Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 240432 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1232 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Tonight clearing occurs across most areas as the dry west flow continues but slowly diminishes. The cool cyclonic flow will continue through midweek. By the end of the week another upper trough will approach and move through the area with more unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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1230 AM...Tweaked back pops along the NH/MA border based on current radar trends and HRRR. Could see a brief shower or sprinkle in the srn tier of NH counties just before or around daybreak, but the overall trend is to keep the precip S of the CWA. Also lowered winds a bit through 10-12Z as they are diminishing now and will have to wait until the wave passes passes in the morning to pick up again. Update...S/wv trof moving thru the Ern Great Lakes is forcing an area of rnfl thru NY state at this hour. Current regional radar matches hi-res model guidance well...and so I will keep chance to slight chance PoP for Srn NH as some of this may clip the area. More like is that CAA behind the trof and fresh pool of cool...low level moisture will support renewed upslope snow showers late tonight thru Mon. Lower elevations will likely warm up Mon and change to rain showers...but highest elevations could see another couple of inches of accumulations. Previous discussion...Clearing will gradually continue with upslope snow showers continuing for a few more hours over the west, northwest facing higher terrain. Cold air has arrived with mins expected in the 20s overnight in the mountains. Some clouds may spill into southern sections late tonight as a short wave rotates through the base of the trough. There is a small chance for showers, mainly in southern NH and southern York County during the late night hours.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... Clouds may continue over southern section early before the short wave quickly exits to our east. However, there will be a reinforcing shot of cold air advection during the day. This will allow for scattered upslope snow showers in the mountains and additional cloud cover over northern and central sections. The nearby presence of the upper level low will allow for a continuation of chilly and windy conditions Monday night. Plenty of cloudiness is expected outside the downslope areas with scattered snow showers continuing. Sufficient wind field Monday night to prevent frost along coastal York and Rockingham counties. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The models remain in decent agreement on the longwave pattern through late next week. The upper trough initially over the northeast CONUS will gradually lift out into the maritimes for the second half of the work week. An upper ridge will briefly traverse the region Thursday. By early Friday...shortwave energy will approach from the Great Lakes and eventually carve out another upper trough over the eastern CONUS as we head into next weekend. Overall...the upper pattern will support temperatures near or slightly below average for the period. In the dailies...low pressure surface and aloft over eastern Canada will provide cool unsettled weather in cyclonic flow...with the most persistent clouds and precipitation across the higher terrain. By Wednesday night...clearing and cold as heights begin to rise with arrival of high pressure. Thursday looks to be the pick of the week with a sunny start as the ridge crests across the area. Clouds will be on the increase during the afternoon from west-to- east ahead of our next disturbance approaching from the Great Lakes. We`ll see light overrunning precipitation arrive Thursday night. The forecast thermal properties across the higher terrain suggest it could begin as some wet snow and sleet before transitioning to plain rain. Onshore flow and a slow-moving frontal system promise a damp cool day to round out the workweek. While the numericals continue to diverge on shortwave timing and strength for the upcoming weekend...proximity of the longwave trough supports a cool and unsettled weekend for the forecast area. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term...VFR conditions expected in all southern and downslope areas this evening, while in the mountains mvfr conditions are expected in scattered rain and snow showers. Conditions will improve to VFR in the mountains overnight. All areas will be VFR on Monday and Monday night. Long Term... Tue - Wed...Areas of MVFR psb mainly in mtn -shra/-shsn. Tues...Daytime NW sfc wnd gusting to 25 kt. && .MARINE... Short Term...A persistent West flow will keep Gales over the outer waters into tonight. Strong SCA conditions are expected in the bays through tonight. On Monday the west gradient winds will continue but will not be as strong. A SCA for the outer waters on Monday will likely be needed while in the bays, conditions should remain just below criteria. Long Term... Tue - Wed...Small Craft conditions are likely. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ151-153. Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ150-152- 154.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Cempa SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.