Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 240120 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 920 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will approach from the southwest tonight and will lift into southern New England on Friday. A cold front will push south through the region Friday night followed by high pressure on Saturday and Saturday night. High pressure will shift east on Sunday. Low pressure will slowly approach from the west Sunday night and will pass out to sea south of the region by Monday night. Another area of low pressure will approach from the west on Tuesday and will slowly work its way into New England on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update...A few minor changes to account for latest observational trends. Based on cirrus spilling into the area...the upper trof axis is just about overhead. This will slide SE overnight...and so temps will be a race to radiationally cool before thicker clouds arrive. Previous discussion...High pressure will shift east tonight as a broad area of weak over-running pushes in from the west. After a mostly clear evening expect clouds to be on the increase from west to east. Expect the majority of the night to be dry but a stray snow showers may edge into western zones by morning. Lows will range from the single numbers north to the lower to mid teens south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Weak over-running will result in occasional light snow or snow showers Friday morning which will transition to rain in southern zones during the late morning and afternoon. Snow showers in the north may mix with a little sleet or rain in the afternoon. 12 hr QPF on the light side with just a tenth or two accumulating through Friday evening...so at the most only looking for an inch or two of snow accumulation...mainly in the mountains. High temperatures will range through the 30s to near 40 in the south. Showers or mixed precip will continue Friday night as a cold front slowly drops south through the region. Expect rain showers and mixed precip to change over to sleet or light snow as temps drop behind the front. Could see some additional light accumulation in the mountains and foothills with little if any accumulations in the south. Lows by saturday morning will range from the mid 20s north to the mid 30s south.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Active period expected over the weekend and into next week. A band of light mix of rain and snow will settle southward on Saturday as high pressure builds south from Canada. This moisture will reach about as far south as southern New England before returning northward in conjunction as a warm front on Sunday. With a dry polar high pressure system wedged in our area, ptype will most likely be snow over central and northern areas with some rain in the south. A few areas of sleet and freezing rain may come into play Sunday night as warm air moves in aloft and boundary layer temperatures fall to near or below 32 degrees. Low pressure will be moving over the Great Lakes during this period with a secondary area of low pressure developing in the Gulf of Maine by Monday. Yet another, slightly more vigorous short wave will allow for low pressure to move up the coastline during the midweek period. The Euro is the most progressive with this system while the Canadian and GFS hang it back further to the south. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term...VFR tonight. MVFR/IFR ceilings/vsby Friday and friday night. Long Term...A brief period of IFR conditions possible on Saturday over southern New Hampshire. More widespread IFR with possible LIFR conditions over all areas Sunday night through Tuesday. && .MARINE... Short Term...Continuing SCA`s through midnight. New set of SCA`s will likely be needed for Friday as southerly flow picks up. Long Term...Winds and seas will likely reach SCA thresholds early next week as low pressure passes south of Maine and New Hampshire. Gusty northwesterly winds will lead to SCA conditions Wednesday with a few gusts possibly into Gale Force. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ150>152- 154.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...Legro

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