Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KGYX 130115
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
815 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017
A cold front will cross the region tonight. High pressure will
build in from the west Friday through Saturday. High pressure will
shift offshore Saturday night and a weak cold front will drop
south through the area early Sunday. High pressure will build in
behind the front Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. High
pressure will remain over the region through Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --805 pm update: Dropped all pops to eliminate showers for all
southern and central areas. Radar shows just a few lingering
showers left in the mountains. Continuing the patchy fog over
central and eastern areas of Maine as mixing and drier air mass
with lowering dewpoints should commence over NH in the next hour
or two and work into ME by midnight. Temps near their daily highs
for the day with some close to records for the day at this time.
Temps will begin falling though in the next several hours from
west to east as cooler air works rapidly east behind the trof and
surface cold front.
630 pm update: The bulk of showers are currently moving offshore.
Drier air in lower to mid levels upstream quickly spreading east.
Saturated low level moisture still occurring in parts of central
and eastern Maine producing patchy dense fog but expect this
moisture to quickly get mixed out as south winds become southwest
and then west over the next 3-6 hours. Models and trends all agree
on very dry air to work across all areas beginning around
midnight. Made some adjustments to reflect current conditions of
clouds and scattered showers but with rapid clearing from west to
east around or shortly after midnight as winds slowly shift to the
west with the passage of an upper trof and associated cold front.
A cold front will gradually push southeast through the region
this evening. Fairly extensive area of light to moderate rain
currently pushing into the region from the southwest ahead of this
boundary and should last through the early evening hours. Expect
shower activity to gradually taper off during the late evening
with the front pushing offshore around midnight. Behind the front
expect clearing skies downwind of the mountains as downslope winds
kick in behind the front. Looking for variable clouds in the north
with a few lingering snow showers. Lows overnight will range
through the 20s north and lower to mid 30s south.
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Strong and gusty northwest winds will usher in much colder air
into the region on Friday as high pressure builds in from the
west. Looking for variable cloudiness in the mountains with
perhaps a stray flurry. Elsewhere skies will be mostly sunny.
Expect high temps to be reached during the late morning before
falling in the afternoon. Highs will range through the 20s north
and 30s south.
Winds will drop off Friday evening as high pressure continues to
build in from the west. Should see good radiational cooling
overnight and have gone a few degrees below what the coldest
guidance was offering. Expect lows of 5 to 10 below north and below
to 5 above south.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure settles off the Mid Atlantic coastline
Saturday. This will be followed by the passage of a strong cold
front late Saturday night and early Sunday. Have deviated from
superblend and increased pops over the higher terrain due to a
favorable upslope northwest flow and strong cold air advection.
Otherwise, mainly dry conditions will continue outside the
mountains as another polar high pressure system builds south from
Canada and becomes situated over Maine Sunday night. Radiational
cooling may allow for temperatures dropping below current forecast
guidance with readings below zero possible in the north. Have
dropped readings a few degrees as this appears to be a target of
The surface ridge will slowly exit to the east by Tuesday. This
will allow for yet another area of low pressure to pass well to
our west, bringing mostly rain to the region the midweek next
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...Areas of mvfr/ifr ceilings this evening...improving
to VFR after midnight. VFR Friday through Saturday.
Long Term...VFR conditions gradually lower to IFR by late Tuesday
into Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Short Term...Continuing SCA`s for outer waters and bays overnight
with a Gale watch for Friday.
Long Term...SCA winds expected on Saturday with Gale force winds
possible by Wednesday of next week. This will be associated with
strong southerly winds with low pressure passing over the Great
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ150>154.
Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for