Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 221934 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 334 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN VERMONT THIS EVENING TO THE GULF OF MAINE LATE TONIGHT WHILE STRENGTHENING. THE LOW WILL MEANDER IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE OFF SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING TO THE MAINE COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...MAINLY PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. WENT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONIGHT BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. A RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT SHOULD BE ON TAP...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL QUITE A BIT INITIALLY WITH LIGHT RAIN BEGINNING TO FALL INTO SUCH A DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD IN THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION GETS THROWN BACK INTO NH AND MAINE AS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE. THE GFS IS MOST ROBUST...WITH SUBSTANTIAL QPF DURING THE DAY FOR SOUTHERN MAINE. THAT SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME... BUT WE THINK THE COASTAL PLAIN... ESPECIALLY THE MID COAST IS GOOD FOR AT LEAST LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS...IT WILL NOT SEEM LIKE A NICE DAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS IN THE MODELS OVERNIGHT TO SEE HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE WRAP AROUND FORCING GETS. EITHER WAY...WE EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. PERHAPS SOME GRAUPEL AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER? SHOWERS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE MID COAST. ELSEWHERE... DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE BUT NW WINDS WILL REALLY START TO INCREASE DESPITE THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE MINIMUM. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THURSDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW DRIFTING EAST IN THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHILE SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AIDS IN THE MIXING OF HIGHER WINDS FROM ALOFT. SHOULD SEE NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH OR HIGHER. PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COLDER ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE MOST AREAS FALL BELOW FREEZING. AFTER BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT ON FRIDAY... ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING WARMTH/MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES BY. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES AND THE AVAILABILITY OF COLD AIR... CONDITIONS COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW PRIMARILY IN HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MONDAY AS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS CAUGHT BETWEEN THE DEPARTED TROUGH TO THE EAST AND A LARGER TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THE RESULT IS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO AT LEAST MVFR TONIGHT IN SHOWERS...PERHAPS EVEN IFR IN SPOTS. THIS TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM...SHOWERS COME TO AN END THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35KT. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS LAST THROUGH FRIDAY BUT A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING A MARINE AIR MASS AND THUS LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+ KT GUSTS. LONG TERM...WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO FINALLY DROP HEADLINES BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE NEXT LOW. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ NEAR TERM...EKSTER SHORT TERM...EKSTER LONG TERM...KIMBLE

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