Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 220509 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 109 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW JERSEY WILL MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND INTENSIFY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM THAT WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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MIDNIGHT: INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN. ALSO INCREASED POPS A BIT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...AS MOST BREAKS SEEM TO BE FILLING IN ACROSS COASTAL MAINE. 855 PM UPDATE: BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE SPREADING W DUE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS ALL OF SRN AND WRN ME. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE NIGHT SO THE HIGH POPS AND QPF NEED NO CHANGES. QPF SO FAR HAS BEEN LIGHT IN MOST SPOTS. ACROSS MOST OF SRN AND WRN NH CONDS STILL REMAIN DRY BUT EXPECT LATER TONIGHT FOR THE RAIN TO REACH THOSE AREAS AS WELL. BRUSHED UP TEMPS/DEWPTS ETC WITH LATEST OBS DATA AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE NEEDED. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM. PREV DISC: LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS BEGUN TO CUT ITSELF OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW WHILE PULLING IN A LONG STREAM OF MOISTURE STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ONSHORE FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE IS ALREADY CAUSING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE FLOW HAS MOVED NORTH TOWARD CAPE COD AND WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN MAINE THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD PERIODS OF RAIN INTO WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. A FEW EMBEDDED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS AN INCH POSSIBLE. WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE AROUND... TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... UPPER LOW WILL SPIN TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY WHILE A WEAK MESOLOW DRIFTS NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CONTINUAL STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AIDED BY LIFT FROM THE MESOLOW AND WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH... EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN ON WEDNESDAY... BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD BY THURSDAY. THE MOIST CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PULLED BACK INTO MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE PROVIDING RAIN... HEAVY AT TIMES... THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT... THE MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS THE LOW PASSES BY. TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT VARY MUCH. HIGHS AND LOWS MAY BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF EACH OTHER... GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 40S AND 50S. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. WHILE RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOODING... THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND TOTAL AMOUNTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING ALONG STREAMS AND RIVERS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE RIVER FLOODING... FROM EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN MAINE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL FINALLY START TO PULL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWING THIS WILL WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT RACES SE ACROSS CANADA AND WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THRU NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHERN LOCATIONS. THE EURO IS STILL THE COLDEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SOME AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...BUT FOR NOW A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKING LIKE A NICE PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL. RIDGING OVER THE AREA SHOULD HELP PUSH OUR TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY WITH T850 OF 15C OVER THE REGION. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN RAIN WITH PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS BAD DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THRU THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND THEN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE... NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE STRENGTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MAINE WHERE 15 FT WAVES ARE POSSIBLE. LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING BUT MOSTLY DUE TO HIGH SEAS. && .HYDROLOGY... TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 5 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR. ANY FLOODING WHICH DOES OCCUR MAY LINGER BEYOND THURSDAY AS WATERS SLOWLY DRAIN TOWARD THE SEA. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 9.5 FEET OR SO DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. IT WOULD TAKE A SURGE OF 2 FEET OR MORE TO CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING. AT THIS POINT... COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER... THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CAUSE A SURGE OF MORE THAN 1 FOOT AND WILL COMBINE WITH 10 TO 15 FT WAVES TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLASH OVER AND BEACH EROSION. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO BE IMPACTED WILL BE THE SEACOAST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK COUNTY MAINE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028. NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-013-014. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CURTIS SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE... HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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