-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 292228
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
628 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A
LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
625 PM...CU/STRATOCU WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE HEATING. ACTUALLY
SEEING SOME BUILDUPS TO THE N OF THE OFFICE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY...BUT THESE DIMINISH TOO. ALSO...NOTING RETURN OF THIN
SMOKE LYR FROM THE VIS SAT IN THE UPPR LVLS THIS EVE...AS
TRAJECTORY WOULD ONCE AGAIN BRING IT IN FROM LARGE AREA OF FIRES
IN CANADIAN NW TERRITORIES AND NRN ALBERTA. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE MID TO UPPR 40S N AND 50S MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE. EXPECT SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG AS WELL.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE MORNING. AND WILL LEAVE A CLEAR SKY FOR A
SHORT TIME BUT EXPECT CU TO DEVELOP WITH THE CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING IN EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL KICK OFF SHOWERS BEFORE DAWN ON THURSDAY SO POPS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALSO ALTHOUGH FOG MAY NOT BE A BIG FACTOR
DEPENDING ON WHEN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY STARTS WITH A LONG WAVE TOUGH IN PLACE FROM JAMES BAY DOWN
TO THE GREAT LAKES. WE WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH
THIS TROUGH BEFORE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY.

THURSDAY WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE REGION. ALOFT A
JET STREAK WILL SERVE TO CONCENTRATE CONVECTION ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM ACK TO YQB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 800-1000 J/KG
OF CAPE WITH A SIGNIFICANT PORTION IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE,
COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE FOR
ALL THE FACTORS COMBINING TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME IS TOO LOW SO
HAVE LEFT JUST THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOMENT.

SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIMITED
INSTABILITY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS TRY TO REPLACE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE...WITH VARYING TIMING AND SUCCESS. HAVE
LEFT POPS FAIRLY LOW BASED ON A CONSENSUS BLEND, BUT EXPECT TO SEE
SOME VARIABILITY WITH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS IT GETS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT IFR IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG TONIGHT.

LONG TERM... EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL EXTEND THE SCA FOR SEAS THROUGH 3AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE QUIET ON THE WATERS.

LONG TERM...QUIET WATERS NO HEADLINES EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...