Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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094 FXUS61 KGYX 051936 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 336 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING GENERALLY COOL AND WET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND BRUSH COASTAL SECTIONS WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK ON FRIDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MORE COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED AN AREA OF RAIN EXPANDING ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND AND CAPE COD. THIS AREA WAS DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND WILL IMPACT EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL AS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... BEHIND THE OFFSHORE LOW...SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WE`LL SEE SOME CLEARING OVER NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH THE MAINE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS INTO CENTRAL AND MID COAST MAINE. OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST COASTAL MAINE...WE MAY HAVE TO SETTLE FOR A FEW SUNNY BREAKS. IT`LL BE A DRY DAY FOR A CHANGE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SHOWER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND STALL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM AND RETURNING ONSHORE FLOW SPREADING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ONCE AGAIN. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH IMPACT WX: NONE EXPECTED. MODELS INDICATING 500MB HEMISPHERIC PATTERN WILL DEAMPLIFY TO SOME DEGREE BUT OVERALL TROUGHING OVERING ERN NOAM LOOK TO BE PERSISTENT FEATURE INTO NEXT WEEK. STILL...WILL SOME PERIODS OF RIDGING...WARMER 850 TEMPS OVERALL /BUT NO BIG WARM UP/ AND ALSO LESS PROCLIVITY FOR ONSHORE FLOW AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL HELP TEMPS HOVER CLOSER TO NORMAL. HOWEVER...BEFORE ALL THIS HAPPENS...WE HAVE TO GET THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WILL NOT BE A GREAT ONE AS WE DEAL WITH CONTINUED EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW ON SATURDAY AS 500MB LOW CROSSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH. SATURDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL WITH MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS...AND SOME PATCHY DZ AS WELL. THE ONLY AREA THAT MIGHT NOT BE TOO BAD WILL BE N AND OF THE MTNS WHERE DOWNSLOPE COULD ALLOW FOR P/SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. OTHERWISE TEMPOS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO MID TO UPPER 50S AS YOU HEAD INLAND TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS. THE UPPER LVL DRIFTS OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT...AND MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW FLOW SUN MORNING...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW BREAKS OF SUN BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BRING A ROUND SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL SHIFT A LITTLE WITH WARMER TEMPS...NEAR 60 ON THE COAST.,..AND LOW TO MID 50S IN THE MTS AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. SFC RIDGE THEN BUILDS BENEATH WNW ALOFT...WITH MONDAY FEATURING SOME SUN...AND HIGHS A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL...MID- UPPER 50S N TO LOW-MID 60S S. ANOTHER 500 MB WAVE WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THRU TUE-WED...WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF SHRA. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT...WITH THE EURO SHOWING A RIDGE FOR THU...AND THE GFS CLOSING OFF A LOW TO OUR WEST. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE EURO FOR NOW AND KEPT THU DRY. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TONIGHT. NE SFC WND COULD GUST UP TO 25 KT VCNTY OF KPSM AND KPWM. IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGHOUT ON FRI WITH SCT MVFR PSB ALONG THE MA/NH BORDER. AREAS OF MVFR DVLP S OF A KLEB TO KPWM LINE FRI NIGHT IN CEILINGS AND -SHRA. LONG TERM...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...PROBABLY VARYING BETWEEN MVFR- IFR MOSTLY EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE SUN MORNING...THEN A ROUND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED SUN AFTERNOON WILL BRING SEVERAL HOURS OF MORE RESTRICTIONS. MON AND TUE LOOK VFR. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...LOW PRES CROSSING THE GULF OF ME TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS. WINDS AND ESPECIALLY SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH FRI WITH LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY OUTSIDE THE BAYS. LONG TERM...PERSISTENT LIGHT E FLOW WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO AROUND 5 OR 6 FT THIS WEEK...MAINLY IN SWELL. A COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU ON SUNDAY AND W-NW WINDS COULD APPROACH SCA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. && .FIRE WEATHER... MORE RAIN WILL BRUSH THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY COASTAL ZONES. COOL AND MOIST WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MODERATE TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY OVER THE WEEKEND. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY OFFSHORE. BUILDING SEAS AND A MARGINAL SURGE WILL BRING THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE (AROUND 11 PM) TO THE FLOOD STAGE BENCHMARK AT BOTH PORTLAND HARBOR AND FORT POINT, NH. IT`S LIKELY WE`LL SEE SPLASH-OVER AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF THIS HIGH TIDE AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR PORTLAND AREA SOUTHWARD TO THE NEW HAMPSHIRE SEACOAST. THE NORTHEAST FLOW LINGERS FRIDAY...AND RESIDUAL SEAS WILL LINGER AS WELL. HIGH TIDES WILL BE EVEN HIGHER FRIDAY NIGHT...AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SURGE TO SURPASS FLOOD STAGE...ESPECIALLY FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS SOUTH. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ023-024. NH...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ014. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ SCHWIBS/CEMPA

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