Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 262210 AAA AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 610 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM AND MORE HUMID SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO RETURN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... .UPDATE... SREF MODEL INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MIDCOAST FROM PENOBSCOT BAY TO JUST EAST OF PORTLAND AND OFFSHORE. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE UPDATED FORECAST THIS EVENING AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER AS WELL. POPS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AND ALSO ADDED A LITTLE THUNDER FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS MUCAPE INCREASES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. && PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NH THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. THEN LATER TONIGHT A FEW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF NH AND THE MOUNTAINS OF ME AS VERY MINOR IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. OTHERWISE...A WARM MUGGY SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 60S. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MUGGY AS THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE ARRIVING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BECOME VERY HIGH. INCREASING SHEAR IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATING NORTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND THEN MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION AND SOME OF THE TSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. AT SOME POINT IF SOME TRAINING OF SOME OF THE CELLS OCCURS LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS AND POPS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN CLIMATOLOGY PREFERS FOR A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...A WARM AND HUMID START TO THE DAY SHOULD GIVE THE AREA A HEAD START ON MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY LATE MORNING. WITH INSTABILITY...FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND WIND SHEAR INCREASING JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT...A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. A FEW COULD BE SEVERE. COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN OF VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS COULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD MUCH NEEDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. SOME COASTAL AND EVEN INLAND STRATUS AS WELL AS FOG NEAR KRKD AND EAST OF KPWM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT LOCALLY LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR. LONG TERM...LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3-6 FT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED. FOR TONIGHT INTO WED WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA BUT WILL INCREASE WED NIGHT. LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. && .FIRE WEATHER... WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK...AND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN IT HAS BEEN. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152- 154. && $$ UPDATE...HANES

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