Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 260340 AAD AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 1140 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Sunshine and warmer weather will continue this evening ahead of a cold front. The front will bring clouds and a few showers and thunderstorms to the area this into early this evening. A ridge of high pressure will build over the area tonight...then hold over the region on Thursday as a warm front approaches from the west. The warm front will stall over the region Thursday night and Friday and will finally push east of the region on Saturday. A cold front will cross the region Saturday night then stall just to our south on Sunday. The front will return north as a warm front on Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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1140 PM Update... Adjusted temperatures for this update with portions of the area still quite warm...in the 60s and 70s...but most of the area in the 50s. Otherwise dropped PoPs as showers have moved offshore and meso models are not indicated anymore precipitation overnight. 750 PM Update... The forecast has been adjusted to account for less coverage of showers and to take out mention of thunderstorms. We have not had any lightning strikes over the past couple of hours and the convection is on the decline as daytime heating is lost. This should be it for precipitation except for the odd sprinkle of two over the highest peaks. 425 PM Update... Showers are now moving south along both the sea breeze and the pre-frontal trough. Have updated to expand PoPs for southern sections. Stronger cells are located over eastern Maine where lightning activity has increased. Will keep thunder in our forecast for the time being. Also adjusted temperatures... dew point temperatures... and winds for this update. Previous discussion... Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening hours over northern areas. This is the area with the most instability and best dynamics for the next several hours. Modest CAPE, steep low/mid level lapse rates and the approaching trough and surface cold front will trigger the convection. This instability will be offset by lowering dew points currently occurring over northwestern sections as the wind shifts to the west. Otherwise, expect patchy valley fog to develop overnight. It will be mild with temperatures mainly in the 50s for overnight lows, however southernmost NH may hold in the lower 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... After patchy morning fog, expect mainly sunny skies on Thursday. Some high and mid level moisture may spill over the ridge late in the day as a front south of Maine and New Hampshire remains in close proximity. With the sunshine and H8 temperatures around +12C, expect temperatures to climb into the 80s once again. There will be an afternoon sea breeze, but even coastal residents will see temperatures make it into the 70s. The chance for showers increases Thursday night as the front begins to track back to the north as a warm front. A very weak upper level disturbance will assist in triggering the precipitation. Patchy fog is likely once again in the valley locations and areas that receive local rainfall. The best chance for thunder will be over southwestern portions of the forecast area lake at night. Will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for the late night period. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper ridge axis will continue over New England through the weekend and into Monday. This ridge will be what we call a "dirty ridge" as several minor short waves combined with ample moisture move through the ridge before getting dampened out and setting off scattered convection at times. Temperatures will be mild and accepted the blended model guidance. With this scenario timing of most convection should be in the afternoons and evenings. used the superblend for pops. By Tuesday and Wednesday models show a drier cooler canadian air mass trying to build south across the area. Some instability showers still can`t be ruled out for now with a cyclonic flow and cooler temps aloft. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term...Sct MVFR across the mtns this PM and evening with brief lcl ifr psb in -shra/tsra north. Areas of mvfr and lcl ifr dvlpg btw 08-12z Thu in some valley stratus and fog...bcmg vfr throughout aft 13z Thu. Long Term...generally vfr except mvfr in any scattered showers. && .MARINE... Short Term...No flags expected. Long Term...No flags. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm temperatures this evening but with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Good relative humidity recovery follows for tonight. Thursday will be one of the only dry days of the week. Afternoon relative humidity values on Thursday may hover near 30%...but winds will be light. We are forecasting all areas to receive rainfall this week albeit light. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Hanes SHORT TERM...Cannon LONG TERM...Marine

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