Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 050005 AAA AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 705 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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.UPDATE... TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP AFTER A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FALLING SOUTH OF NH AND THESE WILL WORK THEIR WAY TOWARDS NH AND SW MAINE OVERNIGHT AS BAROCLINIC ZONE PUSHES NORTH. HOWEVER MESOMODELS STILL SHOWING IT FALL JUST SHORT OF ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE BOUNDARY DRIFTS BACK SOUTH AROUND DAYBREAK. HAVE MAINTAINED POPS ACROSS FAR NORTH WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...OTHERWISE ADJUSTED SKY... TEMPERATURES... AND DEW POINTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
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&& PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO NOSE TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE TIME BEING THE REAL COLD PUSH REMAINS BACK ACROSS CANADA...AND WILL WAIT TO PUSH THRU UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH HAVE BLENDED 2 M TEMP GUIDANCE IN WITH THE MAV/MET FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. CAA WILL KEEP AT LEAST MARGINAL MIXING IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...AND I DON/T EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE. WITH THE PUSH OF COLD/DRY AIR UPSLOPE SHSN AND CLOUDS WILL COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A SERIES OF WAVES WILL RIPPLE ALONG THE SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT THRU THU NIGHT. THE FIRST OF WHICH...CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...ARRIVES EARLY THU. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME SCHC POP IN SRN NH ALONG THE MA BORDER. I REALLY DON/T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN SHSN ALONG THE BORDER IF PRECIP DOES FALL. THE SECOND WAVE ARRIVES LATE THU EVENING...AND SHOULD BE EVEN FARTHER S THAN THE FIRST. HIGH PRES BEGINS TO ASSERT MORE CONTROL OVER THE REGION...AND SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM N TO S. WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALIGNED OVERHEAD...EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE AND THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS TO FALL WELL BELOW ZERO. SIDED WITH THE COLDER MAV/MET GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PRETTY QUIET EXTENDED FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. DESPITE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN IN NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRONT WILL TAKE ALL DAY SATURDAY TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. WILL LIKELY INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT EXPECT ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY WITH THIS MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. SKIES CLEAR BRIEFLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE... BUT CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK CLIPPER APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT ONCE AGAIN EXPECT ANY AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE THE CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MAINE BY LATE IN THE DAY. QPF FORECAST TO BE LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST AREAS SEEING ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO WIND DOWN SUNDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE MARITIMES. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WARM FRONT PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BRUSH NORTHERN ZONES WITH CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE MAJORITY OF ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. NET AFFECT WILL BE A MODERATION IN TEMPS WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING HIGHS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. WARM AIR WILL STICK AROUND ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU FRI MORNING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCT SHSN ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS. LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VSBY SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THU NIGHT. WINDS GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES...WITH SEAS REMAINING RIGHT AROUND 5 FT. A PERIOD OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT. LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...

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