Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 140823 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 423 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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WARM ADVECTION REGIME HAS KEPT NH AND MAINE IN STRATUS AND FOG ALL NIGHT AND WILL HAVE A HARD TIME BREAKING UP UNTIL GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. TODAY LOOKS WARM BUT GUSTY WITH WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AGAIN...THIS WILL HELP WITH WARMING AS WE ARE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND THUS THE RAIN...HOLDING IT OFF UNTIL DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING FOR NH AND MAINE. THAT LEAVES US WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO NEAR MID 70S SOUTHWEST (!)...INCREASING CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF WIND. WE ARE OUT OF RANGE FOR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WE WOULD HAVE TO BEAT 77 IN PORTLAND AND 84 IN CONCORD...BUT STILL SHOULD BE QUITE LOVELY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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THE WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AS INSULATING CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...LEAVING THE COLD FRONT ESSENTIALLY STALLED FOR 12 HOURS AS THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAITS ON A KICKER SYSTEM TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA. DURING THIS TIME MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR FLOODING. THIS SETUP...ALONG WITH RECENT MILD TEMPERATURES AND EXISTING ICE JAMS... WILL CAUSE THE STILL SUBSTANTIAL SNOW PACK IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO MELT AND POSSIBLY FLOOD AREA RIVERS. THEREFORE A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WERE RAISED TO OVER AN INCH FOR ALL AREAS WITH THIS PACKAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING WAS INCLUDING ALL DAY TUESDAY AS THIS IS WHEN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE MAIN PRECIPITATION AXIS (COLD FRONT) AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST. THE FRONT FINALLY EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES EARLY WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARMISH DAY DESPITE THE FRONT AS WE GET PLENTY OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MORNING AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS COLD AIR WILL HAVE BEGUN TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY DAM ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WE MAY SEE LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES SUCH AS TEENS OVER NORTHERN NH AND MID 30S IN PLACES LIKE AUGUSTA. WEDNESDAY MORNING AROUND AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAY FALL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVER FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS AS COLD AIR CATCHES UP THE THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH COLD ADVECTION IN FULL FORCE. THIS IS A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT BY REGIONAL STANDARDS... WITH MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AND DRY AIR MOVES IN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING. WENT A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE AVERAGE GUIDANCE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR PROVIDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND A WIND SHIFTING TO ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE STORY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP COOLER AIR IN THE AREA ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40... SO A PERSISTENT EAST WIND WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING OUT OF THE 40S FOR AREAS WITH THE BEST COASTAL INFLUENCES ON FRIDAY. MADE ADJUSTMENTS BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES FOR COASTAL REGIONS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. FURTHER INLAND... ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES... TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE 50S AGAIN. LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY... WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE LOW APPROACHES. SO EXPECT THE COOL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE... WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR AVAILABLE FOR SOME SNOW IN THE INTERIOR AREAS ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. BUT COASTAL AREAS SHOULD STAY RAIN. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY... EXPECT A WESTERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO NEW ENGLAND... PUSHING THE MARINE AIR BACK OFFSHORE AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP AGAIN BACK INTO THE MID 50S.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...CURRENT WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME HAS FOSTERED FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING TO MVFR AS WEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY. EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WILL BE ROCKLAND AND PERHAPS CONCORD WHICH SEEM MORE ENTRENCHED IN DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTS TODAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 20G30KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT NOW LOOKS TO START CLOSER TO 12Z TUE FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT MAYBE KRKD WHICH MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS EARLIER ON. LONG TERM... AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERE SHOULD BE AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS CONDITIONS QUIET FOR A FEW DAYS... BUT AN ONSHORE FLOW COULD BRING MARINE CLOUDS INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD MEAN SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM TUESDAY...AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM WEDNESDAY....AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE WATERS. EXPECT OVERALL CONDITIONS TO BE ROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AS WELL. LONG TERM... NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 35 KT BEFORE SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS MAINE WILL CAUSE WINDS OVER THE WATERS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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SNOW MELT CONTINUES ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MOUNTAIN AREAS... CAUSING ELEVATED LEVELS IN JUST ABOUT ALL THE MAJOR RIVERS. THE EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL ONLY ADD TO THE WATER LEVELS IN THE RIVERS AND INCREASE THE SNOW MELT... LIKELY CAUSING SOME RIVERS TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THERE ARE ALREADY A FEW RIVERS FLIRTING WITH FLOOD STAGE. THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND WEST LEBANON HAVE BOTH HAD DAILY CRESTS CORRESPONDING TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE OF SNOW MELT. THE CRESTS HAVE GOTTEN HIGHER EACH EVENING AND BOTH LOCATIONS COULD BE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN ON TUESDAY COULD CAUSE BOTH LOCATIONS TO RISE EVEN HIGHER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON BOTH LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY TODAY AND ISSUE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS WHEN FLOODING APPEARS IMMINENT.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014- 018>028. NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ150>154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
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&& $$ HANES/KIMBLE

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