Term...Winds and seas generally below SCA levels. Some long period swells are possible from hurricane Maria later in the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Long period swells from the remnants of Jose will continue through today and into the weekend. Some minor beach erosion remains possible. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ023>027. NH...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ014. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ153. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150- 152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Marine SHORT TERM...Marine LONG TERM...Ekster

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