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000
FXUS61 KGYX 061146
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
646 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THEN STALL
OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT, THIS WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW TONIGHT. COLDER HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A DRY BUT COLD WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE REGION PRODUCING A MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF SNOW THAT
MAY CHANGE TO MIXED PRECIPITATION BEFORE ENDING MONDAY NIGHT. A VERY
COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE THE SYSTEM MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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645 AM UPDATE: HAVE DISCONITNUED THE FOG ADVSRY AS SHWRS MOVING
INTO THE AREA HAVE CAUSED ENOUGH MIXING TO ALLOW FOG TO LIFT AND
VSBYS TO IMPROVE. TWEAKED TEMPS BASED ON LATEST OBS...OTRW NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISC:
WILL CONTINUE THE FOG ADVSRY THRU 8 AM DUE TO THE CURRENT
WIDESPREAD FOG OBSERVED THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL MIXING
FROM THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT OCCURS THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE
THE FROPA WELL OFF THE COAST BY 18Z. RADAR/SAT PIX SHOWS A NICE
SWATH OF PCPN ASSOC ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT ATTM TO THE W AND
THIS WILL MOVE THRU THIS MORNING AS MODELS SUGGEST. TEMPS WILL BE
MILD SO IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IN THE AFTN ANY LEFTOVER
SHWRS IN THE MTNS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNW SHWRS AS CAA ALOFT
TAKES OVER. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT THE FRONT STALLS OFF THE COAST AND A WEAK S/WV MOVES NEWD
ALONG THE WSWLY FLOW ALOFT AND ALLOWS SOME LGT OVERRUNNING LGT SNOW
TO DEVELOP N OF THE STALLED FNT. ACCUMS OF A FEW INCHES IS
EXPECTED OVER SRN AREAS WHILE FURTHER N LITTLE TO NO ACCUMS
EXPECTED. RFC QPF SEEMED REASONABLE WITH MODELS GUID. NAM WAS
FURTHER S WITH QPF AND GFS FURTHER N WITH EURO ALMOST IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TWO. CONSIDERING ONLY 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED AND ALSO
AN EXPECTED RAPID CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WE DIDN`T SEE THE NEED TO
ISSUE A WINTER WX ADVSRY ATTM SINCE IT FALLS BELOW THE CRIT. USED
THE BLENDED MODELS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

ON SAT HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NRN NEW ENGL WITH COLDER TEMPS BUT
A RETURN TO MOSUNNY SKIES OVER MOST DOWNSLOPING AREAS WHILE IN THE
MTNS P/C CONDS ARE EXPECTED. BLEND OF MODELS FOR MAX TEMPS ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR AND CHILLY WEATHER. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
RESULTANT WAA PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT
AND MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SNOW DEVELOPMENT FROM SW TO NE BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.
WARMING IN THE COLUMN ACROSS SOUTHERN/COASTAL ZONES WILL PROBABLY
TAKE PLACE MONDAY AND PERHAPS ALLOW FOR A BRIEF TRANSITION TO
MIXED PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE STEADY PRECIP GETS CUT OFF BY A
QUICKLY ADVANCING DRY SLOT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THEREAFTER...DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE THE MORE LIKELY
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS IS QUITE COMMON WITH THESE SOUTHWEST FLOW
/ALOFT/ TYPE EVENTS AS THERE IS NOTHING TO STOP THE DRY SLOT FROM
FLYING IN. OVERALL...THIS LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVELY LIGHT
EVENT...WITH A 2-5 INCH SNOWFALL LOOKING LIKE THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME AT THIS POINT...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

DRYING TAKES PLACE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER TAKING SHAPE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR LOOKS LIKELY MIDWEEK.
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&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TO CONT THRU
12Z. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...AND PROBABLY
TO VFR AT THE INLAND TERMINALS FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR TO IFR IN MIXED PCPN
AND THEN SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.


LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SW
TO NE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD
BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR OR LOWER BY 12Z MONDAY. IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY DAYTIME...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
FORESEEN LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...WILL DISCONTINUED THE SCA FOR SEAS AS SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CRIT FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD THRU SAT.

LONG TERM...SCA LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
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&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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&&

$$