Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 182138 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 538 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will hold over the region through tonight as Jose approaches from the south. Jose will move south of Cape Cod Tuesday and Wednesday and then drift south Thursday. High pressure builds over the region Thursday and through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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530PM UPDATE... Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for areas most likely to see dense fog overnight. We are already seeing the low visibility fog moving into coastal areas. Wind flow tonight may begin to slowly shift to the northeast, so it is possible that dense fog clears out of northern areas early while it gets stuck up against the terrain of New Hampshire. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... Patchy dense fog will become more widespread with time later this evening as dew points remain in the 60s under light winds. The most dense fog will likely be along the coast once again. Temperatures will not move all that much with readings holding near the dew points.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Jose will continue to move northward on Tuesday. Expect areas of dense fog and drizzle in the morning to be replaced by periods of light rain approaching the coastline during the afternoon. A northeast flow should develop as well. With the precipitation and gradient developing, some of the fog will lesson and mix out as visibilities increase. High surf is expected along the coast with high surf advisories continuing during the day. These may need to be extended into Wednesday. Dangerous rip currents are possible. The rain will spread inland Tuesday night, however drier air will be entrained into Jose. Some of the outer bands of moisture may reach south-central areas and dissipate in place due to the developing dry air in the lower levels. QPF: Models continue to back off on the rainfall with about a half inch of rain possible along and near the coast where rain is needed at this time.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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All indications and models show Jose passing near the 40n70w benchmark and then east. Southern areas of ME/NH will be on the northern outer fringe of the system and will receive some much needed rainfall while over northern areas, they may remain dry. A very strong blocking high to the north will supply dry air from the north, this will also help try to suppress the rain even over southern areas. Winds over land areas may become breezy over southern areas Wednesday. Jose then drifts south Wednesday night and Thursday allowing drier air to move across the region. The large blocking high will rebuild over the area Thursday and thru the weekend so a return to dry and pleasant weather with mostly sunny days and clear nights. Stayed close to guidance for temperatures which will average above normal.
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&& .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term...IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities tonight in areas of dense fog. Patchy drizzle over southern sections. Conditions are slow to improve over the region on Tuesday, eventually possibly mixing out by late in the day to IFR conditions. IFR conditions will continue Tuesday night. Long Term...IFR conditions will persist into early afternoon Wed. Conditions will become VFR by Wed night and continue VFR through Saturday. && .MARINE... Short Term...Large, long period swells will enter the Gulf of Maine tonight. SCAs will remain in effect as winds increase by Tuesday night as well. Long Term...Long period swells will continue Wed into Fri as Jose slowly moves well south of Cape Cod. Northeast winds will increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as well with northerly SCA winds expected, some gusts to over 30 kts are possible over the southernmost outer waters. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Hurricane Jose is forecast to cross the southern New England waters on Wednesday. This will result in long period swell. Matrices suggest there will be increased risk for beach erosion and splash-over during this period. For now, the storm surge guidance (ESTOFS) is only indicating less than a half foot of storm surge, so coastal flooding is not expected. However the large swells may lead to splash-over, mainly along the coast south of Portland beginning tonight. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for MEZ012>014- 018>028. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for MEZ023>028. NH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for NHZ010-013-014. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for NHZ014. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ150>154.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE...Kimble SHORT TERM...Cannon LONG TERM...Marine

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