Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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377 FXUS61 KGYX 222147 AAA AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 547 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The remnants of Jose will meander well south of Cape Cod into the weekend, gradually weakening with time. Meanwhile, a large building ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather across our region through the weekend and into early next week. We`ll see a very nice stretch of dry and unseasonably warm weather with temperatures running well above normal Saturday through at least Monday. A front will remain nearly stationary north of our region Wednesday, before sweeping south as a cold front on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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5:50 PM Update... A few showers from Jose are brushing coastal and southern NH as well as southern York County in Maine. These showers will gradually move offshore the next few hours as Jose shifts away. Much drier air in place (dew points in the 30s and 40s) will allow temperatures to fall quickly in areas without cloud cover. Winds should also drop off after sunset. No major changes to the forecast except to add fog to additional valleys and adjust PoPs. Previous discussion... Jose remains quasi-stationary well south of Cape Cod. The northern cloud shield made its way into southern areas and will linger through this evening. Across central and northern areas the clear skies will gradually work further south into southern areas toward morning as the ridge of high pressure will continue to slowly build across the area. Clear skies and winds become near calm over central and northern areas will mean cool low temps in the lower 50s while southern areas will remain in the lower 60s due to the cloud cover. Valley fog once again expected along the CT River Valley.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Like a broken record, Jose remains nearly stationary well south of Cape Cod. Meanwhile, a large ridge of building high pressure into the region will dominate the weather Saturday and Saturday night with clear skies and much warmer temps. Highs will reach into the 80s most areas with overnight lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The main focus in the long term portion of the forecast will be late-season heat Sunday and how long that lasts. Sunday will indeed be very warm to hot with highs well into the 80s to around 90 in spots which will be record-tying or record-breaking heat in some areas, most notably Concord NH (record for Sunday there is 90). Forecast problems arise on Monday as some guidance (like the GFS and NAM) are suggesting a backdoor front cools us down significant. However, the ECMWF still stays very warm. Right now I think the ECMWF has a better handle on the deep layer ridge position overhead and therefore a better handle on short wave progression that could be responsible for backdoor front movement. For now the ECMWF is stronger with the ridge and keeps the region (except the immediate coast) quite warm Monday right through Tue. Have used a blend of guidance maxes and mins but gave the ECMWF much greater weight. Will continue to watch closely, however as we all know how easy it is for denser low level cool air to slip on down from the northeast. Otherwise, it should remain dry through Tuesday. A cold front looks to approach from the west Wed/Thu with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, probably more likely Wed. Thereafter, much cooler weather arrives as Maria passes well out to sea. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /through Saturday/...VFR conditions except some MVFR cigs over southern and coastal areas of ME/NH through the early evening. LIFR conditions develop 06z-13z Sat along the CT River Valley once again otherwise VFR. Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions are expected Sunday through Tuesday, with IFR valley fog likely at night in the interior. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Wednesday. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Saturday night/...The remnants of Jose will remain nearly stationary well south of Cape Cod through Saturday. This will mean SCA conditions are expected to continue over the outer waters through Saturday, mostly in the form of Haz seas, except southernmost areas where gusty winds may continue. In Casco Bay...swells of 3-6 ft continue along the outer harbor areas so a SCA due to hazardous seas will be needed through Saturday morning. Long Term...Sub-SCA conditions are likely Sunday into early midweek. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Long period swells from the remnants of Jose will continue through through Saturday. Some minor beach erosion remains possible. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...High Surf Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for MEZ023>027. NH...High Surf Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for NHZ014. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 1 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ150-152-153. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Hanes SHORT TERM...Marine LONG TERM...Ekster

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