Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 300025 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 725 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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725 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. HAVE UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND POPS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. PREVIOUSLY... LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA THIS EVENING...WITH SNOW BREAKING OUT FROM W-E AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS EWD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. PARTS OF NH COULD SEE UP TN INCH OR SO BY THE MORNING COMMUTE...BUT BULK OF SNOWFALL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE MORNING. MINS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...MORE SO IN THE EAST...WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR A LITTLE LONGER...BUT SW ABV THE BOUNDARY LYR AND A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD START SET TEMPS ON THE RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... 500MB TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE ERN CONUS AND PHASES WITH SRN STREAM WAVE WHILE GETTING REINFORCING SHOT OF ENERGY FROM UPSTREAM. THIS WILL TILT THE TROUGH NEG AND CLOSE IT OFF THE 500 MB LOW ALLOWING SFC LOW TO INTENSIFY AND MID LVL SYSTEM TO CLOSE OFF. THIS WILL GENERATE SOME DEFORMATION AND BANDING FRI AFTERNOON AND EVE ACROSS ME...WHICH WILL LKLY SPILL OVER INTO ERN NH. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE...OVERALL SHOWED MORE QPF...AND HAVE THUS SNOW AMTS HAVE INCREASED AS WELL...AND EXPANDED THE WARNING INTO ERN NH. HEAVIEST SNOW WOULD BE FOUND N AND E OF PORTLAND FROM FRI AFT THRU FRI EVENING WHERE 8-12" WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS. THE BANDING COULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2" HOUR. THRU THE STORMS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...BUT NW FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL PICK UP LATE FRI NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES RAPID CYCLOGENESIS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE AS IT EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SNOW WILL WIND DOWN OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. CLEARING...BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW. 12Z MODEL SUITE IS THEN IN BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ARE ALSO CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT WHICH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY FOLLOW THIS PROGRESSIVE AND POSITIVELY TILTED SYSTEM. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR THIS EVE DETERIORATES TO IFR OR LOWER AT TIMES IN SN AND LOW CIGS...PERSISTING INTO FRI NIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE FRI NIGHT IN KLEB/KHIE/KHIE...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SAT MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE. LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS ALL AIRPORTS SATURDAY AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WATER WILL BE QUIET THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT NW FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE FRI EVE...WITH GALES EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. LONG TERM...GALES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ007-008-012-013-018>020-023-024. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ009-014-021-022-025>028. NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NHZ001-002-004-006-009-010-013-014. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NHZ003-005-007-008-011-012-015. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE NEAR TERM...CEMPA SHORT TERM...CEMPA LONG TERM...CANNON

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