Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 292327 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 727 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO THE MOUNTAINS...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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720 PM UPDATE: SCATTERED CONVECTION COMING TO AN END. LAST OF TWO CELLS ABOUT TO EXIT OFF THE COAST. LOWERED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING BASED ON TRENDS. MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST OBS DATA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: AT 18Z...THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND IS SITUATED FROM NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING ALLOWS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE. WITH CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND HAZE DEVELOPING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY IN MANY AREAS. THE SET UP FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL FEATURE HIGHER INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FORCING THEN TODAY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW STORMS BECOMING SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DRAINAGE FLOODING. THE FRONT AND CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY SWEEP QUICKLY OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL TRIGGER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH COOLER READINGS ALONG THE COASTLINE DUE TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ADDITIONAL SEA BREEZE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR NEXT TUESDAY. THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR THE 12Z RUN THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE 850 MB 0C LINE EVEN APPROACHES NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRI/...LCL MVFR PSBL IN WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA VCNTY OF KAUG AND KRKD THROUGH 00Z. AREAS OF MVFR AFT 00Z TONIGHT IN STRATUS AND FOG WITH LCL IFR PSBL BTWN 08 AND 12Z. AREAS OF MVFR BTWN 16Z THU AND 02Z FRI IN SHRA AND TSRA WITH LCL IFR IN +TSRA. AFT 00Z FRI...AREAS OF MVFR IN FG. LONG TERM...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. PRIOR TO THIS...PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING HOURS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WAVES AND WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH SCA CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE BAYS LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. LONG TERM...A RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MARINE SHORT TERM...MARINE

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