Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 300401 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1201 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE SOUTH OF CAPE COD ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE REGION COOL AND WET INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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MIDNIGHT...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT OBS. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...AND MINS WERE ADJUSTED UP JUST A BIT IN SOME SPOTS. ALSO RADAR ECHOES OF 10-20 DBZ OVER SW NH AT ABOUT 10K FT AND VERY LKLY NOT GOING TO REACH THE GROUND AS THEY WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. REMAINING MARINE STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT AND DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FARTHER W A WEAK S/WV WILL CROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR SRN NH ESPECIALLY...BUT CLEARING OR THINNING OF CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT. TO THE N WE SHOULD RADIATE QUICKLY AFTER DARK...WITH SRN ZONES TAKING LONGER TO REACH LOW TEMPS. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT THOUGH FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES SAT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE MORE DRY ALOFT AND MARINE STRATUS LOOKS LIKE LIKELY THAN TODAY. HOWEVER THE WIND OFF THE WATER WILL STILL KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLER THAN THE INTERIOR. MESOSCALE MODELS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS LOOK...SO TEMP BLENDS ARE MORE HEAVILY WEIGHTED IN THEIR DIRECTION. NEXT WAVE APPROACHES SAT NIGHT. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPS OVERNIGHT. PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD DELAY UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SUN...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS SNEAK INTO WRN NH BEFORE THAT TIME. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE TO START SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT VERY ORGANIZED... BUT WILL BECOME MORE SO AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND ON MONDAY. SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO FORM AND DEEPEN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF CAPE COD EXPECT A DECENT PRECIPITATION SHIELD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW TO AFFECT THE REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS RAIN AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT A FEW MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST LATE ON TUESDAY AS THE FLOW OVER THE EAST COAST BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING WEDNESDAY NIGHT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND PASS OVER CAPE COD BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MARINE STRATUS IN THE PROCESS OF SCATTERING OUT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE W OVERNIGHT BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE VFR THRU SUN MORNING. SELY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PICK UP AGAIN SAT FOR PSM...PWM...RKD...AND AUG...MAYBE AS FAR W AS MHT. LONG TERM...VFR TO START SUNDAY BUT AS PRECIPITATION SETS UP SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH SOME LIFR AREAS POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW GENERALLY S TO SE WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT. WINDS GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS...AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS MAY COME UP ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. && .FIRE WEATHER... ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A MARITIME INFLUENCE INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND UNDER RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT FUELS REMAIN DRY SO FIRE DANGER MAY STAY ELEVATED. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE FOR MANY OF THOSE LOCATIONS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CEMPA SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE... FIRE WEATHER...

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