Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KGYX 230311
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1111 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016
Low pressure will weaken south of Nova Scotia overnight as
another area of low pressure develops off the mid atlantic coast.
Low pressure will slowly move north up the east coast Monday
through Tuesday and will move into southeast Quebec Tuesday
night. A trailing cold front will slowly cross the region
Wednesday through Wednesday night and will stall over southern
New England Thursday. High pressure will build in from the
northeast Thursday night through Friday and will hold over the
region through Saturday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --11pm... Some fog starting to develop at HIE as skies clear.
Lowered PoP and adjusted for current temps.
8pm...Precipitation has come to an end across most of the area.
clouds will also start to dissipate overnight. Have added some fog
after midnight for the favored valley locations as clearing skies
and low level moisture from the earlier showers combine.
5pm... lightning has come to an end as the stronger showers fade
with the sun. Have updated for current temps and removed thunder
Low pressure moving east of Cape Cod this afternoon is
generating some precipitation... but the vast majority of it is
well offshore. However... a weak frontal boundary dropping south
out of Canada is providing a focus for convection over the
mountains. Most of the convection is in the form of showers... but
there have been a few lightning strikes with it as well.
Convection is primarily driven by diurnal heating and should fall
apart quickly this evening as the sun sets.
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough in place over New England tomorrow and tomorrow
night. Another low pressure system is expected to form off the
mid-Atlantic coast on Monday and begin moving north and east.
Again though... it looks like the low will stay far enough to our
east to not really generate much in the way of precipitation over
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure south of Cape Cod Tuesday morning will slowly shift
north into the Gulf of Maine by evening. Moist onshore flow will
have much of the coast socked in with ocean stratus by daybreak
and this will overspread most of the forecast area during the
day. Little in the way of lift with this system so only looking
for scattered showers and areas of drizzle...especially in coastal
zones. May see enough instability in far northwest zones and the
Connecticut valley to pop off a thunderstorm or two but a majority
of this activity will likely be north of the border. Will see more
seasonable temps with highs generally ranging through the 60s.
Surface low will slowly continue northward Tuesday night ending up
in southeast quebec by Wednesday morning. Expect the majority of the
region to see a dry night although a few scattered showers will be
possible. Stationary front to the northwest of the region will
gradually sag south into the region Wednesday. Some marginal
instability will develop by early afternoon but with little in the
way of forcing along this boundary...not looking for anything too
widespread in the way of convection. Highs on Wednesday will push
well above normal with highs ranging through the 70s to lower 80s in
southern New Hampshire.
Frontal boundary will push south of the region Wednesday night with
skies gradually clearing overnight. Lows will range through the 50s
from north to south.
High pressure building in from the west will produce mostly sunny
skies on Thursday. Temps will soar well above normal with readings
from the mid 70s north to the mid 80s south. Afternoon sea breeze
will cap temps along the coast in the 70s.
Re-enforcing shot of high pressure noses in from the northeast
Thursday night. Increasing moist onshore flow may result in some
ocean stratus in coastal zones by Friday morning but the remainder
of the forecast area should see just partly cloudy skies. Expect a
mild night with lows in the 50s.
Any ocean stratus in southern zones friday morning should burn off
through early afternoon as high pressure continues to build in from
the northeast. Marine layer will hold high temps in the 60s across
much of western Maine with the exception of counties bordering
New Hampshire. Farther west readings will top out in the mid 70s
to lower 80s. Expect high pressure to hold over the region Friday
night and Saturday with moist onshore flow gradually veering to
the southwest as upper level ridging builds over the northeast.
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...Primarily VFR this evening... with some MVFR
conditions possible over northern and western portions of New
Hampshire in showers. All locations should go VFR tonight for at
least a while. However... there could be some IFR fog that
develops in favored valley locations. All locations should be VFR
Long Term...ifr/lifr ceilings/vsby Tuesday into tuesday night.
VFR Wednesday through Thursday. Areas of mvfr ceilings Friday
morning in coastal areas...becoming VFR in the afternoon.
Short Term...Offshore low pressure system is expected to generate
waves and swells that meet Small Craft Advisory criteria tonight.
This should mainly affect the outer waters... while the bays
should stay below SCA criteria.
Long Term...no problems noted.
No fire weather concerns expected.
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MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ150-152-154.
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