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000
FXUS61 KGYX 011954
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
254 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING
SOME LIGHT SNOW. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP IN ITS WAKE
ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY
NIGHT PUSHING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION...AND PRODUCING
A PERIOD OF SNOW AND MIXED RAIN OR SNOW ALONG THE COAST. AS THE
LOW SHIFTS TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
BROAD SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION
HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SUBLIMATE AS IT INTERACTS WITH A VERY
DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT. 12Z MODEL SUITE AND MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON THE PRECIP FIELDS AND THEREFORE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. NEVERTHELESS...THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE 3-4 INCHES
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MIDCOAST AND OVER FAR SOUTHERN NH NEAR THE
MASS BORDER. THIS WILL BE JUST BELOW SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

IT WILL BE A MUCH MILDER NIGHT THAN THOSE OF THE LAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS WITH READINGS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 DEGREES FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS DISJOINTED FROM THE SURFACE REFLECTION
ON MONDAY...WITH THE SHORT WAVE CROSSING LAKE ONTARIO BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A PASSING SNOW SHOWER WITH THIS
FEATURE. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FACING HIGHER TERRAIN...SOME
UPSLOPING PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR.

AS ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN DROP BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
HEADING DOWNWARDS AGAIN AS WELL...BRIEFLY APPROACHING WIND CHILL
ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A SUNNY START ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
REGION. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TUESDAY
NIGHT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH WIDESPREAD WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW EXPECTED. MID/LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EXCEPT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A BRIEF MIX WITH RAIN MAY OCCUR BEFORE
ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BLEND OF MODELS QPF SUGGESTS A
SNOWFALL OF 2-6 INCHES EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY ALL MODELS INDICATE
THE SNOW TO BE OVER BY EARLY MORNING AND THEN SOME CLEARING AND TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE 40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA AS H85 TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MILD INTO THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING LIGHT
DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND. COLD AIR RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EAST AND
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LIKE A BROKEN RECORD.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY LOWERING AND
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING IN LIGHT SNOW. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM...
VFR TUESDAY BECOMING IFR TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE MID AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...WILL BE ISSUING GALE WARNINGS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS WILL JUST TOUCH
GALE FORCE WELL AWAY FROM THE SHORELINE. ALONG THE BAYS...EXPECT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TYPE WINDS INTO TOMORROW EVENING.

LONG TERM...
SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED IN THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE SCA MAY ALSO BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW.
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&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
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&&

$$