Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 301934 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 334 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY...PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE ON TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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LOWER LVL CONVERGENCE AREA STILL PRODUCING SOME SHRA OVER ERN ZONES AND LIFTING SLOWLY NE...WITH A LITTLE LINE EXTENDING SSW. THESE WILL NOT MOVE TOO MUCH IN THE FEW HOURS AND SHOULD DRIFT NNE...BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND 22-23Z. FOR TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS SOME WEAK RIDGING MOVES THROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS ALOFT. SHOULD BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...WITH LOWS DOWN INTO 50S MOST SPOTS AND 40S IN THE COOLER MTN LOCATIONS...AND VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE USUAL SPOTS. MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS OR AC INCREASING IN THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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500 MB WAVE SWINGS THRU ON THU...COINCIDENT WITH 500MB COLD POOL...WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. THESE AREAS COULD SEE A FAIR AMT OF SHOWERS WITH SCT TSRA. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WILL LKLY SEE MORE SUN AND WARMER TEMPS...WITH LESS COVERAGE OF SHRA...BUT MORE OF THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE THUNDER. SHOULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL...WITH AN OUTSIDE THREAT FOR LARGER HAIL IF UPDRAFTS CAN PULSE UP ENOUGH AND HOLD A CORE UP FOR AWHILE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FRO AROUND 70 IN THE COOLER MTN SPOTS...TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80 ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE WAVE EXITS JUST AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING...SO THE SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY DURING LATE AFT AND EARLY EVE...WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER SUNSET...AND ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPS RUNNING BLO NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS..,WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S ONCE MORE.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST..ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE. FRIDAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY INITIALLY AND THIS ALONG WITH +13 DEGREES C AT 850MB WILL BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SATURDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOLOW TRAVELING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY MAY BRIEFLY FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MORE PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW ON WEDNESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN KRKD..SHOULD SEE VFR INTO THE EVENING AT ALL THE TERMINALS...WITH VLY FOG DEVELIPING AT KHIE/KLEB...AND MAYBE A LITTLE FOG AROUND SUNRISE AT KCON. KRKD IS EXPECTED TO STAY IFR OR LOWER THRU THE NIGHT...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THU MORNING. SCT SHRA/TSRA COULD PRODUCE BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTION THU AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. LONG TERM...PREVAILING VFR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING MVFR OF LOWER CONDITIONS. ALSO EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW OFFSHORE WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE AWAY FROM SHORE THU INTO THU NIGHT. LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ CEMPA/HANES

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