Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 280430 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1230 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A RATHER SUMMERY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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1225 AM...THIS UPDATES REFLECTS THE LIGHT SHRA MOVING ALONG THE SFC COLD FRONT AND THEIR EXIT TO THE EAST BY AROUND 06Z. OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH WIND SHIFTS FROM SW-NW BEHIND THE FRONT...NOT MUCH VELOCITY...AND THIS WILL CAUSE DRIER TO TRICKLE IN THROUGH SUNRISE...WHEN HEATING ALLOWS THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN AND CLEAR OUT THE LOW LVL MOISTURE. AS SUCH...COULD SEE A FAIR AMT OF CLOUDS AND PATCHY DEVELOPING ALMOST ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUSLY...WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE TSTMS FROM THE FCST FOR THE REST OF TNGT. STILL A TSTM IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT THE CHC WOULD BE LESS THAN 10 PCT. UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR SHRA ACROSS PARTS OF OUR SRN ZONES AND FRO ACTIVITY HEADING FOR THE N/MT ZONES. PUT IN F ACROSS THE CT VALLEY INTO NRN NH VALLEYS WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING WITH LGT WINDS LATER TNGT TO ALLOW FOR AREAS OF F TO FORM IN FAVORED VALLEYS. OTRW ANY CHANGES ONLY MINIMAL. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WHERE THE COOLER AIR MASS ARRIVES FIRST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH WHERE THE FNT MOVES BY LATE AND DOESN`T ALLOW THE NEW AIR MASS A CHC TO COOL THINGS DOWN YET.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... THE COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AMS TAKES HOLD AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL ALLOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THE CENTER OF THE COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE REGION THU NIGHT ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR FORECAST TEMPS WHICH WERE ALL WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF ONE ANOTHER. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FRIDAY WILL BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND BRING THE RETURN OF A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE STILL LOW EVEN THERE. ON SUNDAY...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE AND BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THIS THREAT WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS A FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT MAY HANG AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS...PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...VFR CONDS EXCEPT BRIEFLY LOWER IN ANY SHRA TIL AROUND 06Z...THEN IFR ALONG THE CT RIVER VALLEY INTO NRN NH VALLEYS LATE TNGT INTO EARLY THU MORNING IN AREAS OF FOG. THIS WILL AFFECT LEB AND HIE TAF SITES. .LONG TERM...SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALLOW FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES...MAINLY SUNDAY. && .MARINE... .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED AGAIN TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS, IF ANY, TO THE FCST FOR THE REST OF TNGT. ALREADY UPDATED TO REPLACE THE SCA FOR WINDS AND SEAS WITH AN SCA FOR JUST HAZARDOUS SEAS. BASED ON THE FCST WINDS WILL STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE PASSING OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OUT TO SEA WILL SEND SWELLS INTO OUR OUTER MOST WATERS...MAINLY AFFECTING THE OPEN WATERS SOUTH OF PENOBSCOT BAY. SEAS OF 3-6 FT ARE EXPECTED THERE. THE SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL COULD INCREASE TO COVER A LARGER AREA...AND WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FURTHER WEST BY THU NIGHT. .LONG TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CEMPA SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...

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